Estimating population and urban areas at risk of coastal hazards, 1990–2015: how data choices matter

The accurate estimation of population living in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) – and at heightened risk from sea level rise – is critically important for policymakers and risk managers worldwide. This characterization of potential exposure depends on robust representations not only of coastal elevation and spatial population data but also of settlements along the urban–rural continuum. The empirical basis for LECZ estimation has improved considerably in the 13 years since it was first estimated that 10 % of the world's population – and an even greater share of the urban population – lived in the LECZ (McGranahan et al., 2007a). Those estimates were constrained in several ways, not only most notably by a single 10 m LECZ but also by a dichotomous urban–rural proxy and population from a single source. This paper updates those initial estimates with newer, improved inputs and provides a range of estimates, along with sensitivity analyses that reveal the importance of understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying data. We estimate that between 750 million and nearly 1.1 billion persons globally, in 2015, live in the ≤ 10 m LECZ, with the variation depending on the elevation and population data sources used. The variations are considerably greater at more disaggregated levels, when finer elevation bands (e.g., the ≤ 5 m LECZ) or differing delineations between urban, quasi-urban and rural populations are considered. Despite these variations, there is general agreement that the LECZ is disproportionately home to urban dwellers and that the urban population in the LECZ has grown more than urban areas outside the LECZ since 1990. We describe the main results across these new elevation, population and urban-proxy data sources in order to guide future research and improvements to characterizing risk in low-elevation coastal zones (https://doi.org/10.7927/d1x1-d702, CIESIN and CIDR, 2021)

Global harmonization of urbanization measures: Proceed with care

By 2050, two-thirds of the world’s population is expected to be living in cities and towns, a marked increase from today’s level of 55 percent. If the general trend is unmistakable, efforts to measure it precisely have been beset with difficulties: the criteria defining urban areas, cities and towns differ from one country to the next and can also change over time for any given country. The past decade has seen great progress toward the long-awaited goal of scientifically comparable urbanization measures, thanks to the combined efforts of multiple disciplines. These efforts have been organized around what is termed the “statistical urbanization” concept, whereby urban areas are defined by population density, contiguity and total population size. Data derived from remote-sensing methods can now supply a variety of spatial proxies for urban areas defined in this way. However, it remains to be understood how such proxies complement, or depart from, meaningful country-specific alternatives. In this paper, we investigate finely resolved population census and satellite-derived data for the United States, Mexico and India, three countries with widely varying conceptions of urban places and long histories of debate and refinement of their national criteria. At the extremes of the urban–rural continuum, we find evidence of generally good agreement between the national and remote sensing-derived measures (albeit with variation by country), but identify significant disagreements in the middle ranges where today’s urban policies are often focused

The heterogeneity and change in the urban structure of metropolitan areas in the United States, 1990–2010

While the population of the United States has been predominantly urban for nearly 100 years, periodic transformations of the concepts and measures that define urban places and population have taken place, complicating over-time comparisons. We compare and combine data series of officially-designated urban areas, 1990–2010, at the census block-level within Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with a satellite-derived consistent series on built-up area from the Global Human Settlement Layer to create urban classes that characterize urban structure and provide estimates of land and population. We find considerable heterogeneity in urban form across MSAs, even among those of similar population size, indicating the inherent difficulties in urban definitions. Over time, we observe slightly declining population densities and increasing land and population in areas captured only by census definitions or low built-up densities, constrained by the geography of place. Nevertheless, deriving urban proxies from satellite-derived built-up areas is promising for future efforts to create spatio-temporally consistent measures for urban land to guide urban demographic change analysis

People and infrastructure: Multi-scale assessment of coastal and fluvial flood exposure in India

India is one of the world\u27s most flood-prone countries, with present-day risks likely to be exacerbated by climate change in the coming decades. The type of risk varies by location, with the lives, homes, and livelihoods of residents of India\u27s coastal megacities threatened by coastal floods and storm surges while village-dwellers residing in rural flood plains may additionally lose both crops and livestock. Schools and health facilities throughout the country are also at risk. This multi-scale study employs several datasets, from multiple domains, to generate high-resolution estimates of potential exposure to fluvial and coastal floods for 1) urban and rural populations, 2) health facilities, and 3) educational facilities. Our results, presented at the state level, suggest high exposure to fluvial flooding with about 184 million or more than 1:7 of India\u27s population at risk. This proportion is somewhat higher for rural dwellers (15.8%) compared with urban residents (14.2%). Urban residents, however, are much more likely to be affected by coastal floods, likely due to the high population densities of India\u27s coastal megacities. In total, around 19,218 (15%) of health and 34,519 (18%) of educational facilities are exposed to either coastal or fluvial flood risks. A spatially detailed, locally refined, comprehensive flood risk assessment such as this is critical to inform and target public policy and guide disaster risk reduction plans. By improving infrastructure, increasing awareness, and developing proactive, targeted, and inclusive flood plans, communities can build resilience

Urbanization in India: Population and Urban Classification Grids for 2011

India is the world’s most populous country, yet also one of the least urban. It has long been known that India’s official estimates of urban percentages conflict with estimates derived from alternative conceptions of urbanization. To date, however, the detailed spatial and settlement boundary data needed to analyze and reconcile these differences have not been available. This paper presents gridded estimates of population at a resolution of 1 km along with two spatial renderings of urban areas—one based on the official tabulations of population and settlement types (i.e., statutory towns, outgrowths, and census towns) and the other on remotely-sensed measures of built-up land derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer. We also cross-classified the census data and the remotely-sensed data to construct a hybrid representation of the continuum of urban settlement. In their spatial detail, these materials go well beyond what has previously been available in the public domain, and thereby provide an empirical basis for comparison among competing conceptual models of urbanization

sj-xlsx-1-eau-10.1177_09562478231192176 – Supplemental material for Is rapid urbanization of low-elevation deltas undermining adaptation to climate change? A global review

Supplemental material, sj-xlsx-1-eau-10.1177_09562478231192176 for Is rapid urbanization of low-elevation deltas undermining adaptation to climate change? A global review by Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk, Sarah Colenbrander, Hasim Engin and Kytt MacManus in Environment & Urbanization</p

Corneal collagen crosslinking for ectasia after laser in situ keratomileusis: Long-term results

PURPOSE: To report the long-term results of corneal collagen crosslinking (CXL) treatment for post-laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) ectasia

Same-Day Intrastromal Corneal Ring Segment and Collagen Cross-Linking for Ectasia after Laser In Situ Keratomileusis: Long-Term Results

PURPOSE: To report the long-term results of combined same-day intrastromal corneal ring segment placement and corneal collagen cross-linking (CXL) for postoperative laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) ectasia