Modeling the impact of patient treatment preference on health outcomes in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Aims: Model how moving from current disease-modifying drug (DMD) prescribing patterns for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) observed in the United Kingdom (UK) to prescribing patterns based on patient preferences would impact health outcomes over time. Materials and methods: A cohort-based Markov model was used to measure the effect of DMDs on long-term health outcomes for individuals with RRMS. Data from a discrete choice experiment were used to estimate the market shares of DMDs based on patient preferences (i.e. preference shares). These preference shares and real-world UK market shares were used to calculate the effect of prescribing behavior on relapses, disability progression, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The incremental benefit of patient-centered prescribing over current practices for the UK RRMS population was then estimated; scenario and sensitivity analyses were also conducted. Results: Compared to current prescribing practices, when UK patients with RRMS were treated following patient preferences, health outcomes were improved. This population was expected to experience 501,690 relapses and gain 1,003,263 discounted QALYs over 50 years under patient-centered prescribing practices compared to 538,417 relapses and 958,792 discounted QALYs under current practices (−6.8% and +4.6%, respectively). Additionally, less disability progression was observed when prescribed treatment was based on patient preferences. In a scenario analysis where only oral treatments were considered, the results were similar, although the magnitude of benefit was smaller. Number of relapses was most sensitive to how the annualized relapse rate was modeled; disability progression was most sensitive to mortality rate assumptions. Limitations: Treatment efficacy estimates applied to various models in this study were based on data derived from clinical trials, rather than real-world data; the impact of patient-centered prescribing on treatment adherence and/or switching was not modeled. Conclusions: The population of UK RRMS patients may experience overall health gains if patient preferences are better incorporated into prescribing practices

Measuring the Neutrino Cross Section Using 8 years of Upgoing Muon Neutrinos Observed with IceCube

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory detects neutrinos at energies orders of magnitude higher than those available to current accelerators. Above 40 TeV, neutrinos traveling through the Earth will be absorbed as they interact via charged current interactions with nuclei, creating a deficit of Earth-crossing neutrinos detected at IceCube. The previous published results showed the cross section to be consistent with Standard Model predictions for 1 year of IceCube data. We present a new analysis that uses 8 years of IceCube data to fit the ν$_{μ}$ absorption in the Earth, with statistics an order of magnitude better than previous analyses, and with an improved treatment of systematic uncertainties. It will measure the cross section in three energy bins that span the range 1 TeV to 100 PeV. We will present Monte Carlo studies that demonstrate its sensitivity