Design interventions, prediction and science in the sustainable transition of large, complex systems,

The way that human beings live and consume the natural and environmental resources of the planet are not sustainable. Sustainability involves changes in individual beliefs, expectations, values and behaviours at the microlevel, changes in policy at the macrolevel of governments, and changes in the design of objects, social organisations and structures at the mesolevels. Design for sustainability has a big challenge: we need a ninety percent gain in energy and material efficiencies over the next thirty years. Bottom-up and top-down design and policy interventions are needed at all levels. These multilevel dynamics interact in ways not understood by conventional social and natural science: human beings and their physical environment form a bewilderingly complex multilevel system of systems of systems. The science of complex systems must, necessarily, conduct experiments through policy: scientists do not have the mandate or the money to perform large interventionist experiments. Policy can be construed as designing the future. Thus complex systems are entangled in both policy and design. We conclude that (i) the design professions impact on the community at all levels, and that 'good? design at any level is relative to design at all other levels, and the emergent design of the whole, (ii) design, complex systems science and policy must all work together to create a sustainable future, and (iii) policy and complex systems science must progress through a designerly way of thinking to achieve sustainable design coherently applied at all levels in the complex multilevel system of humankind living on planet earth in the decades, centuries and millennia of the future. This view puts design and complexity science at the centre of policy for sustainability

Relationships between estimated autozygosity and complex traits in the UK Biobank

<div><p>Inbreeding increases the risk of certain Mendelian disorders in humans but may also reduce fitness through its effects on complex traits and diseases. Such inbreeding depression is thought to occur due to increased homozygosity at causal variants that are recessive with respect to fitness. Until recently it has been difficult to amass large enough sample sizes to investigate the effects of inbreeding depression on complex traits using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data in population-based samples. Further, it is difficult to infer causation in analyses that relate degree of inbreeding to complex traits because confounding variables (e.g., education) may influence both the likelihood for parents to outbreed and offspring trait values. The present study used runs of homozygosity in genome-wide SNP data in up to 400,000 individuals in the UK Biobank to estimate the proportion of the autosome that exists in autozygous tracts—stretches of the genome which are identical due to a shared common ancestor. After multiple testing corrections and controlling for possible sociodemographic confounders, we found significant relationships in the predicted direction between estimated autozygosity and three of the 26 traits we investigated: age at first sexual intercourse, fluid intelligence, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second. Our findings corroborate those of several published studies. These results may imply that these traits have been associated with Darwinian fitness over evolutionary time. However, some of the autozygosity-trait relationships were attenuated after controlling for background sociodemographic characteristics, suggesting that alternative explanations for these associations have not been eliminated. Care needs to be taken in the design and interpretation of ROH studies in order to glean reliable information about the genetic architecture and evolutionary history of complex traits.</p></div

Nausea and vomiting in pregnancy (NVP) is not just 'Morning Sickness' : data from a prospective cohort study

Background: Nausea and vomiting in pregnancy is usually called ‘morning sickness’. This is felt by sufferers to trivialise the condition. Symptoms have been described as occurring both before and after noon, but daily symptom patterns have not been clearly described and statistically modelled to enable the term ‘morning sickness’ to be accurately analysed. Aim: To describe the daily variation in nausea and vomiting symptoms during early pregnancy in a group of sufferers. Design and setting: A prospective cohort study of females recruited from 15 May 2014 to 17 February 2017 by Swiss Precision Diagnostics (SPD) Development Company Limited, which was researching hormone levels in early pregnancy and extended its study to include the description of pregnancy symptoms. Method: Daily symptom diaries of nausea and vomiting were kept by females who were trying to conceive. They also provided daily urine samples, which when analysed enabled the date of ovulation to be determined. Data from 256 females who conceived during the first month of the study are included in this article. Daily symptom patterns and changes in daily patterns by week of pregnancy were modelled. Functional data analysis was used to produce estimated symptom probability functions. Results: There was a peak probability of nausea in the morning, a lower but sustained probability of nausea throughout the day, and a slight peak in the evening. Vomiting had a defined peak incidence in the morning. Conclusion: Referring to nausea and vomiting in pregnancy as simply ‘morning sickness’ is inaccurate, simplistic, and therefore unhelpful

Exploring the acceptability of a clinical decision rule to identify paediatric burns due to child abuse or neglect

Objective An evidence based clinical decision rule (CDR) was developed from a systematic review and epidemiological study to identify burns due to child maltreatment (abuse or neglect). Prior to an implementation evaluation, we aim to explore clinicians' views of the CDR, the likelihood that it would influence their management and factors regarding its acceptability. Methods A semistructured questionnaire exploring demographics, views of the CDR and data collection pro forma, ability to recognise maltreatment and likelihood of following CDR recommended child protection (CP) action, was administered to 55 doctors and nurses in eight emergency departments and two burns units. Recognition of maltreatment was assessed via four fictitious case vignettes. Analysis Fisher's exact test and variability measured by coefficient of unalikeability. Results The majority of participants found the CDR and data collection pro forma useful (45/55, 81.8%). Only five clinicians said that they would not take the action recommended by the CDR (5/54, 9.3%). Lower grade doctors were more likely to follow the CDR recommendations (p=0.04) than any other grade, while senior doctors would consider it within their decision making. Factors influencing uptake include: brief training, background to CDR development and details of appropriate actions. Conclusions It is apparent that clinicians are willing to use a CDR to assist in identifying burns due to child maltreatment. However, it is clear that an implementation evaluation must encompass the influential variables identified to maximise uptake

Efficient, designable, and broad-bandwidth optical extinction via aspect-ratio-tailored silver nanodisks

Subwavelength resonators, ranging from single atoms to metallic nanoparticles, typically exhibit a narrow-bandwidth response to optical excitations. We computationally design and experimentally synthesize tailored distributions of silver nanodisks to extinguish light over broad and varied frequency windows. We show that metallic nanodisks are two-to-ten-times more efficient in absorbing and scattering light than common structures, and can approach fundamental limits to broadband scattering for subwavelength particles. We measure broadband extinction per volume that closely approaches theoretical predictions over three representative visible-range wavelength windows, confirming the high efficiency of nanodisks and demonstrating the collective power of computational design and experimental precision for developing new photonics technologies

Asthma management in British South Asian children: an application of the candidacy framework to a qualitative understanding of barriers to effective and accessible asthma care

Abstract Background In the UK, people of South Asian origin with asthma experience excess morbidity, with hospitalisation rates three times those of the majority White population and evidence suggests that South Asian children with asthma are more likely to suffer uncontrolled symptoms and hospital admissions with acute asthma compared to White British children. This paper draws on data from The Management and Interventions for Asthma (MIA) study to identify the operation of barriers to optimal care and good asthma control for South Asian children. Methods The MIA study followed a multi-phase, iterative, participatory design, underpinned by the socio-ecological model. Findings presented here are from face-to face, semi-structured interviews with South Asian (Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin) parents and carers of a child with asthma (n = 49). Interviews were conducted in English or relevant South Asian languages using specially trained community facilitators. Data were transcribed verbatim and analysed according to the principles of interpretive thematic analysis, facilitated by the use of NVivo. Results Seven dimensions of candidacy are identified: identification of candidacy; navigation; the permeability of asthma services; appearances at health services; adjudications; offers and resistance and operating conditions in the local production of candidacy. The analysis demonstrates several ways in which a potential lack of alignment between the priorities and competencies of British South Asian families and the organization of health services combine to create vulnerabilities and difficulties in effectively managing childhood asthma. Conclusions Healthcare systems have a responsibility to develop services that are sensitive and appropriate to the needs of their communities. In South Asian communities, further efforts are required to raise awareness of symptoms and effectively communicate how, when and where to seek help for children. There is a need for improved diagnosis and consistent, effectively communicated information, especially regarding medication. Parents made several suggestions for improving services: presentations about asthma at easily accessible community venues; an advice centre or telephone helpline to answer queries; opportunities for sharing experiences with other families; having information provided in South Asian languages; longer GP appointments; extended use of asthma nurses; and better education for healthcare professionals to ensure consistency of care and advice

Written evidence from the NCECJS to the HoC Justice Committee: implications of Brexit for justice

Forensic biometric sharing within the EU (Prüm) is a specialist form of cooperation. Nevertheless research into this activity and the context in which it occurs places some of the implications of Brexit into sharp relief: a) Brexit (in any form) will not result in a major reduction in the need for effective criminal justice and security cooperation. The UK will still receive millions of foreign citizens a year and a very small proportion of them will be serious criminals who present major threats. The challenge is to identify this small group within the generally law-abiding and tax-paying crowd. b) The effectiveness, continued extension and form of such cooperation will also have a major impact on the safety and rights of UK citizens abroad, whether they are in the diaspora or simply travelling for work or holidays. c) The value of individual criminal justice and security cooperation agreements (however good) will only be realised fully within a comprehensive framework (e.g. with access to the European Arrest Warrant (EAW)) that is underpinned institutionally (e.g. by Europol and Eurojust) and subject to parliamentary and legal scrutiny. d) UK global economic and political status was significantly reduced on 23rd June and a badly handled Brexit will further diminish this country’s influence. There will be little or no scope for UK bespoke arrangements for police and judicial cooperation or scientific standardisation. e) The resilience of both UK science and technology, and our criminal justice system – including responses to transnational cybercrime - are likely to be weakened significantly if British forensic scientists are no longer influential within EU collaborative scientific research, professional working groups and standardisation decisions. Opting-out of the EU arrangements, such as Prüm, the European Criminal Records Information System (ECRIS) and EAW, to which the UK belongs only after recent Protocol 36 reviews by criminal justice professionals, government and Parliament would be inexplicable and may prove to be reckless

Analyzing Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in California Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased over the past decades and are linked to global temperature increases and climate change. These changes in climate have been suggested to have varying effects, and uncertain consequences, on agriculture, water supply, weather, sea-level rise, the economy, and energy. To counteract the trend of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, the state of California has passed the California Global Warming Act of 2006 (AB-32). This requires that by the year 2020, GHG (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) emissions will be reduced to 1990 levels. To quantify GHG fluxes, emission inventories are routinely compiled for the State of California (e.g., CH4 emissions from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) Project). The major sources of CO2 and CH4 in the state of California are: transportation, electricity production, oil and gas extraction, cement plants, agriculture, landfills/waste, livestock, and wetlands. However, uncertainties remain in these emission inventories because many factors contributing to these processes are poorly quantified. To alleviate these uncertainties, a synergistic approach of applying air-borne measurements and chemical transport modeling (CTM) efforts to provide a method of quantifying local and regional GHG emissions will be performed during this study. Additionally, in order to further understand the temporal and spatial distributions of GHG fluxes in California and the impact these species have on regional climate, CTM simulations of daily variations and seasonality of total column CO2 and CH4 will be analyzed. To assess the magnitude and spatial variation of GHG emissions and to identify local hot spots, airborne measurements of CH4 and CO2 were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in January and February 2013 during the Discover-AQ-CA study. High mixing ratios of GHGs were observed in-flight with a high degree of spatial variability. To provide an additional method to quantify GHG emissions, and analyze AJAX measurement data, the GEOS-Chem CTM is used to simulate SFBA/SJV GHG measurements. A nested-grid version of GEOS-Chem will be applied and utilizes varying emission inventories and model parameterizations to simulate GHG fluxes/emissions. The model considers CO2 fluxes from fossil fuel use, biomass/biofuel burning, terrestrial and oceanic biosphere exchanges, shipping and aviation, and production from the oxidation of carbon monoxide, CH4, and non-methane volatile organic carbons. The major sources of CH4 simulated in GEOS-Chem are domesticated animals, rice fields, natural gas leakage, natural gas venting/flaring (oil production), coal mining, wetlands, and biomass burning. Preliminary results from the comparison between available observations (e.g., AJAX and CALGEM CH4 emission maps) and GEOS-Chem results will be presented, along with a discussion of CO2 and CH4 source apportionment and the use of the GEOS-Chem-adjoint to perform inverse GHG modeling