Impact of New Madrid Seismic Zone Earthquakes on the Central USA, Vol. 1 and 2

The information presented in this report has been developed to support the Catastrophic Earthquake Planning Scenario workshops held by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Four FEMA Regions (Regions IV, V, VI and VII) were involved in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) scenario workshops. The four FEMA Regions include eight states, namely Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas and Missouri. The earthquake impact assessment presented hereafter employs an analysis methodology comprising three major components: hazard, inventory and fragility (or vulnerability). The hazard characterizes not only the shaking of the ground but also the consequential transient and permanent deformation of the ground due to strong ground shaking as well as fire and flooding. The inventory comprises all assets in a specific region, including the built environment and population data. Fragility or vulnerability functions relate the severity of shaking to the likelihood of reaching or exceeding damage states (light, moderate, extensive and near-collapse, for example). Social impact models are also included and employ physical infrastructure damage results to estimate the effects on exposed communities. Whereas the modeling software packages used (HAZUS MR3; FEMA, 2008; and MAEviz, Mid-America Earthquake Center, 2008) provide default values for all of the above, most of these default values were replaced by components of traceable provenance and higher reliability than the default data, as described below. The hazard employed in this investigation includes ground shaking for a single scenario event representing the rupture of all three New Madrid fault segments. The NMSZ consists of three fault segments: the northeast segment, the reelfoot thrust or central segment, and the southwest segment. Each segment is assumed to generate a deterministic magnitude 7.7 (Mw7.7) earthquake caused by a rupture over the entire length of the segment. US Geological Survey (USGS) approved the employed magnitude and hazard approach. The combined rupture of all three segments simultaneously is designed to approximate the sequential rupture of all three segments over time. The magnitude of Mw7.7 is retained for the combined rupture. Full liquefaction susceptibility maps for the entire region have been developed and are used in this study. Inventory is enhanced through the use of the Homeland Security Infrastructure Program (HSIP) 2007 and 2008 Gold Datasets (NGA Office of America, 2007). These datasets contain various types of critical infrastructure that are key inventory components for earthquake impact assessment. Transportation and utility facility inventories are improved while regional natural gas and oil pipelines are added to the inventory, alongside high potential loss facility inventories. The National Bridge Inventory (NBI, 2008) and other state and independent data sources are utilized to improve the inventory. New fragility functions derived by the MAE Center are employed in this study for both buildings and bridges providing more regionally-applicable estimations of damage for these infrastructure components. Default fragility values are used to determine damage likelihoods for all other infrastructure components. The study reports new analysis using MAE Center-developed transportation network flow models that estimate changes in traffic flow and travel time due to earthquake damage. Utility network modeling was also undertaken to provide damage estimates for facilities and pipelines. An approximate flood risk model was assembled to identify areas that are likely to be flooded as a result of dam or levee failure. Social vulnerability identifies portions of the eight-state study region that are especially vulnerable due to various factors such as age, income, disability, and language proficiency. Social impact models include estimates of displaced and shelter-seeking populations as well as commodities and medical requirements. Lastly, search and rescue requirements quantify the number of teams and personnel required to clear debris and search for trapped victims. The results indicate that Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri are most severely impacted. Illinois and Kentucky are also impacted, though not as severely as the previous three states. Nearly 715,000 buildings are damaged in the eight-state study region. About 42,000 search and rescue personnel working in 1,500 teams are required to respond to the earthquakes. Damage to critical infrastructure (essential facilities, transportation and utility lifelines) is substantial in the 140 impacted counties near the rupture zone, including 3,500 damaged bridges and nearly 425,000 breaks and leaks to both local and interstate pipelines. Approximately 2.6 million households are without power after the earthquake. Nearly 86,000 injuries and fatalities result from damage to infrastructure. Nearly 130 hospitals are damaged and most are located in the impacted counties near the rupture zone. There is extensive damage and substantial travel delays in both Memphis, Tennessee, and St. Louis, Missouri, thus hampering search and rescue as well as evacuation. Moreover roughly 15 major bridges are unusable. Three days after the earthquake, 7.2 million people are still displaced and 2 million people seek temporary shelter. Direct economic losses for the eight states total nearly $300 billion, while indirect losses may be at least twice this amount. The contents of this report provide the various assumptions used to arrive at the impact estimates, detailed background on the above quantitative consequences, and a breakdown of the figures per sector at the FEMA region and state levels. The information is presented in a manner suitable for personnel and agencies responsible for establishing response plans based on likely impacts of plausible earthquakes in the central USA.Armu W0132T-06-02unpublishednot peer reviewe

Multi-objective optimal seismic design of buildings using advanced engineering materials

Although seismic safety remains a major concern of society--and unfortunately this observation has been underpinned by recent earthquakes--economy and sustainability in seismic design are growing issues that the engineering community must face due to increasing human population and excessive use of the earth???s nonrenewable resources. Previous studies have addressed the design and assessment of buildings under seismic loading considering a single objective, namely, safety. Seismic design codes and regulations also center on this objective. The goal of this study is to develop a framework that concurrently addresses the societal-level objectives of safety, economy and sustainability using consistent tools at every component of the analysis. To this end, a high-performance material; namely, engineered cementitious composites (ECC) is utilized. ECC is classified under the general class of fiber-reinforced concrete (FRC); however, ECC is superior to conventional FRC in many aspects, but most importantly in its properties of energy absorption, shear resistance and damage tolerance, all of which are utilized in the proposed procedure. The behavior of ECC is characterized through an experimental program at the small-scale (scale factor equal to 1/8). Numerical modeling of ECC is also performed to carry out structural level simulations to complement the experimental data. A constitutive model is developed for ECC and validated at the material, component and system levels. Additionally, a parametric study of ECC columns is performed to investigate the effect of material tensile properties on the structural level response metrics. Reducing the LCC of buildings (through reductions in material usage and seismic damage cost) is required to achieve the objectives of economy and sustainability. A rigorous LCC formulation that uses advanced analysis for structural assessment, and that takes into account all sources of uncertainty, is used along with an efficient search algorithm to compare the optimal design solutions. A novel aspect of this work is that three different structural frames are considered, RC, ECC and a multi-material frame in which ECC is deployed only at the critical locations (e.g. plastic hinges) to improve seismic performance. By considering the inelastic behavior of structures and incorporating all the required components, the proposed framework is generic and applicable to other types of construction such as bridges, to other innovative materials such as high performance steels, and to other extreme loading scenarios such as wind and blast.unpublishednot peer reviewe

Effect of Building Configuration on Seismic Response Parameters

To contribute to the available information on the inelastic performance of irregular structures, the investigation of four building characteristics on it seismic response was initiated. These characteristics are column height, beam-to-column capacity, stiffness distribution in elevation and set-backs and non-symmetric elevation configuration. The parametric study presented in the paper is intended to be more indicative than comprehensive, since simplifications in the modeling of structures were necessary

EULERIAN FORMULATION FOR LARGE-DISPLACEMENT ANALYSIS OF SPACE FRAMES

Accepted versio

Global Interventions for Seismic Upgrading of Substandard RC Buildings

A methodology is developed in this paper for the design and proportioning of interventions for seismic upgrading of substandardreinforced-concrete (RC) buildings. The retrofit approach is presented in the form of a simple design tool that aims toward both demand reduction and enhancement of force and deformation supply through controlled modification of stiffness along the height of the building. This objective is achieved by engineering the translational mode-shape of the structure, so as to optimize the distribution of interstory drift. Resultsfrom the proposed approach are summarized in a spectrum format in which demand, expressed in terms of interstory drift, is related to stiffness. Design charts, which relate the characteristics of commonly used global intervention procedures to influence drift demands, are developed to facilitate the retrofit design. The intervention procedures considered in this paper are reinforced-concrete jacketing, the addition of reinforced concrete walls, and the addition of masonry infills. The proposed methodology is also amenable to adaptation to other strengthening methods, such as the addition of cross-bracing

Leadership and Legacy: A History of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Illinois

William J. Hall Professor Emeritus By virtue of many factors, including increasing inquiries as to the history of the department, it was decided it was time to assemble existing documents into one succinct booklet. We begin with a piece on civil engineering education, a statement by the current department head about major thrusts that will guide the department's initiatives into the future, and a brief overview of the department, followed by a history of the department. Finally, we end with some miscellaneous information of interest.Ope

Design and assessment spectra for retrofitting of RC buildings

This article presents a novel approach for deriving Retrofit Design Spectra (RDS) that are intended for use in preliminary development and assessment of seismic upgrading scenarios of existing structures. The new spectral representation relates the characteristics of the intervention method chosen as the core of the upgrading strategy, with the ductility and strength demand of the retrofitted structure. The methodology utilized for the derivation of the RDS is based on the Capacity Spectrum Method where the capacity curve is described by relationships for global and local intervention methods that are parameterized in terms of fundamental response quantities. The proposed spectra provide direct insight into the complex interrelation between the characteristics of the intervention method and the implications of the upgrading scenario on demand. Alternative retrofit solutions are thus assessed in an efficient way. A case study is used to illustrate practical application of the new approach

Bridge-specific fragility analysis: when is it really necessary?

In seismic assessment of bridges the research focus has recently shifted on the derivation of bridge-specific fragility curves that account for the effect of different geometry, structural system, component and soil properties, on the seismic behaviour. In this context, a new, component-based methodology for the derivation of bridge-specific fragility curves has been recently proposed by the authors, with a view to overcoming the inherent difficulties in assessing all bridges of a road network and the drawbacks of existing methodologies, which use the same group of fragility curves for bridges within the same typological class. The main objective of this paper is to critically assess the necessity of bridge-specific fragility analysis, starting from the effect of structure-specific parameters on component capacity (limit state thresholds), seismic demand, and fragility curves. The aforementioned methodology is used to derive fragility curves for all bridges within an actual road network, with a view to investigating the consistency of adopting generic fragility curves for bridges that fall within the same class and quantifying the degree of over- or under-estimation of the probability of damage when generic bridge classes are considered. Moreover, fragility curves for all representative bridges of the analysed concrete bridge classes are presented to illustrate the differentiation in bridge fragility for varying structural systems, bridge geometry, total bridge length and maximum pier height. Based on the above, the relevance of bridge-specific fragility analysis is assessed, and pertinent conclusions are drawn

An integrated adaptive environment for fire and explosion analysis of steel frames - Part II: verification and application

Accepted versio