Титульные страницы и содержание

This study gives an overview of Project STARS (Studies on Trajectories of Adolescent Relationships and Sexuality), a four-wave longitudinal study of 1297 Dutch adolescents. First, the sample, measures and four sub-projects are described. Second, hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to examine how key variables from the individual domain (impulsivity), parent domain (parent-adolescent relationship quality), peer domain (involvement with peers) and media domain (time spent on social networking sites), and their interactions predict changes in the experience with sexual behaviour of adolescents across time. Results showed that higher levels of impulsivity, lower quality of relation with parents, more frequent involvement with peers and more time spent on social networking sites at baseline predicted increases in sexual experience of adolescents over a subsequent 1.5-year time period. No interaction effects among the domains were found. The findings highlight the significance of a multi-domain approach to the study of adolescent sexual development

Oil Price Shocks and the Norwegian Effective Exchange Rate – an SVAR Approach

We employ a structural VAR model to investigate direct and indirect effects of oil price changes on the Norwegian effective exchange rate (I44). The model is estimated on different subsamples and with different model specifications. Our main finding is that the direct effect of oil price shocks on the I44 has increased over time, independent of the model specification we choose. Furthermore, an increasing impact of oil shocks on interest rates and an increased impact of interest rates on the I44 account for the rise in the indirect impact of oil on the I44 over time. We further find that long (short) term interest differentials become relatively more (less) important for explaining movements in the I44 during recent samples. A possible interpretation could be the (zero) lower bound and unconventional monetary policy conducted by Norway’s trading partners

ECB Spillovers and Domestic Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Small Open Economies

In this paper we study financial spillovers from the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy and communication, and whether they have consequences for the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy of small open economies. Recent work suggests that the "trilemma" in international economics as we used to know it, is actually a dilemma: small open economies with floating exchange rate regimes can only have independent monetary policies when the capital account is managed. Our findings show that domestic monetary policy is still effective, but that spillover effects, particularly from the ECB's communication, reduce domestic control over the longer end of the yield curve.publishedVersio

Comparing Behavioural Heterogeneity Across Asset Classes

We estimate a generic agent-based model in which agents have heterogeneous beliefs about the future price to see to what extent behaviour differs across assets, and what this implies for market stability. We find evidence for behavioural heterogeneity for all asset classes, except for equities. Heterogeneity is especially pronounced for macro-economic variables. Agents update their beliefs frequently in financial markets, and only gradually in the case of macro-economic variables. Consequently, we find that the probability of behavioural bubbles is substantially higher for the macro-economic variables than for financial assets.publishedVersio

Agreeing on Disagreement: Heterogeneity or Uncertainty?

Disagreement is used as a measure of both investor heterogeneity and uncertainty. We study whether disagreement captures heterogeneity or uncertainty for the foreign exchange market. We do so by relating disagreement to alternative measures of uncertainty, as well as by taking advantage of the different asset pricing implications of the two concepts. We find that whereas disagreement measures uncertainty conditionally, unconditionally this is only true during the peak of the global financial crisis.publishedVersio