Health Risks From Mercury-Contaminated Fish: A Reassessment

Several Congressional bills and a pending EPA regulation would significantly cut mercury emissions from power plants, so as to reduce mercury-related neurological effects among children. There is, however, no estimate of the number of cases of neurological deficiencies that might be avoided by such emissions cuts. To inform policymakers, we develop estimates of the annual number of cases of neurodevelopmental effects among children in the United States, based on existing estimates of the exposure and dose-response relationships for prenatal exposure to methylmercury. Using data on emissions and deposition, we show that eliminating mercury emissions from U.S. power plants would prevent on the order of 10,000 cases of subtle neurological deficiencies per year. For a related paper, see Regulating Mercury Emissions: What Do We Know About Costs and Benefits?Environment, Health and Safety, Regulatory Reform

Litigating Lead-Based Paint Hazards: Is It a Solution?

None.Environment, Health and Safety, Regulatory Reform

Regulating Mercury Emissions: What Do We Know About Costs and Benefits?

United States policymakers are concerned with mercury emissions because mercury has potentially adverse effects on children whose mothers consumed contaminated fish while pregnant. Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency are considering different proposals to cut or even eliminate mercury emissions from oil and coal-fired power plants. We compare the cost of cutting power plants' mercury emissions with the likely reductions in the number of cases of subtle neurological effects. Given current scientific understanding, the health and environmental improvements are very unlikely to provide an economic justification for the costs of stringent controls on mercury emissions. In addition, if Congress or EPA were to regulate mercury emissions from power plants, an approach that used prices would be more efficient than one that limited the quantity of mercury emissions. For a related paper, see Health Risks From Mercury-Contaminated Fish: A Reassessment.

Assessing Regulatory Impact Analyses: The Failure of Agencies to Comply With Executive Order 12,866

None.Environment, Health and Safety, Regulatory Reform

Assessing the Quality of Regulatory Impact Analyses

This study provides the most comprehensive evaluation of the quality of recent economic analyses that agencies conduct before finalizing major regulations. We construct a new dataset that includes analyses of forty-eight major health, safety, and environmental regulations from mid-1996 to mid-1999. This dataset provides detailed information on a variety of issues, including an agency's treatment of benefits, costs, net benefits, discounting, and uncertainty. We use this dataset to assess the quality of recent economic analyses and to determine the extent to which they are consistent with President Clinton's Executive Order 12866 and the benefit-cost guidelines issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). We find that economic analyses prepared by regulatory agencies typically do not provide enough information to make decisions that will maximize the efficiency or effectiveness of a rule. Agencies quantified net benefits for only 29 percent of the rules. Agencies failed to discuss alternatives in 27 percent of the rules and quantified costs and benefits of alternatives in only 31 percent of the rules. Our findings strongly suggest that agencies generally failed to comply with the executive order and adhere to the OMB guidelines. We offer specific suggestions for improving the quality of analysis and the transparency of the regulatory process, including writing clear executive summaries, making analyses available on the Internet, providing more careful consideration of alternatives to a regulation, and estimating net benefits of a regulation when data on costs and benefits are provided.

UBVRI Light Curves of 44 Type Ia Supernovae

We present UBVRI photometry of 44 type-Ia supernovae (SN Ia) observed from 1997 to 2001 as part of a continuing monitoring campaign at the Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. The data set comprises 2190 observations and is the largest homogeneously observed and reduced sample of SN Ia to date, nearly doubling the number of well-observed, nearby SN Ia with published multicolor CCD light curves. The large sample of U-band photometry is a unique addition, with important connections to SN Ia observed at high redshift. The decline rate of SN Ia U-band light curves correlates well with the decline rate in other bands, as does the U-B color at maximum light. However, the U-band peak magnitudes show an increased dispersion relative to other bands even after accounting for extinction and decline rate, amounting to an additional ~40% intrinsic scatter compared to B-band.Comment: 84 authors, 71 pages, 51 tables, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal. Version with high-res figures and electronic data at http://astron.berkeley.edu/~saurabh/cfa2snIa

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline