Estimating the impact of tuberculosis anatomical classification on treatment outcomes: A patient and surveillance perspective analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis anatomical classification is inconsistent in the literature, which limits current tuberculosis knowledge and control. We aimed to evaluate whether tuberculosis classification impacts on treatment outcomes at patient and aggregate level. METHODS: We analyzed adults from São Paulo State, Brazil with newly diagnosed tuberculosis from 2010-2013. We used an extended clinical classification of tuberculosis, categorizing cases as pulmonary, pulmonary and extrapulmonary, extrapulmonary and miliary/disseminated. Our primary outcome was unsuccessful outcome of treatment. To investigate the reported treatment outcome at the aggregate level, we sampled 500 different "countries" from the dataset and compared the impact of pulmonary and extrapulmonary classifications on the reported treatment success. RESULTS: Of 62,178 patients, 49,999 (80.4%) were pulmonary, 9,026 (14.5%) extrapulmonary, 1,651 (2.7%) pulmonary-extrapulmonary and 1,502 (2.4%) miliary/disseminated. Pulmonary-extrapulmonary cases had similar unsuccessful outcome of treatment compared with pulmonary (adjusted-OR 1.00, 95%CI, 0.88-1.13, p = 0.941), while extrapulmonary were associated with better (adjusted-OR 0.65, 95%CI, 0.60-0.71, p<0.001) and miliary/disseminated with worse outcomes (adjusted-OR 1.51, 95%CI, 1.33-1.71, p<0.001). We found that 60 (12%) countries would report a difference ≥10% in treatment success depending on whether they reported all clinical forms together (current WHO recommendation) or pulmonary forms alone, overestimating the treatment success of pulmonary forms. CONCLUSIONS: The expanded anatomical classification of tuberculosis was strongly associated with treatment outcomes at the patient level. Remarkably, pulmonary with concomitant extrapulmonary forms had similar treatment outcomes compared with pulmonary forms after adjustment for potential confounders. At the aggregate level, reporting treatment success for all clinical forms together might hide differences in progress between pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis control

The impact of being homeless on the unsuccessful outcome of treatment of pulmonary TB in São Paulo State, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem requiring complex treatment, the success of which depends on biological, social, and institutional factors. São Paulo State (SPS), in Brazil, has a high TB burden. Because of high socioeconomic heterogeneity and chaotic urbanisation, homelessness might play an important role in the TB burden in SPS. Our aim was to determine the association between homelessness and outcome of treatment of pulmonary TB (PTB) in SPS. METHODS: A historical cohort from the routine SPS TB database for 2009-2013 was analysed. The study population was newly diagnosed adult patients with PTB. Homelessness was ascertained at notification or when treatment started. Our outcome was unsuccessful outcome of treatment. We used logistic regression to adjust for potential confounders and multiple imputation for missing data. RESULTS: We analysed 61,817 patients; 1726 (2.8 %, 95%CI 2.7-2.9 %) were homeless. Homeless patients were concentrated in bigger cities, were more frequently middle-aged males, had black/brown skin colour, and had received less education (P < 0.001, for all). Alcohol and drug use was three times more frequent in homeless patients (43.2 % vs 14.4 %, 30.2 % vs. 9.4 %, P < 0.001, respectively). HIV testing was less common among the homeless, of whom 17.3 % were HIV positive compared with 8.5 % among the not homeless population (P < 0.001). Microbiologic confirmation was more frequent among the homeless (91.6 % vs. 84.8 %, P < 0.001). Unsuccessful outcome of treatment was 57.3 % among the homeless and 17.5 % among the not homeless (OR = 6.32, 95%CI 5.73-6.97, P < 0.001), mainly due to loss to follow-up (39 %) and death (10.5 %). After full-adjustment for potential confounders, homelessness remained strongly associated with lower treatment success (aOR = 4.96, 95 % CI 4.27-5.76, P < 0.001). HIV status interacted with homelessness: among HIV-infected patients, the aOR was 2.45 (95%CI 1.90-3.16, Pinteraction < 0.001). The population attributable fraction for the joint effect of homelessness, alcohol and drug use was almost 20 %. CONCLUSIONS: Confirming our hypothesis, homelessness led to a marked reduction in the successful treatment of newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis. Homelessness and associated conditions were important contributors to lack of treatment success in pulmonary tuberculosis in São Paulo. A multifaceted intervention must be implemented to target this vulnerable population

Economic Impact of a Rotavirus Vaccine in Brazil

The study was done to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazilian children from the healthcare system perspective. A hypothetical annual birth-cohort was followed for a five-year period. Published and national administrative data were incorporated into a model to quantify the consequences of vaccination versus no vaccination. Main outcome measures included the reduction in disease burden, lives saved, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. A rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazil would prevent an estimated 1,804 deaths associated with gastroenteritis due to rotavirus, 91,127 hospitalizations, and 550,198 outpatient visits. Vaccination is likely to reduce 76% of the overall healthcare burden of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis in Brazil. At a vaccine price of US$7-8 per dose, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be US$ 643 per DALY averted. Rotavirus vaccination can reduce the burden of gastroenteritis due to rotavirus at a reasonable cost-effectiveness ratio

Long-term survival and cause-specific mortality of patients newly diagnosed with tuberculosis in São Paulo state, Brazil, 2010–15: a population-based, longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term survival and cause-specific mortality of patients who start tuberculosis treatment is rarely described. We aimed to assess the long-term survival of these patients and evaluate the association between vulnerable conditions (social, health behaviours, and comorbidities) and cause-specific mortality in a country with a high burden of tuberculosis. METHODS: In this population-based, longitudinal study in São Paulo state, Brazil, we described the 5-year survival of patients who were newly diagnosed with tuberculosis in 2010. We included patients with newly-diagnosed tuberculosis, aged 15 years or older, and notified to the São Paulo State Tuberculosis Program in 2010. We excluded patients whose diagnosis had changed during follow-up (ie, they did not have tuberculosis) and patients who had multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis. We selected our population with tuberculosis from the dedicated electronic system TBweb. Our primary objective was to estimate the excess mortality over 5 years and within the group who survived the first year, compared with the general São Paulo state population. We also estimated the association between social vulnerability (imprisonment and homelessness), health behaviours (alcohol and drug use), and comorbidities (diabetes and mental disorders) with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We used the competing risk analysis framework, estimating cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for potential confounding factors. FINDINGS: In 2010, there were 19 252 notifications of tuberculosis cases. We excluded 550 cases as patients were younger than 15 years, 556 cases that were not tuberculosis, 2597 retreatments, and 48 cases of MDR tuberculosis, resulting in a final cohort of 15 501 patients with tuberculosis. Over a period of 5 years from tuberculosis diagnosis, 2660 (17%) of 15 501 patients died. Compared with the source population, matched by age, sex, and calendar year, the standardised mortality ratio was 6·47 (95% CI 6·22-6·73) over 5 years and 3·93 (3·71-4·17) among those who survived the first year. 1197 (45%) of 2660 deaths were due to infection. Homelessness and alcohol and drug use were associated with death from infection (adjusted cause-specific HR 1·60, 95% CI 1·39-1·85), cardiovascular (1·43, 1·06-1·95), and external or ill-defined causes of death (1·80, 1·37-2·36). Diabetes was associated with deaths from cardiovascular causes (1·70, 1·23-2·35). INTERPRETATION: Patients newly diagnosed with tuberculosis were at a higher risk of death than were the source population, even after tuberculosis treatment. Post-tuberculosis sequelae and vulnerability are associated with excess mortality and must be addressed to mitigate the tuberculosis burden worldwide. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust