A Limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set

Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact

ILC Reference Design Report Volume 1 - Executive Summary

The International Linear Collider (ILC) is a 200-500 GeV center-of-mass high-luminosity linear electron-positron collider, based on 1.3 GHz superconducting radio-frequency (SCRF) accelerating cavities. The ILC has a total footprint of about 31 km and is designed for a peak luminosity of 2x10^34 cm^-2s^-1. This report is the Executive Summary (Volume I) of the four volume Reference Design Report. It gives an overview of the physics at the ILC, the accelerator design and value estimate, the detector concepts, and the next steps towards project realization.The International Linear Collider (ILC) is a 200-500 GeV center-of-mass high-luminosity linear electron-positron collider, based on 1.3 GHz superconducting radio-frequency (SCRF) accelerating cavities. The ILC has a total footprint of about 31 km and is designed for a peak luminosity of 2x10^34 cm^-2s^-1. This report is the Executive Summary (Volume I) of the four volume Reference Design Report. It gives an overview of the physics at the ILC, the accelerator design and value estimate, the detector concepts, and the next steps towards project realization

ILC Reference Design Report Volume 4 - Detectors

This report, Volume IV of the International Linear Collider Reference Design Report, describes the detectors which will record and measure the charged and neutral particles produced in the ILC's high energy e+e- collisions. The physics of the ILC, and the environment of the machine-detector interface, pose new challenges for detector design. Several conceptual designs for the detector promise the needed performance, and ongoing detector R&D is addressing the outstanding technological issues. Two such detectors, operating in push-pull mode, perfectly instrument the ILC interaction region, and access the full potential of ILC physics.This report, Volume IV of the International Linear Collider Reference Design Report, describes the detectors which will record and measure the charged and neutral particles produced in the ILC's high energy e+e- collisions. The physics of the ILC, and the environment of the machine-detector interface, pose new challenges for detector design. Several conceptual designs for the detector promise the needed performance, and ongoing detector R&D is addressing the outstanding technological issues. Two such detectors, operating in push-pull mode, perfectly instrument the ILC interaction region, and access the full potential of ILC physics

ILC Reference Design Report Volume 3 - Accelerator

The International Linear Collider (ILC) is a 200-500 GeV center-of-mass high-luminosity linear electron-positron collider, based on 1.3 GHz superconducting radio-frequency (SCRF) accelerating cavities. The ILC has a total footprint of about 31 km and is designed for a peak luminosity of 2x10^34 cm^-2 s^-1. The complex includes a polarized electron source, an undulator-based positron source, two 6.7 km circumference damping rings, two-stage bunch compressors, two 11 km long main linacs and a 4.5 km long beam delivery system. This report is Volume III (Accelerator) of the four volume Reference Design Report, which describes the design and cost of the ILC.The International Linear Collider (ILC) is a 200-500 GeV center-of-mass high-luminosity linear electron-positron collider, based on 1.3 GHz superconducting radio-frequency (SCRF) accelerating cavities. The ILC has a total footprint of about 31 km and is designed for a peak luminosity of 2x10^34 cm^-2 s^-1. The complex includes a polarized electron source, an undulator-based positron source, two 6.7 km circumference damping rings, two-stage bunch compressors, two 11 km long main linacs and a 4.5 km long beam delivery system. This report is Volume III (Accelerator) of the four volume Reference Design Report, which describes the design and cost of the ILC

International Linear Collider Reference Design Report Volume 2: PHYSICS AT THE ILC

This article reviews the physics case for the ILC. Baseline running at 500 GeV as well as possible upgrades and options are discussed. The opportunities on Standard Model physics, Higgs physics, Supersymmetry and alternative theories beyond the Standard Model are described.This article reviews the physics case for the ILC. Baseline running at 500 GeV as well as possible upgrades and options are discussed. The opportunities on Standard Model physics, Higgs physics, Supersymmetry and alternative theories beyond the Standard Model are described