Extreme precipitation-streamflow event in the river Araguari basin, Amapá / Brazil

O objetivo da investigação foi analisar vazões extremas ocorridas entre 9 e 14 de abril de 2011 na bacia do Rio Araguari-AP. A metodologia consistiu de três etapas principais: 1) re-análise da precipitação estimada pelo Modelo BRAMS (Brazilian in Development Regional Atmospheric Model System),utilizando como suporte a sinótica do mesmo período; 2) análise de vazão nas seções de monitoramento hidrológico em Porto Platon, Capivara e Serra do Navio (ADCP-Accustic Doppler Profiller Current); 3) análise estatística da série histórica de vazões máximas em Porto Platon utilizando distribuição de Gumbel. Observou-se que o modelo BRAMS capturou parcialmente o padrão do sistema de precipitação quando comparado com a análise sinótica e com os dados da literatura, mas demandando ainda otimização na representação de respostas hidrológicas extremas. Em Porto Platon foi registrada uma vazão recorde de 4036 m3/s, cujo comportamento foi analisado sob a ótica dos mecanismos disponíveis de monitoramento no Estado. Concluiu-se que tais eventos extremos são pouco detectáveis e oferecem riscos consideráveis aos usuários da bacia. A previsão de vazão, baseada na série hidrológica disponível, era de 100 anos de retorno, mas as análises revelaram que este período seria de 360 anos, indicando significativa fragilidade do sistema de previsão de eventos extremos no Estado.The objective of this investigation was to analyse the extreme river flows which have occurred between 9 and 14 April 2011 in the Rio Araguari-AP. The methodology consisted of three main steps: 1) re-analysis of precipitation estimated by the BRAMS (Brazilian Development in Regional Atmospheric Model System) model using the synoptic of the same period as support, 2) analysis of streamflow in sections of hydrological monitoring in Porto Platon, Capivari and Serra do Navio (ADCP-Accustic Profiller Doppler Current); 3) statistic analysis of the time series of maximum river flows in Porto Platon using Gumbel distribution. It was observed that the BRAMS system partially captured the standard precipitation when compared with the synoptic analysis and literature data, but the extreme hydrological responses representation still needs an optimization. In Porto Platon a flow record of 4036 m3 /s was recorded, whose behavior was analyzed from the perspective of the available monitoring mechanisms in the State. It was concluded that such extreme events are poorly detectable and offer considerable risks to users of the basin. The stream flow prediction based on available hydrological series was 100 years recurrence, but the analysis have revealed that this period would be 360 years, indicating significant deficiency of the prediction system of extreme events in the State

Conhecimento tradicional: a cultura das cercas de madeira no Piauí, Nordeste do Brasil

No Piauí, o costume de usar cercas de madeira foi passado de pais para filhos ao longo das gerações. Com o objetivo de analisar o conhecimento tradicional empregado na construção dessas cercas e identificar as espécies da flora utilizadas, foram realizadas 50 entrevistas com agricultores familiares no município de Cocal, Piauí, e foi coletado material botânico, procedimento que permitiu identificar 28 espécies, distribuídas em dez famílias e 21 gêneros. As espécies que mais se destacaram foram Aspidosperma pyrifolium Mart. e Cedrela odorata L (100%), Mimosa caesalpiniifolia Benth. (95,83%), Terminalia fagifolia Mart. (84,21%) e Annona leptopetala (R. E. Fr.) H. Rainer (83,35%).As cercas mais comuns foram as de fachina, construídas com sabiá (M. caesalpiniifolia) apenas ou com sabiá em associação com aroeira (Myracrodruon urundeuva Allemão), pau-d’arco-roxo (Handroanthus impetiginosus Mart. ex. DC. Mattos) ou jatobá (Hymenaea courbaril L.) com arame farpado. Verificou- se, ainda, que as cercas de madeira construídas no semiárido piauiense não se limitam a dividirem áreas e/ou conterem animais; são verdadeiras obras de arte, que compõem e decoram a paisagem rural

Predicting death from kala-azar: construction, development, and validation of a score set and accompanying software

Abstract INTRODUCTION Early identification of patients at higher risk of progressing to severe disease and death is crucial for implementing therapeutic and preventive measures; this could reduce the morbidity and mortality from kala-azar. We describe a score set composed of four scales in addition to software for quick assessment of the probability of death from kala-azar at the point of care. METHODS: Data from 883 patients diagnosed between September 2005 and August 2008 were used to derive the score set, and data from 1,031 patients diagnosed between September 2008 and November 2013 were used to validate the models. Stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to derive the optimal multivariate prediction models. Model performance was assessed by its discriminatory accuracy. A computational specialist system (Kala-Cal(r)) was developed to speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores. RESULTS: The clinical prediction score showed high discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.90) for distinguishing death from survival for children ≤2 years old. Performance improved after adding laboratory variables (AUC 0.93). The clinical score showed equivalent discrimination (AUC 0.89) for older children and adults, which also improved after including laboratory data (AUC 0.92). The score set also showed a high, although lower, discrimination when applied to the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This score set and Kala-Cal(r) software may help identify individuals with the greatest probability of death. The associated software may speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores and assist physicians in decision-making