Inverse modeling of cloud-aerosol interactions – Part 1: Detailed response surface analysis

This is the final version of the article. Available from EGU via the DOI in this record.New methodologies are required to probe the sensitivity of parameters describing cloud droplet activation. This paper presents an inverse modeling-based method for exploring cloud-aerosol interactions via response surfaces. The objective function, containing the difference between the measured and model predicted cloud droplet size distribution is studied in a two-dimensional framework, and presented for pseudo-adiabatic cloud parcel model parameters that are pair-wise selected. From this response surface analysis it is shown that the susceptibility of cloud droplet size distribution to variations in different aerosol physiochemical parameters is highly dependent on the aerosol environment and meteorological conditions. In general the cloud droplet size distribution is most susceptible to changes in the updraft velocity. A shift towards an increase in the importance of chemistry for the cloud nucleating ability of particles is shown to exist somewhere between marine average and rural continental aerosol regimes. We also use these response surfaces to explore the feasibility of inverse modeling to determine cloud-aerosol interactions. It is shown that the "cloud-aerosol" inverse problem is particularly difficult to solve due to significant parameter interaction, presence of multiple regions of attraction, numerous local optima, and considerable parameter insensitivity. The identifiability of the model parameters will be dependent on the choice of the objective function. Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the location of the information content within the calibration data to confirm that our choice of objective function maximizes information retrieval from the cloud droplet size distribution. Cloud parcel models that employ a moving-centre based calculation of the cloud droplet size distribution pose additional difficulties when applying automatic search algorithms for studying cloud-aerosol interactions. To aid future studies, an increased resolution of the region of the size spectrum associated with droplet activation within cloud parcel models, or further development of fixed-sectional cloud models would be beneficial. Despite these improvements, it is demonstrated that powerful search algorithms remain necessary to efficiently explore the parameter space and successfully solve the cloud-aerosol inverse problem.We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Bert Bolin Centre for Climate research. We gratefully appreciate G. J. Roelofs, IMAU, Utrecht, the Netherlands, for providing us with the pseudo-adiabatic cloud parcel model used in this study. We gratefully acknowledge Hamish Struthers valuable discussions and his help to improve the readability of the manuscript. Some of the calculations made during the course of this study have been made possible using the LISA cluster from the SARA centre for parallel computing at the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands. AS acknowledges support from an Office of Naval Research YIP award (N00014-10-1-0811).The authors acknowledge the Swedish Environmental Monitoring Program a

The ice-nucleating activity of Arctic sea surface microlayer samples and marine algal cultures

In recent years, sea spray as well as the biological material it contains has received increased attention as a source of ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Such INPs may play a role in remote marine regions, where other sources of INPs are scarce or absent. In the Arctic, these INPs can influence water–ice partitioning in low-level clouds and thereby the cloud lifetime, with consequences for the surface energy budget, sea ice formation and melt, and climate. Marine aerosol is of a diverse nature, so identifying sources of INPs is challenging. One fraction of marine bioaerosol (phytoplankton and their exudates) has been a particular focus of marine INP research. In our study we attempt to address three main questions. Firstly, we compare the ice-nucleating ability of two common phytoplankton species with Arctic seawater microlayer samples using the same instrumentation to see if these phytoplankton species produce ice-nucleating material with sufficient activity to account for the ice nucleation observed in Arctic microlayer samples. We present the first measurements of the ice-nucleating ability of two predominant phytoplankton species: Melosira arctica, a common Arctic diatom species, and Skeletonema marinoi, a ubiquitous diatom species across oceans worldwide. To determine the potential effect of nutrient conditions and characteristics of the algal culture, such as the amount of organic carbon associated with algal cells, on the ice nucleation activity, Skeletonema marinoi was grown under different nutrient regimes. From comparison of the ice nucleation data of the algal cultures to those obtained from a range of sea surface microlayer (SML) samples obtained during three different field expeditions to the Arctic (ACCACIA, NETCARE, and ASCOS), we found that they were not as ice active as the investigated microlayer samples, although these diatoms do produce ice-nucleating material. Secondly, to improve our understanding of local Arctic marine sources as atmospheric INPs we applied two aerosolization techniques to analyse the ice-nucleating ability of aerosolized microlayer and algal samples. The aerosols were generated either by direct nebulization of the undiluted bulk solutions or by the addition of the samples to a sea spray simulation chamber filled with artificial seawater. The latter method generates aerosol particles using a plunging jet to mimic the process of oceanic wave breaking. We observed that the aerosols produced using this approach can be ice active, indicating that the ice-nucleating material in seawater can indeed transfer to the aerosol phase. Thirdly, we attempted to measure ice nucleation activity across the entire temperature range relevant for mixed-phase clouds using a suite of ice nucleation measurement techniques – an expansion cloud chamber, a continuous-flow diffusion chamber, and a cold stage. In order to compare the measurements made using the different instruments, we have normalized the data in relation to the mass of salt present in the nascent sea spray aerosol. At temperatures above 248 K some of the SML samples were very effective at nucleating ice, but there was substantial variability between the different samples. In contrast, there was much less variability between samples below 248 K. We discuss our results in the context of aerosol–cloud interactions in the Arctic with a focus on furthering our understanding of which INP types may be important in the Arctic atmosphere

Microphysical explanation of the RH-dependent water affinity of biogenic organic aerosol and its importance for climate

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Geophysical Union via the DOI in this record.A large fraction of atmospheric organic aerosol (OA) originates from natural emissions that are oxidized in the atmosphere to form secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Isoprene (IP) and monoterpenes (MT) are the most important precursors of SOA originating from forests. The climate impacts from OA are currently estimated through parameterizations of water uptake that drastically simplify the complexity of OA. We combine laboratory experiments, thermodynamic modeling, field observations, and climate modeling to (1) explain the molecular mechanisms behind RH-dependent SOA water-uptake with solubility and phase separation; (2) show that laboratory data on IP- and MT-SOA hygroscopicity are representative of ambient data with corresponding OA source profiles; and (3) demonstrate the sensitivity of the modeled aerosol climate effect to assumed OA water affinity. We conclude that the commonly used single-parameter hygroscopicity framework can introduce significant error when quantifying the climate effects of organic aerosol. The results highlight the need for better constraints on the overall global OA mass loadings and its molecular composition, including currently underexplored anthropogenic and marine OA sources.The data presented in the paper will be available through the Bolin Centre database (http://bolin.su.se/data/). The EC H2020 European Research Council ERC (ERC-StGATMOGAIN-278277 and ERC-StG-QAPPA-335478) and integrated project 641816 CRESCENDO Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas) (2015-749), Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse (Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation Wallenberg Fellowship AtmoRemove), Academy of Finland (grants 272041 and 259005), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC grants NE/M003531/1 and NE/J02175X/1), Norwegian Research Council (EVA grant 229771), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC, grant RGPIN/04315-2014), National Science Foundation (NSF, grants ATM-1242258, AGS-1242932, and AGS-1360834), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA, STAR grant R835410), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, CPO award 538NA10OAR4310102), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI, grant 10004734), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE, grants BER/ASR DE-SC0016559 and DE-SC0012792), Georgia Institute of Technology, and NordForsk (Nordic Centre of Excellence eSTICC) are gratefully acknowledged for funding. The climate model simulations were performed on resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the National Supercomputing Centre. Benjamin Murphy is acknowledged for useful discussions

The importance of Aitken mode aerosol particles for cloud sustenance in the summertime high Arctic-A simulation study supported by observational data

The potential importance of Aitken mode particles (diameters 25 80 nm) for stratiform mixed-phase clouds in the summertime high Arctic (80 N) has been investigated using two large-eddy simulation models. We find that, in both models, Aitken mode particles significantly affect the simulated microphysical and radiative properties of the cloud and can help sustain the cloud when accumulation mode concentrations are low (10 20 cm3), even when the particles have low hygroscopicity (hygroscopicity parameter-D 0:1). However, the influence of the Aitken mode decreases if the overall liquid water content of the cloud is low, either due to a higher ice fraction or due to low radiative cooling rates. An analysis of the simulated supersaturation (ss) statistics shows that the ss frequently reaches 0.5% and sometimes even exceeds 1 %, which confirms that Aitken mode particles can be activated. The modelling results are in qualitative agreement with observations of the Hoppel minimum obtained from four different expeditions in the high Arctic. Our findings highlight the importance of better understanding Aitken mode particle formation, chemical properties and emissions, particularly in clean environments such as the high Arctic

The free troposphere as a potential source of arctic boundary layer aerosol particles

This study investigates aerosol particle transport from the free troposphere to the boundary layer in the summertime high Arctic. Observations from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study field campaign show several occurrences of high aerosol particle concentrations above the boundary layer top. Large-eddy simulations suggest that when these enhanced aerosol concentrations are present, they can be an important source of aerosol particles for the boundary layer. Most particles are transported to the boundary layer by entrainment. However, it is found that mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds, which often extend into the inversion layer, also can mediate the transport of particles into the boundary layer by activation at cloud top and evaporation below cloud base. Finally, the simulations also suggest that aerosol properties at the surface sometimes may not be good indicators of aerosol properties in the cloud layer

Inverse modeling of cloud-aerosol interactions - Part 1: Detailed response surface analysis

New methodologies are required to probe the sensitivity of parameters describing cloud droplet activation. This paper presents an inverse modeling-based method for exploring cloud-aerosol interactions via response surfaces. The objective function, containing the difference between the measured and model predicted cloud droplet size distribution is studied in a two-dimensional framework, and presented for pseudo-adiabatic cloud parcel model parameters that are pair-wise selected. From this response surface analysis it is shown that the susceptibility of cloud droplet size distribution to variations in different aerosol physiochemical parameters is highly dependent on the aerosol environment and meteorological conditions. In general the cloud droplet size distribution is most susceptible to changes in the updraft velocity. A shift towards an increase in the importance of chemistry for the cloud nucleating ability of particles is shown to exist somewhere between marine average and rural continental aerosol regimes. We also use these response surfaces to explore the feasibility of inverse modeling to determine cloud-aerosol interactions. It is shown that the "cloud- aerosol" inverse problem is particularly difficult to solve due to significant parameter interaction, presence of multiple regions of attraction, numerous local optima, and considerable parameter insensitivity. The identifiability of the model parameters will be dependent on the choice of the objective function. Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the location of the information content within the calibration data to confirm that our choice of objective function maximizes information retrieval from the cloud droplet size distribution. Cloud parcel models that employ a moving-centre based calculation of the cloud droplet size distribution pose additional difficulties when applying automatic search algorithms for studying cloud-aerosol interactions. To aid future studies, an increased resolution of the region of the size spectrum associated with droplet activation within cloud parcel models, or further development of fixed-sectional cloud models would be beneficial. Despite these improvements, it is demonstrated that powerful search algorithms remain necessary to efficiently explore the parameter space and successfully solve the cloud-aerosol inverse problem. © 2011 Author(s)

The free troposphere as a potential source of arctic boundary layer aerosol particles

This study investigates aerosol particle transport from the free troposphere to the boundary layer in the summertime high Arctic. Observations from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study field campaign show several occurrences of high aerosol particle concentrations above the boundary layer top. Large-eddy simulations suggest that when these enhanced aerosol concentrations are present, they can be an important source of aerosol particles for the boundary layer. Most particles are transported to the boundary layer by entrainment. However, it is found that mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds, which often extend into the inversion layer, also can mediate the transport of particles into the boundary layer by activation at cloud top and evaporation below cloud base. Finally, the simulations also suggest that aerosol properties at the surface sometimes may not be good indicators of aerosol properties in the cloud layer

Global emissions of terpenoid VOCs from terrestrial vegetation in the last millennium.

We investigated the millennial variability (1000 A.D.-2000 A.D.) of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene, and sesquiterpene, and Lund-Potsdam-Jena-General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission trends were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have significant short-term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr-1 (13% and 19% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively), and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr-1(15% and 20% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr-1(10% and 6% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr-1 (2% higher and 5% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr-1(10% and 4% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar emission trends, the magnitude of the emissions are different. This highlights the importance of building better constraints on VOC emissions from terrestrial vegetation

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: Issues and perspectives

The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect