Forecast uncertainty and ensemble spread in surface currents from a regional ocean model

An operational ocean Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the coastal seas off Northern Norway is evaluated by comparing with high-frequency radar current speed estimates. The EPS is composed of 24 members for which the ocean current is not perturbed nor constrained but forced with an atmosphere ensemble. The ocean ensemble spread stems from (i) accumulated differences in wind-forcing history and (ii) constraints of sea surface temperature by data assimilation. The intention of the ensemble is to reflect the actual uncertainty in initial conditions, which are largely unknown in terms of mesoscale circulation. We find a low but pronounced predictive skill in surface currents along with a good statistic skill. Additionally, current speeds show deterioration of the validation metrics over the forecast range. Further, high-resolution wind forcing seems to provide better forecast skill in currents compared to lower resolution forcing. In general, the ensemble exhibits the ability to predict forecast uncertainty

Juvenile ecology drives adult morphology in two insect orders

Most animals undergo ecological niche shifts between distinct life phases,but such shifts can result in adaptive conflicts of phenotypic traits. Metamor-phosis can reduce these conflicts by breaking up trait correlations, allowingeach life phase to independently adapt to its ecological niche. This process iscalled adaptive decoupling. It is, however, yet unknown to what extentadaptive decoupling is realized on a macroevolutionary scale in hemimeta-bolous insects and if the degree of adaptive decoupling is correlated with thestrength of ontogenetic niche shifts. It is also unclear whether the degree ofadaptive decoupling is correlated with phenotypic disparity. Here, we quan-tify nymphal and adult trait correlations in 219 species across the wholephylogeny of earwigs and stoneflies to test whether juvenile and adulttraits are decoupled from each other. We demonstrate that adult head mor-phology is largely driven by nymphal ecology, and that adult head shapedisparity has increased with stronger ontogenetic niche shifts in some stone-fly lineages. Our findings implicate that the hemimetabolan metamorphosisin earwigs and stoneflies does not allow for high degrees of adaptive decou-pling, and that high phenotypic disparity can even be realized when theevolution of distinct life phases is coupled

The emergence of international food safety standards and guidelines: understanding the current landscape through a historical approach

Following the Second World War, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) teamed up to construct an International Codex Alimentarius (or 'food code') which emerged in 1963. The Codex Committee on Food Hygiene (CCFH) was charged with the task of developing microbial hygiene standards, although it found itself embroiled in debate with the WHO over the nature these standards should take. The WHO was increasingly relying upon the input of biometricians and especially the International Commission on Microbial Specifications for Foods (ICMSF) which had developed statistical sampling plans for determining the microbial counts in the final end products. The CCFH, however, was initially more focused on a qualitative approach which looked at the entire food production system and developed codes of practice as well as more descriptive end-product specifications which the WHO argued were 'not scientifically correct'. Drawing upon historical archival material (correspondence and reports) from the WHO and FAO, this article examines this debate over microbial hygiene standards and suggests that there are many lessons from history which could shed light upon current debates and efforts in international food safety management systems and approaches

A new upper bound for the cross number of finite Abelian groups

In this paper, building among others on earlier works by U. Krause and C. Zahlten (dealing with the case of cyclic groups), we obtain a new upper bound for the little cross number valid in the general case of arbitrary finite Abelian groups. Given a finite Abelian group, this upper bound appears to depend only on the rank and on the number of distinct prime divisors of the exponent. The main theorem of this paper allows us, among other consequences, to prove that a classical conjecture concerning the cross and little cross numbers of finite Abelian groups holds asymptotically in at least two different directions.Comment: 21 pages, to appear in Israel Journal of Mathematic

Key Terms and Definitions in Acute Porphyrias: Results of an International Delphi Consensus Led by the European Porphyria Network

Background: Acute porphyrias are a group of rare inherited disorders causing acute neurovisceral attacks. Many terms used frequently in the literature and in clinical practice are ambiguous, which can lead to confusion in the way patients are managed, studied, and reported in clinical studies. Agreed definitions are a necessary first step in developing management guidelines and will facilitate communication of results of future clinical research. Methods: The Delphi method was used to generate consensus on key terms and definitions in acute porphyria. The process started with a brainstorming phase offered to all members of the European Porphyria Network followed by 2 Delphi rounds among international experts in the field of porphyria (the Acute Porphyria Expert Panel). A consensus of 75% or more was defined as the agreement threshold. Results: 63 respondents from 26 countries participated in the brainstorming phase, leading to the choice of 9 terms and definitions. 34 experts were invited to take part in the Delphi rounds. 7 of the initial 9 terms and definitions which entered the first Delphi round achieved the threshold for agreement. Following a second Delphi round, all 9 definitions achieved agreement. Conclusion: Agreement on the definitions for 9 important terms describing acute porphyrias represents a significant step forward for the porphyria community. It will facilitate more accurate comparison of outcomes among porphyria centres and in clinical trials and provide a strong framework for developing evidence based clinical guidelines.Background: Acute porphyrias are a group of rare inherited disorders causing acute neurovisceral attacks. Many terms used frequently in the literature and in clinical practice are ambiguous, which can lead to confusion in the way patients are managed, studied, and reported in clinical studies. Agreed definitions are a necessary first step in developing management guidelines and will facilitate communication of results of future clinical research. Methods: The Delphi method was used to generate consensus on key terms and definitions in acute porphyria. The process started with a brainstorming phase offered to all members of the European Porphyria Network followed by 2 Delphi rounds among international experts in the field of porphyria (the Acute Porphyria Expert Panel). A consensus of 75% or more was defined as the agreement threshold. Results: 63 respondents from 26 countries participated in the brainstorming phase, leading to the choice of 9 terms and definitions. 34 experts were invited to take part in the Delphi rounds. 7 of the initial 9 terms and definitions which entered the first Delphi round achieved the threshold for agreement. Following a second Delphi round, all 9 definitions achieved agreement. Conclusion: Agreement on the definitions for 9 important terms describing acute porphyrias represents a significant step forward for the porphyria community. It will facilitate more accurate comparison of outcomes among porphyria centres and in clinical trials and provide a strong framework for developing evidence based clinical guidelines

Junkie love : romance and addiction on the big screen

This article investigates the filmic construction of two disparate but intertwining cultural practices: those engaging in the life-affirming rituals of romantic love and those performing the potentially self-destructive rituals of hard drug consumption. Discussing a number of key feature films from the (mini) genre “junkie love”, it aims to show what happens when elements of mainstream romantic drama merge with the horror conventions of the heroin addiction film. Drawing amongst others on Murray Smith’s theory of “levels of [spectator] engagement” and Greg Smith’s concept of the “emotion system”, the article concludes that junkie love films, using tropes of the romantic tragedy in the tradition of Romeo and Juliet, present a more complex and nuanced approach to drug addicts than the predominantly condemnatory media coverage—one that arguably invites the spectator’s understanding and compassion

Impact of supragingival therapy on subgingival microbial profile in smokers versus non-smokers with severe chronic periodontitis

The aim of this study was to assess subgingival microbiological changes in smokers versus non-smokers presenting severe chronic periodontitis after supragingival periodontal therapy (ST).Non-smokers (n=10) and smokers (n=10) presenting at least nine teeth with probing pocket depth (PPD) (≥5 mm), bleeding on probing (BoP), and no history of periodontal treatment in the last 6 months were selected. Clinical parameters assessed were plaque index (PI), BoP, PPD, relative gingival margin position (rGMP) and relative clinical attachment level (rCAL). Subgingival biofilm was collected before and 21 days after ST. DNA was extracted and the 16S rRNA gene was amplified with the universal primer pair, 27F and 1492R. Amplified genes were cloned, sequenced, and identified by comparison with known 16S rRNA sequences. Statistical analysis was performed by Student's t and Chi-Square tests (α=5%).Clinically, ST promoted a significant reduction in PI and PPD, and gain of rCAL for both groups, with no significant intergroup difference. Microbiologically, at baseline, data analysis demonstrated that smokers harbored a higher proportion of Porphyromonas endodontalis, Bacteroidetes sp., Fusobacterium sp. and Tannerella forsythia and a lower number of cultivated phylotypes (p<0.05). Furthermore, non-smokers featured significant reductions in key phylotypes associated with periodontitis, whereas smokers presented more modest changes.Within the limits of the present study, ST promoted comparable clinical improvements in smokers and non-smokers with severe chronic periodontitis. However, in smokers, ST only slightly affected the subgingival biofilm biodiversity, as compared with non-smokers

Synergism between particle-based multiplexing and microfluidics technologies may bring diagnostics closer to the patient

In the field of medical diagnostics there is a growing need for inexpensive, accurate, and quick high-throughput assays. On the one hand, recent progress in microfluidics technologies is expected to strongly support the development of miniaturized analytical devices, which will speed up (bio)analytical assays. On the other hand, a higher throughput can be obtained by the simultaneous screening of one sample for multiple targets (multiplexing) by means of encoded particle-based assays. Multiplexing at the macro level is now common in research labs and is expected to become part of clinical diagnostics. This review aims to debate on the “added value” we can expect from (bio)analysis with particles in microfluidic devices. Technologies to (a) decode, (b) analyze, and (c) manipulate the particles are described. Special emphasis is placed on the challenges of integrating currently existing detection platforms for encoded microparticles into microdevices and on promising microtechnologies that could be used to down-scale the detection units in order to obtain compact miniaturized particle-based multiplexing platforms