Misreporting of Government Transfers: How Important Are Survey Design and Geography?

Recent studies linking household surveys to administrative records reveal high rates of misreporting of program receipt. We use the FoodAPS survey to examine whether the findings of these studies of general household surveys using one or two states generalize to a survey with a narrow focus and across many states. First, we study how reporting errors differ from other surveys. We find a lower rate of false negatives (failures to report true receipt) in FoodAPS, likely partly due to the shorter recall period of FoodAPS. Misreporting varies with household characteristics and between interviewers. Second, we examine geographic heterogeneity in survey error to assess whether we can extrapolate from linked data from a few states. We find systematic differences between states in unconditional error rates but no evidence of substantial differences conditional on common covariates. Thus, extrapolating error rates across states may yield more accurate receipt estimates than uncorrected survey estimates

Impacts of Declining U.S. Retail Beef Demand on Farm-Level Beef Prices and Production

A systems model was estimated to determine the effects of declining U.S. retail beef demand on farm-level beef prices and production. Retail beef demand declined by nearly 66% from 1976 to 1999. Results indicate autonomous shifts in retail demand significantly impacted farm-level demands and production. Based on equilibrium multipliers, the 1976–99 reduction in beef demand decreased real slaughter cattle prices and production by 32.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Real feeder cattle prices and production decreased by 8.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Combining the decreases in farm prices and production, slaughter and feeder cattle producers experienced a real revenue reduction of $13.3 billion (61%) due to the long-term decline in demand. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Potato demand in an increasingly organic marketplace

The authors investigate pricing and demand issues for four fresh potato categories (russet, red, white, and minor colored), organic fresh potatoes, and two processed potato categories (frozen|refrigerated and dehydrated) using a nonlinear generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS) that is closed under unit scaling (CUUS). The model used regionally aggregated at-home consumption data from 2000 to 2005. Estimated uncompensated own price elasticities for fresh potatoes were highly significant and ranged between −0.5 and −1.6. The study was designed to capture the effects of the aggregate organic market on the prices, expenditures, and demand for each potato category. Organic food market penetration elasticities suggest that specialty potatoes (organic and minor-colored) are particularly well positioned if demands for organic products continue to rise, red potatoes are not well positioned and evidence of the early warning signs of slippage in market share for white and russet potatoes may exist. Producers and promoters of conventional potato products should account for the increasingly important role of organic products in making decisions. As an auxiliary exercise, we also statistically sourced the variance of the organic potato price premium relative to the other four fresh potato prices. At the present time, the variability of the organic potato premium is not much affected by production costs or other supply-related factors: the premium variability was driven largely by demand, and demographic|seasonal factors. Producers should be cautious about shifting to organic potato production until lower cost practices emerge. [JEL Codes: D120, Q130, Q180]. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetically Modified Crops: Their Market and Welfare Impacts

A framework is developed for examining price and welfare effects of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) products. In the short run, non-GM grain generally becomes another identity-preserved product. However, more profound market effects are observed under some reasonable parameterizations. When calibrated to reflect the U.S. corn market, introducing GM technology increases aggregate welfare over a wide range of scenarios, unless the corresponding production cost savings are small and consumers are seriously concerned about GM products. The possibility that GM technology may reduce aggregate welfare is interesting because the model assumes rational agents and does not include regulatory constraints. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.