A multiplicative hazard regression model to assess the risk of disease transmission at hospital during community epidemics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During community epidemics, infections may be imported within hospital and transmitted to hospitalized patients. Hospital outbreaks of communicable diseases have been increasingly reported during the last decades and have had significant consequences in terms of patient morbidity, mortality, and associated costs. Quantitative studies are thus needed to estimate the risks of communicable diseases among hospital patients, taking into account the epidemiological process outside, hospital and host-related risk factors of infection and the role of other patients and healthcare workers as sources of infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose a multiplicative hazard regression model to analyze the risk of acquiring a communicable disease by patients at hospital. This model derives from epidemiological data on communicable disease epidemics in the community, hospital ward, patient susceptibility to infection, and exposure of patients to infection at hospital. The model estimates the relative effect of each of these factors on a patient's risk of communicable disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using individual data on patients and health care workers in a teaching hospital during the 2004-2005 influenza season in Lyon (France), we show the ability of the model to assess the risk of influenza-like illness among hospitalized patients. The significant effects on the risk of influenza-like illness were those of old age, exposure to infectious patients or health care workers, and a stay in a medical care unit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The proposed multiplicative hazard regression model could be an interesting epidemiological tool to quantify the risk of communicable disease at hospital during community epidemics and the uncertainty inherent in such quantification. Furthermore, key epidemiological, environmental, host, or exposure factors that influence this risk can be identified.</p

Case-mix and the use of control charts in monitoring mortality rates after coronary artery bypass

BACKGROUND: There is debate about the role of crude mortality rates and case-mix adjusted mortality rates in monitoring the outcomes of treatment. In the context of quality improvement a key purpose of monitoring is to identify special cause variation as this type of variation should be investigated to identify possible causes. This paper investigates agreement between the identification of special cause variation in risk adjusted and observed hospital specific mortality rates after coronary artery bypass grafting in New York hospitals. METHODS: Coronary artery bypass grafting mortality rates between 1994 and 2003 were obtained from the New York State Department of Health's cardiovascular reports for 41 hospitals. Cross-sectional control charts of crude (observed) and risk adjusted mortality rates were produced for each year. Special cause variation was defined as a data point beyond the 99.9% probability limits: hospitals showing special cause variation were identified for each year. Longitudinal control charts of crude (observed) and risk adjusted mortality rates were produced for each hospital with data for all ten years (n = 27). Special cause variation was defined as a data point beyond 99.9% probability limits, two out of three consecutive data points beyond 95% probability limits (two standard deviations from the mean) or a run of five consecutive points on one side of the mean. Years showing special cause variation in mortality were identified for each hospital. Cohen's Kappa was calculated for agreement between special causes identified in crude and risk-adjusted control charts. RESULTS: In cross sectional analysis the Cohen's Kappa was 0.54 (95% confidence interval: 0.28 to 0.78), indicating moderate agreement between the crude and risk-adjusted control charts with sensitivity 0.4 (95% confidence interval 0.17–0.69) and specificity 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–0.99). In longitudinal analysis, the Cohen's Kappa was 0.61 (95% confidence interval: 0.39 to 0.83) indicating good agreement between the tests with sensitivity 0.63 (95% confidence interval: 0.39–0.82) and specificity 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.96 to 0.99). CONCLUSION: There is moderate-good agreement between signals of special cause variation between observed and risk-adjusted mortality. Analysis of observed hospital specific CABG mortality over time and with other hospitals appears to be useful in identifying special causes of variation. Case-mix adjustment may not be essential for longitudinal monitoring of outcomes using control charts

Tomato: a crop species amenable to improvement by cellular and molecular methods

Tomato is a crop plant with a relatively small DNA content per haploid genome and a well developed genetics. Plant regeneration from explants and protoplasts is feasable which led to the development of efficient transformation procedures. In view of the current data, the isolation of useful mutants at the cellular level probably will be of limited value in the genetic improvement of tomato. Protoplast fusion may lead to novel combinations of organelle and nuclear DNA (cybrids), whereas this technique also provides a means of introducing genetic information from alien species into tomato. Important developments have come from molecular approaches. Following the construction of an RFLP map, these RFLP markers can be used in tomato to tag quantitative traits bred in from related species. Both RFLP's and transposons are in the process of being used to clone desired genes for which no gene products are known. Cloned genes can be introduced and potentially improve specific properties of tomato especially those controlled by single genes. Recent results suggest that, in principle, phenotypic mutants can be created for cloned and characterized genes and will prove their value in further improving the cultivated tomato.

Comparison of Methods to Correct Survival Estimates and Survival Regression Analysis on a Large HIV African Cohort

The evaluation of HIV treatment programs is generally based on an estimation of survival among patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). In large HIV programs, loss to follow-up (LFU) rates remain high despite active patient tracing, which is likely to bias survival estimates and survival regression analyses

Gender Differences in Immune Reconstitution: A Multicentric Cohort Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa, men living with HIV often start ART at more advanced stages of disease and have higher early mortality than women. We investigated gender difference in long-term immune reconstitution

Health-related quality of life after myocardial infarction is associated with level of left ventricular ejection fraction

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective was to explore the relationship between left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) assessed during hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (MI) and later health-related quality of life (HRQoL).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used multivariable linear regression to assess the relationship between LVEF and HRQoL in 256 MI patients who responded to the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ), the EQ-5D Index, and the EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale (EQ-VAS) 2.5 years after the index MI.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>167 patients had normal LVEF (>50%), 56 intermediate (40%–50%), and 33 reduced (<40%). The mean (SD) KCCQ clinical summary scores were 85 (18), 75 (22), and 68 (21) (<it>p </it><0.001) in the three groups, respectively. The corresponding EQ-5D Index scores were 0.83 (0.18), 0.72 (0.27), and 0.76 (0.14) (<it>p </it>= 0.005) and EQ-VAS scores were 72 (18), 65 (21), and 57 (20) (<it>p </it>= 0.001). In multivariable linear regression analysis age ≥ 70 years, known chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), subsequent MI, intermediate LVEF, and reduced LVEF were independent determinants for reduced KCCQ clinical summary score. Female sex, medication for angina pectoris at discharge, and intermediate LVEF were independent determinants for reduced EQ-5D Index score. Age ≥ 70 years, COPD, and reduced LVEF were associated with reduced EQ-VAS score.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>LVEF measured during hospitalization for MI was a determinant for HRQoL 2.5 years later.</p

Toxicity Associated with Stavudine Dose Reduction from 40 to 30 mg in First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy

To compare the incidence and timing of toxicity associated with the use of a reduced dose of stavudine from 40 to 30 mg in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV treatment and to investigate associated risk factors

Incidence and determinants of new AIDS-defining illnesses after HAART initiation in a Senegalese cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although a dramatic decrease in AIDS progression has been observed after Highly Active Anti Retroviral Therapy (HAART) in both low- and high-resource settings, few data support that fact in low-resource settings.</p> <p>This study describes the incidence of AIDS-defining illnesses (ADI) after HAART initiation and analyzes their risk factors in a low-resource setting. A focus was put on CD4 cell counts and viral load measurements.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>404 HIV-1-infected Senegalese adult patients were enrolled in a prospective observational cohort and data censored as of April 2008. A Poisson regression was used to model the incidence of ADIs over two periods and to assess its association with baseline variables, current CD4, current viral load, CD4 response, and virological response.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ADI incidence declined from 20.5 ADIs per 100 person-years, 95% CI = [16.3;25.8] during the first year to 4.3, 95% CI = [2.3;8.1] during the fourth year but increased afterwards. Before 42 months, the decrease was greater in patients with clinical stage CDC-C at baseline and with a viral load remaining below 1000 cp/mL but was uniform across CD4 strata (p = 0.1). After 42 months, 293 patients were still at risk. The current CD4 and viral load were associated with ADI incidence (decrease of 21% per 50 CD4/mm³and of 61% for patients with a viral load < 1000 cp/mL).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>During the first four years, a uniform decline of ADI incidence was observed even in patients with low CD4-cell counts at HAART initiation as long as the viral load remained undetectable. An increase was noted later in patients with immunologic and virological failures but also in patients with only virological failure.</p

Women experience a better long-term immune recovery and a better survival on HAART in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In April 2003, Médecins Sans Frontières launched an HIV/AIDS programme to provide free HAART to HIV-infected patients in Laos. Although HIV prevalence is estimated as low in this country, it has been increasing in the last years. This work reports the first results of an observational cohort study and it aims to identify the principal determinants of the CD4 cells evolution and to assess mortality among patients on HAART.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a retrospective database analysis on patients initiated on HAART between 2003 and 2009 (CD4<200cells/μL or WHO stage 4). We excluded from the analysis patients who were less than 16 years old and pregnant women. To explore the determinants of the CD4 reconstitution, a linear mixed model was adjusted. To identify typical trajectories of the CD4 cells, a latent trajectory analysis was carried out. Finally, a Cox proportional-hazards model was used to reveal predictors of mortality on HAART including appointment delay greater than 1 day.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1365 patients entered the programme and 913 (66.9%) received an HAART with a median CD4 of 49 cells/μL [IQR 15–148]. High baseline CD4 cell count and female gender were associated with a higher CD4 level over time. In addition, this gender difference increased over time. Two typical latent CD4 trajectories were revealed showing that 31% of women against 22% of men followed a high CD4 trajectory. In the long-term, women were more likely to attend appointments without delay. Mortality reached 6.2% (95% CI 4.8-8.0%) at 4 months and 9.1% (95% CI 7.3-11.3%) at 1 year. Female gender (HR=0.17, 95% CI 0.07-0.44) and high CD4 trajectory (HR=0.19, 95% CI 0.08-0.47) were independently associated with a lower death rate.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Patients who initiated HAART were severely immunocompromised yielding to a high early mortality. In the long-term on HAART, women achieved a better CD4 cells reconstitution than men and were less likely to die. This study highlights important differences between men and women regarding response to HAART and medical care, and questions men’s compliance to treatment.</p