Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change

Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species’ distribution and phenology changes

Dynamic Limits on Planar Libration-Orbit Coupling Around an Oblate Primary

This paper explores the dynamic properties of the planar system of an ellipsoidal satellite in an equatorial orbit about an oblate primary. In particular, we investigate the conditions for which the satellite is bound in librational motion or when the satellite will circulate with respect to the primary. We find the existence of stable equilibrium points about which the satellite can librate, and explore both the linearized and non-linear dynamics around these points. Absolute bounds are placed on the phase space of the libration-orbit coupling through the use of zero-velocity curves that exist in the system. These zero-velocity curves are used to derive a sufficient condition for when the satellite's libration is bound to less than 90 degrees. When this condition is not satisfied so that circulation of the satellite is possible, the initial conditions at zero libration angle are determined which lead to circulation of the satellite. Exact analytical conditions for circulation and the maximum libration angle are derived for the case of a small satellite in orbits of any eccentricity.Comment: Submitted to Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronom

Chronic psychosocial and financial burden accelerates 5-year telomere shortening: findings from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study.

Leukocyte telomere length, a marker of immune system function, is sensitive to exposures such as psychosocial stressors and health-maintaining behaviors. Past research has determined that stress experienced in adulthood is associated with shorter telomere length, but is limited to mostly cross-sectional reports. We test whether repeated reports of chronic psychosocial and financial burden is associated with telomere length change over a 5-year period (years 15 and 20) from 969 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study, a longitudinal, population-based cohort, ages 18-30 at time of recruitment in 1985. We further examine whether multisystem resiliency, comprised of social connections, health-maintaining behaviors, and psychological resources, mitigates the effects of repeated burden on telomere attrition over 5 years. Our results indicate that adults with high chronic burden do not show decreased telomere length over the 5-year period. However, these effects do vary by level of resiliency, as regression results revealed a significant interaction between chronic burden and multisystem resiliency. For individuals with high repeated chronic burden and low multisystem resiliency (1 SD below the mean), there was a significant 5-year shortening in telomere length, whereas no significant relationships between chronic burden and attrition were evident for those at moderate and higher levels of resiliency. These effects apply similarly across the three components of resiliency. Results imply that interventions should focus on establishing strong social connections, psychological resources, and health-maintaining behaviors when attempting to ameliorate stress-related decline in telomere length among at-risk individuals

Timed inhibition of CDC7 increases CRISPR-Cas9 mediated templated repair.

Repair of double strand DNA breaks (DSBs) can result in gene disruption or gene modification via homology directed repair (HDR) from donor DNA. Altering cellular responses to DSBs may rebalance editing outcomes towards HDR and away from other repair outcomes. Here, we utilize a pooled CRISPR screen to define host cell involvement in HDR between a Cas9 DSB and a plasmid double stranded donor DNA (dsDonor). We find that the Fanconi Anemia (FA) pathway is required for dsDonor HDR and that other genes act to repress HDR. Small molecule inhibition of one of these repressors, CDC7, by XL413 and other inhibitors increases the efficiency of HDR by up to 3.5 fold in many contexts, including primary T cells. XL413 stimulates HDR during a reversible slowing of S-phase that is unexplored for Cas9-induced HDR. We anticipate that XL413 and other such rationally developed inhibitors will be useful tools for gene modification

Mutations in protocadherin 15 and cadherin 23 affect tip links and mechanotransduction in mammalian sensory hair cells

Immunocytochemical studies have shown that protocadherin-15 (PCDH15) and cadherin-23 (CDH23) are associated with tip links, structures thought to gate the mechanotransducer channels of hair cells in the sensory epithelia of the inner ear. The present report describes functional and structural analyses of hair cells from Pcdh15av3J (av3J), Pcdh15av6J (av6J) and Cdh23v2J (v2J) mice. The av3J and v2J mice carry point mutations that are predicted to introduce premature stop codons in the transcripts for Pcdh15 and Cdh23, respectively, and av6J mice have an in-frame deletion predicted to remove most of the 9th cadherin ectodomain from PCDH15. Severe disruption of hair-bundle morphology is observed throughout the early-postnatal cochlea in av3J/av3J and v2J/v2J mice. In contrast, only mild-to-moderate bundle disruption is evident in the av6J/av6J mice. Hair cells from av3J/av3J mice are unaffected by aminoglycosides and fail to load with [3H]-gentamicin or FM1-43, compounds that permeate the hair cell's mechanotransducer channels. In contrast, hair cells from av6J/av6J mice load with both FM1-43 and [3H]-gentamicin, and are aminoglycoside sensitive. Transducer currents can be recorded from hair cells of all three mutants but are reduced in amplitude in all mutants and have abnormal directional sensitivity in the av3J/av3J and v2J/v2J mutants. Scanning electron microscopy of early postnatal cochlear hair cells reveals tip-link like links in av6J/av6J mice, substantially reduced numbers of links in the av3J/av3J mice and virtually none in the v2J/v2J mice. Analysis of mature vestibular hair bundles reveals an absence of tip links in the av3J/av3J and v2J/v2J mice and a reduction in av6J/av6J mice. These results therefore provide genetic evidence consistent with PCDH15 and CDH23 being part of the tip-link complex and necessary for normal mechanotransduction

ERCC1 expression and RAD51B activity correlate with cell cycle response to platinum drug treatment not DNA repair

Background: The H69CIS200 and H69OX400 cell lines are novel models of low-level platinum-drug resistance. Resistance was not associated with increased cellular glutathione or decreased accumulation of platinum, rather the resistant cell lines have a cell cycle alteration allowing them to rapidly proliferate post drug treatment. Results: A decrease in ERCC1 protein expression and an increase in RAD51B foci activity was observed in association with the platinum induced cell cycle arrest but these changes did not correlate with resistance or altered DNA repair capacity. The H69 cells and resistant cell lines have a p53 mutation and consequently decrease expression of p21 in response to platinum drug treatment, promoting progression of the cell cycle instead of increasing p21 to maintain the arrest. Conclusion: Decreased ERCC1 protein and increased RAD51B foci may in part be mediating the maintenance of the cell cycle arrest in the sensitive cells. Resistance in the H69CIS200 and H69OX400 cells may therefore involve the regulation of ERCC1 and RAD51B independent of their roles in DNA repair. The novel mechanism of platinum resistance in the H69CIS200 and H69OX400 cells demonstrates the multifactorial nature of platinum resistance which can occur independently of alterations in DNA repair capacity and changes in ERCC1

Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature

Associations between fruit and vegetable intake, leisure-time physical activity, sitting time and self-rated health among older adults : cross-sectional data from the WELL study

BackgroundLifestyle behaviours, such as healthy diet, physical activity and sedentary behaviour, are key elements of healthy ageing and important modifiable risk factors in the prevention of chronic diseases. Little is known about the relationship between these behaviours in older adults. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and sitting time (ST), and their association with self-rated health in older adults.MethodsThis cross-sectional study comprised 3,644 older adults (48% men) aged 55-65 years, who participated in the Wellbeing, Eating and Exercise for a Long Life ("WELL") study. Respondents completed a postal survey about their health and their eating and physical activity behaviours in 2010 (38% response rate). Spearman\u27s coefficient (rho) was used to evaluate the relationship between F&V intake, LTPA and ST. Their individual and shared associations with self-rated health were examined using ordinal logistic regression models, stratified by sex and adjusted for confounders (BMI, smoking, long-term illness and socio-demographic characteristics).ResultsThe correlations between F&V intake, LTPA and ST were low. F&V intake and LTPA were positively associated with self-rated health. Each additional serving of F&V or MET-hour of LTPA were associated with approximately 10% higher likelihood of reporting health as good or better among women and men. The association between ST and self-rated health was not significant in the multivariate analysis. A significant interaction was found (ST*F&V intake). The effect of F&V intake on self-rated health increased with increasing ST in women, whereas the effect decreased with increasing ST in men.ConclusionThis study contributes to the scarce literature related to lifestyle behaviours and their association with health indicators among older adults. The findings suggest that a modest increase in F&V intake, or LTPA could have a marked effect on the health of older adults. Further research is needed to fully understand the correlates and determinants of lifestyle behaviours, particularly sitting time, in this age group

Risk Factors for Breast Cancer and Expression of Insulin-Like Growth Factor-2 (IGF-2) in Women with Breast Cancer in Wuhan City, China

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors for breast cancer and establish the expression rate of IGF-2 in female patients. METHODS: A case control study with 500 people in case group and 500 people in control group. A self-administered questionnaire was used to investigate risk factors for breast cancer. All cases were interviewed during a household survey. Immune-histochemical method was used to inspect the expression of IGF-2 in different tissues (benign breast lesions, breast cancer and tumor-adjacent tissue). RESULTS: Multivariate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. High body mass index (OR = 1.012,95%CI = 1.008-1.016), working attributes (OR = 1.004, 95%CI = 1.002 = 1.006), long menstrual period (OR = 1.007, 95%CI = 1.005-1.009), high parity OR = 1.003, 95%CI = 1.001-1.005) , frequent artificial abortion (OR = 1.004, 95%CI = 1.001-1.005), family history of cancer (OR = 1.003, 95%CI = 1.000-1.005), period of night shift (OR = 1.003, 95%CI = 1.001-1.006), live in high risk environment (OR = 1.005, 95%CI = 1.002-1.008), and family problems (OR = 1.010, 95%CI = 1.005-1.014) were associated with increased risk for breast cancer. In this study, good sleeping status, positive coping strategies, subjective support, and utility degree of social support were associated with reduced risk for breast cancer (OR = 0.998, 0.997, 0.985, 0.998 respectively; 95%CI = 0.996-1.000, 0.994-1.000, 0.980-0.989, 0.996-1.000, respectively). In benign breast lesions, breast cancer and tumor-adjacent tissue, IGF-2 was mainly expressed in the cytoplasm, but its expression rate was different (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of breast cancer is a common result of multiple factors. IGF-2 is involved in the development of breast cancer, and its expression varies in different tissues (benign breast lesions, breast cancer and tumor-adjacent tissue)