Engineering design applications of surrogate-assisted optimization techniques

The construction of models aimed at learning the behaviour of a system whose responses to inputs are expensive to measure is a branch of statistical science that has been around for a very long time. Geostatistics has pioneered a drive over the last half century towards a better understanding of the accuracy of such ‘surrogate’ models of the expensive function. Of particular interest to us here are some of the even more recent advances related to exploiting such formulations in an optimization context. While the classic goal of the modelling process has been to achieve a uniform prediction accuracy across the domain, an economical optimization process may aim to bias the distribution of the learning budget towards promising basins of attraction. This can only happen, of course, at the expense of the global exploration of the space and thus finding the best balance may be viewed as an optimization problem in itself. We examine here a selection of the state of-the-art solutions to this type of balancing exercise through the prism of several simple, illustrative problems, followed by two ‘real world’ applications: the design of a regional airliner wing and the multi-objective search for a low environmental impact hous

Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers.

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California

A Primary Care Nurse-Delivered Walking Intervention in Older Adults: PACE (Pedometer Accelerometer Consultation Evaluation)-Lift Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial.

Background: Brisk walking in older people can increase step-counts and moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) in ≥10-minute bouts, as advised in World Health Organization guidelines. Previous interventions have reported step-count increases, but not change in objectively measured MVPA in older people. We assessed whether a primary care nurse-delivered complex intervention increased objectively measured step-counts and MVPA. Methods and Findings: A total of 988 60–75 year olds, able to increase walking and randomly selected from three UK family practices, were invited to participate in a parallel two-arm cluster randomised trial; randomisation was by household. Two-hundred-ninety-eight people from 250 households were randomised between 2011 and 2012; 150 individuals to the intervention group, 148 to the usual care control group. Intervention participants received four primary care nurse physical activity (PA) consultations over 3 months, incorporating behaviour change techniques, pedometer step-count and accelerometer PA intensity feedback, and an individual PA diary and plan. Assessors were not blinded to group status, but statistical analyses were conducted blind. The primary outcome was change in accelerometry assessed average daily step-counts between baseline and 3 months, with change at 12 months a secondary outcome. Other secondary outcomes were change from baseline in time in MVPA weekly in ≥10-minute bouts, accelerometer counts, and counts/minute at 3 months and 12 months. Other outcomes were adverse events, anthropometric measures, mood, and pain. Qualitative evaluations of intervention participants and practice nurses assessed the intervention’s acceptability. At 3 months, eight participants had withdrawn or were lost to follow-up, 280 (94%) individuals provided primary outcome data. At 3 months changes in both average daily step-counts and weekly MVPA in ≥10-minute bouts were significantly higher in the intervention than control group: by 1,037 (95% CI 513–1,560) steps/day and 63 (95% CI 40–87) minutes/week, respectively. At 12 months corresponding differences were 609 (95% CI 104–1,115) steps/day and 40 (95% CI 17–63) minutes/week. Counts and counts/minute showed similar effects to steps and MVPA. Adverse events, anthropometry, mood, and pain were similar in the two groups. Participants and practice nurses found the intervention acceptable and enjoyable. Conclusions : The PACE-Lift trial increased both step-counts and objectively measured MVPA in ≥10-minute bouts in 60–75 year olds at 3 and 12 months, with no effect on adverse events. To our knowledge, this is the first trial in this age group to demonstrate objective MVPA increases and highlights the value of individualised support incorporating objective PA assessment in a primary care setting. Trial Registration: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN4212256

Paediatric intensive care admissions of preterm children born <32 weeks gestation: a national retrospective cohort study using data linkage

Objective: Survival of babies born very preterm (<32 weeks gestational age) has increased, although preterm-born children may have ongoing morbidity. We aimed to investigate the risk of admission to paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) of children born very preterm following discharge home from neonatal care. Design: Retrospective cohort study, using data linkage of National Neonatal Research Database and the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network datasets. Setting: All neonatal units and PICUs in England and Wales. Patients: Children born very preterm between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2018 and admitted to neonatal units. Main outcome measures: Admission to PICU after discharge home from neonatal care, before 2 years of age. Results: Of the 40 690 children discharged home from neonatal care, there were 2308 children (5.7%) with at least one admission to PICU after discharge. Of these children, there were 1901 whose first PICU admission after discharge was unplanned. The percentage of children with unplanned PICU admission varied by gestation, from 10.2% of children born <24 weeks to 3.3% born at 31 weeks. Following adjustment, unplanned PICU admission was associated with lower gestation, male sex (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.79), bronchopulmonary dysplasia (aOR 1.37), necrotising enterocolitis requiring surgery (aOR 1.39) and brain injury (aOR 1.42). For each week of increased gestation, the aOR was 0.90. Conclusions: Most babies born <32 weeks and discharged home from neonatal care do not require PICU admission in the first 2 years. The odds of unplanned admissions to PICU were greater in the most preterm and those with significant neonatal morbidity. Data availability statement: Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. PICANet data may be requested from the data controller, the Healthcare Quality Improvement Partnership (HQIP). A Data Access Request Form can be obtained from https://www.hqip.org.uk/national-programmes/accessing-ncapop-data/%23.XQeml_lKhjU

Sex-dependent influence of endogenous estrogen in pulmonary hypertension

Rationale: The incidence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is greater in women suggesting estrogens may play a role in the disease pathogenesis. Experimentally, in males exogenously administered estrogen can protect against PH; however in models that display female susceptibility estrogens may play a causative role. Objectives: To clarify the influence of endogenous estrogen and gender in PH and assess the therapeutic potential of a clinically available aromatase inhibitor. Methods: We interrogated the effect of reduced endogenous estrogen in males and females using the aromatase inhibitor, anastrozole, in two models of PH; the hypoxic mouse and Sugen 5416/hypoxic rat. We also determined the effects of gender on pulmonary expression of aromatase in these models and in lungs from PAH patients. Results: Anastrozole attenuated PH in both models studied, but only in females. To verify this effect was due to reduced estrogenic activity we confirmed that in hypoxic mice inhibition of estrogen receptor alpha also has a therapeutic effect specifically in females. Female rodent lung displays increased aromatase and decreased BMPR2 and Id1 expression compared to male. Anastrozole treatment reversed the impaired BMPR2 pathway in females. Increased aromatase expression was also detected in female human pulmonary artery smooth muscle cells compared to male. Conclusions: The unique phenotype of female pulmonary arteries facilitates the therapeutic effects of anastrozole in experimental PH confirming a role for endogenous estrogen in the disease pathogenesis in females and suggests aromatase inhibitors may have therapeutic potential

Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) analysis of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor isolates from Mozambique that harbour the classical CTX prophage.

Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates belonging to the Ogawa serotype, El Tor biotype, harbouring the classical CTX prophage were first isolated in Mozambique in 2004. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) analysis using nine genetic loci showed that the Mozambique isolates have the same sequence type (ST) as O1 El Tor N16961, a representative of the current seventh cholera pandemic. Analysis of the CTX prophage in the Mozambique isolates indicated that there is one type of rstR in these isolates: the classical CTX prophage. It was also found that the ctxB-rstR-rstA-rstB-phs-cep fragment was PCR-amplified from these isolates, which indicates the presence of a tandem repeat of the classical CTX prophage in the genome of the Mozambique isolates. The possible origin of these isolates and the presence of the tandem repeat of the classical prophage in them implicate the presence of the classical CTX phage

Are We Making Progress in Medical Education?

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75582/1/j.1525-1497.2006.00446.x.pd