A plague on five of your houses - statistical re-assessment of three pneumonic plague outbreaks that occurred in Suffolk, England, between 1906 and 1918

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Plague is a re-emerging disease and its pneumonic form is a high priority bio-terrorist threat. Epidemiologists have previously analysed historical outbreaks of pneumonic plague to better understand the dynamics of infection, transmission and control. This study examines 3 relatively unknown outbreaks of pneumonic plague that occurred in Suffolk, England, during the first 2 decades of the twentieth century.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test is used to compare the symptomatic period and the length of time between successive cases (i.e. the serial interval) with previously reported values. Consideration is also given to the case fatality ratio, the average number of secondary cases resulting from each primary case in the observed minor outbreaks (termed <it>R</it>_{<it>minor</it>}), and the proportion of individuals living within an affected household that succumb to pneumonic plague via the index case (i.e. the household secondary attack rate (SAR)).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>2 of the 14 cases survived giving a case fatality ratio of 86% (95% confidence interval (CI) = {57%, 98%}). For the 12 fatal cases, the average symptomatic period was 3.3 days (standard deviation (SD) = 1.2 days) and, for the 11 non index cases, the average serial interval was 5.8 days (SD = 2.0 days). <it>R</it>_{<it>minor </it>}was calculated to be 0.9 (SD = 1.0) and, in 2 households, the SAR was approximately 14% (95% CI = {0%, 58%}) and 20% (95% CI = {1%, 72%}), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The symptomatic period was approximately 1 day longer on average than in an earlier study but the serial interval was in close agreement with 2 previously reported values. 2 of the 3 outbreaks ended without explicit public health interventions; however, non-professional caregivers were particularly vulnerable - an important public health consideration for any future outbreak of pneumonic plague.</p

A quantitative analysis of transmission efficiency versus intensity for malaria

The relationship between malaria transmission intensity and efficiency is important for malaria epidemiology, for the design of randomized control trials that measure transmission or incidence as end points, and for measuring and modelling malaria transmission and control. Five kinds of studies published over the past century were assembled and reanalysed to quantify malaria transmission efficiency and describe its relation to transmission intensity, to understand the causes of inefficient transmission and to identify functions suitable for modelling mosquito-borne disease transmission. In this study, we show that these studies trace a strongly nonlinear relationship between malaria transmission intensity and efficiency that is parsimoniously described by a model of heterogeneous biting. When many infectious bites are concentrated on a few people, infections and parasite population structure will be highly aggregated affecting the immunoepidemiology of malaria, the evolutionary ecology of parasite life history traits and the measurement and stratification of transmission for control using entomological and epidemiological data

Neurospora from natural populations: Population genomics insights into the Life history of a model microbial Eukaryote

The ascomycete filamentous fungus Neurospora crassa played a historic role in experimental biology and became a model system for genetic research. Stimulated by a systematic effort to collect wild strains initiated by Stanford geneticist David Perkins, the genus Neurospora has also become a basic model for the study of evolutionary processes, speciation, and population biology. In this chapter, we will first trace the history that brought Neurospora into the era of population genomics. We will then cover the major contributions of population genomic investigations using Neurospora to our understanding of microbial biogeography and speciation, and review recent work using population genomics and genome-wide association mapping that illustrates the unique potential of Neurospora as a model for identifying the genetic basis of (potentially adaptive) phenotypes in filamentous fungi. The advent of population genomics has contributed to firmly establish Neurospora as a complete model system and we hope our review will entice biologists to include Neurospora in their research

Environmental factors associated with the malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus in Kenya

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>and <it>Anopheles funestus </it>mosquito species complexes are the primary vectors of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. To better understand the environmental factors influencing these species, the abundance, distribution and transmission data from a south-eastern Kenyan study were retrospectively analysed, and the climate, vegetation and elevation data in key locations compared.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirty villages in Malindi, Kilifi and Kwale Districts with data on <it>An. gambiae sensu strict</it>, <it>Anopheles arabiensis</it> and <it>An. funestus</it> entomological inoculation rates (EIRs), were used as focal points for spatial and environmental analyses. Transmission patterns were examined for spatial autocorrelation using the Moran's <it>I </it>statistic, and for the clustering of high or low EIR values using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Environmental data were derived from remote-sensed satellite sources of precipitation, temperature, specific humidity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and elevation. The relationship between transmission and environmental measures was examined using bivariate correlations, and by comparing environmental means between locations of high and low clustering using the Mann-Whitney <it>U </it>test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Spatial analyses indicated positive autocorrelation of <it>An. arabiensis </it>and <it>An. funestus </it>transmission, but not of <it>An. gambiae s.s</it>., which was found to be widespread across the study region. The spatial clustering of high EIR values for <it>An. arabiensis </it>was confined to the lowland areas of Malindi, and for <it>An. funestus </it>to the southern districts of Kilifi and Kwale. Overall, <it>An. gambiae s.s</it>. and <it>An. arabiensis </it>had similar spatial and environmental trends, with higher transmission associated with higher precipitation, but lower temperature, humidity and NDVI measures than those locations with lower transmission by these species and/or in locations where transmission by <it>An. funestus </it>was high. Statistical comparisons indicated that precipitation and temperatures were significantly different between the <it>An. arabiensis </it>and <it>An. funestus </it>high and low transmission locations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These finding suggest that the abundance, distribution and malaria transmission of different malaria vectors are driven by different environmental factors. A better understanding of the specific ecological parameters of each malaria mosquito species will help define their current distributions, and how they may currently and prospectively be affected by climate change, interventions and other factors.</p

Kin discrimination and possible cryptic species in the social amoeba Polysphondylium violaceum

Abstract Background The genetic diversity of many protists is unknown. The differences that result from this diversity can be important in interactions among individuals. The social amoeba Polysphondylium violaceum, which is a member of the Dictyostelia, has a social stage where individual amoebae aggregate together to form a multicellular fruiting body with dead stalk cells and live spores. Individuals can either cooperate with amoebae from the same clone, or sort to form clonal fruiting bodies. In this study we look at genetic diversity in P. violaceum and at how this diversity impacts social behavior. Results The phylogeny of the ribosomal DNA sequence (17S to 5.8S region) shows that P. violaceum is made up of at least two groups. Mating compatibility is more common between clones from the same phylogenetic group, though matings between clones from different phylogenetic groups sometimes occurred. P. violaceum clones are more likely to form clonal fruiting bodies when they are mixed with clones from a different group than when they are mixed with a clone of the same group. Conclusion Both the phylogenetic and mating analyses suggest the possibility of cryptic species in P. violaceum. The level of divergence found within P. violaceum is comparable to the divergence between sibling species in other dictyostelids. Both major groups A/B and C/D/E/F show kin discrimination, which elevates relatedness within fruiting bodies but not to the level of clonality. The diminished cooperation in mixes between groups suggests that the level of genetic variation between individuals influences the extent of their cooperation

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements

Fundamental questions remain about the origin of newly formed atmospheric aerosol particles because data from laboratory measurements have been insufficient to build global models. In contrast, gas-phase chemistry models have been based on laboratory kinetics measurements for decades. Here we build a global model of aerosol formation using extensive laboratory-measured nucleation rates involving sulfuric acid, ammonia, ions and organic compounds. The simulations and a comparison with atmospheric observations show that nearly all nucleation throughout the present-day atmosphere involves ammonia or biogenic organic compounds in addition to sulfuric acid. A significant fraction of nucleation involves ions, but the relatively weak dependence on ion concentrations indicates that for the processes studied variations in cosmic ray intensity do not significantly affect climate via nucleation in the present-day atmosphere

Changes in elderly women's health-related quality of life following discontinuation of hormone replacement therapy

BACKGROUND: Many women have discontinued hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in view of recent findings. The goal of this study was to determine if HRT discontinuation is associated with changes in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in elderly women. METHODS: We studied women enrolled in Pennsylvania's Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly (PACE) program, linking prescription claims with data from a longitudinal mail survey. HRQOL measures included the number of days out of the last 30 that physical health was not good and analogous measures for mental health, pain, and interference with activities, as well as a composite "healthy days" measure developed by CDC. Longitudinal analyses focused on 2,357 women who completed surveys in both 2002 and 2003, and who used HRT at baseline (mean age = 75.5, range = 65–102). Propensity scores were used to match HRT continuers and discontinuers according to HRT type, demographics, and baseline HRQOL. Analysis of covariance was used to compare HRQOL change in continuers and discontinuers. RESULTS: Between 2002 and 2003, 43% of HRT users discontinued therapy. Analysis of covariance to examine HRQOL change revealed complex interactions with age. Discontinuers aged 65–74 reported greater increases in days in which mental health was not good (p < .05), fewer "healthy days" (p < .05), more days in which health interfered with activities (p < .01), and more days with pain (p < .01). Among women aged 75–84, HRT discontinuers reported more days in which physical health was not good (p < .01); no other significant effects were observed in this group. Relative to HRT continuers, discontinuers aged 85 and older experienced apparent HRQOL improvements following cessation, with fewer days in which physical health was not good (p < .01), fewer days of poor mental health (p < .05), and more "healthy days" (p < .01). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that there are substantial age differences in response to HRT discontinuation. While women aged 65–74 experienced apparent declines in HRQOL following HRT cessation, women aged 85 and older experienced relative improvements. The HRQOL declines observed among younger women underscore the importance of communication between clinicians and patients throughout the discontinuation process. These results also demonstrate the value of HRQOL surveillance as a component of health program administration

Induction of Olig2+ Precursors by FGF Involves BMP Signalling Blockade at the Smad Level

During normal development oligodendrocyte precursors (OPCs) are generated in the ventral spinal cord in response to Sonic hedgehog (Shh) signalling. There is also a second, late wave of oligodendrogenesis in the dorsal spinal cord independent of Shh activity. Two signalling pathways, controlled by bone morphogenetic protein and fibroblast growth factor (FGF), are active players in dorsal spinal cord specification. In particular, BMP signalling from the roof plate has a crucial role in setting up dorsal neural identity and its inhibition is sufficient to generate OPCs both in vitro and in vivo. In contrast, FGF signalling can induce OPC production from dorsal spinal cord cultures in vitro. In this study, we examined the cross-talk between mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) and BMP signalling in embryonic dorsal spinal cord cultures at the SMAD1/5/8 (SMAD1) transcription factor level, the main effectors of BMP activity. We have previously shown that FGF2 treatment of neural precursor cells (NPCs) derived from rat E14 dorsal spinal cord is sufficient to generate OPCs in vitro. Utilising the same system, we now show that FGF prevents BMP-induced nuclear localisation of SMAD1-phosphorylated at the C-terminus (C-term-pSMAD1). This nuclear exclusion of C-term-pSMAD1 is dependent on MAPK activity and correlates with OLIG2 upregulation, the obligate transcription factor for oligodendrogenesis. Furthermore, inhibition of the MAPK pathway abolishes OLIG2 expression. We also show that SMAD4, which acts as a common partner for receptor-regulated Smads including SMAD1, associates with a Smad binding site in the Olig2 promoter and dissociates from it upon differentiation. Taken together, these results suggest that FGF can promote OPC generation from embryonic NPCs by counteracting BMP signalling at the Smad1 transcription factor level and that Smad-containing transcriptional complexes may be involved in direct regulation of the Olig2 promoter