Quantifying the risk of multiple myeloma from symptoms reported in primary care patients: a large case-control study using electronic records

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Royal College of General Practitioners via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: Patients with myeloma experience the longest diagnostic delays compared with patients with other cancers in the UK; 37% are diagnosed through emergency presentations. AIM: To identify and quantify the risk of myeloma from specific clinical features reported by primary care patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Matched case-control study using General Practice Research Database primary care electronic records. METHOD: Putative clinical features of myeloma were identified and analysed using conditional logistic regression. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated for the consulting population. RESULTS: A total of 2703 patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with myeloma between 2000 and 2009, and 12 157 age, sex, and general practice-matched controls were identified. Sixteen features were independently associated with myeloma: hypercalcaemia, odds ratio 11.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.1 to 18), cytopenia 5.4 (95% CI = 4.6 to 6.4), raised inflammatory markers 4.9 (95% CI = 4.2 to 5.8), fracture 3.1 (95% CI = 2.3 to 4.2), raised mean corpuscular volume 3.1 (95% CI = 2.4 to 4.1), weight loss 3.0 (95% CI = 2.0 to 4.5), nosebleeds 3.0 (95% CI = 1.9 to 4.7), rib pain 2.5 (95% CI = 1.5 to 4.4), back pain 2.2 (95% CI = 2.0 to 2.4), other bone pain 2.1 (95% CI = 1.4 to 3.1), raised creatinine 1.8 (95% CI = 1.5 to 2.2), chest pain 1.6 (95% CI = 1.4 to 1.8), joint pain 1.6 (95% CI = 1.2 to 2.2), nausea 1.5 (95% CI = 1.1 to 2.1), chest infection 1.4 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.6), and shortness of breath 1.3 (95% CI = 1.1 to 1.5). Individual symptom PPVs were generally 10% for some symptoms when combined with leucopenia or hypercalcaemia. CONCLUSION: Individual symptoms of myeloma in primary care are generally low risk, probably explaining diagnostic delays. Once simple primary care blood tests are taken, risk estimates change. Hypercalcaemia and leucopenia are particularly important abnormalities, and coupled with symptoms, strongly suggest myeloma.This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Grant Reference Number RP-PG-0608- 10045). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. Fiona M Walter is part-funded by a NIHR Clinician Scientist award. Richard D Neal is part funded by Public Health Wales and Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board

Probing Density Fluctuations using the FIRST Radio Survey

We use results of angular clustering measurements in 3000 sq. deg's of the FIRST radio survey to infer information on spatial clustering. Measurements are compared with CDM-model predictions. Clustering of FIRST sources with optical ID's in the APM catalog are also investigated. Finally, we outline a preliminary search for a weak lensing signal in the survey.Comment: 6 pages latex, 2 figures, to appear in Cosmology with the New Radio Surveys (Kluwer

Causal connectivity of evolved neural networks during behavior

To show how causal interactions in neural dynamics are modulated by behavior, it is valuable to analyze these interactions without perturbing or lesioning the neural mechanism. This paper proposes a method, based on a graph-theoretic extension of vector autoregressive modeling and 'Granger causality,' for characterizing causal interactions generated within intact neural mechanisms. This method, called 'causal connectivity analysis' is illustrated via model neural networks optimized for controlling target fixation in a simulated head-eye system, in which the structure of the environment can be experimentally varied. Causal connectivity analysis of this model yields novel insights into neural mechanisms underlying sensorimotor coordination. In contrast to networks supporting comparatively simple behavior, networks supporting rich adaptive behavior show a higher density of causal interactions, as well as a stronger causal flow from sensory inputs to motor outputs. They also show different arrangements of 'causal sources' and 'causal sinks': nodes that differentially affect, or are affected by, the remainder of the network. Finally, analysis of causal connectivity can predict the functional consequences of network lesions. These results suggest that causal connectivity analysis may have useful applications in the analysis of neural dynamics

Assessing connectivity between an overlying aquifer and a coal seam gas resource using methane isotopes, dissolved organic carbon and tritium

Coal seam gas (CSG) production can have an impact on groundwater quality and quantity in adjacent or overlying aquifers. To assess this impact we need to determine the background groundwater chemistry and to map geological pathways of hydraulic connectivity between aquifers. In south-east Queensland (Qld), Australia, a globally important CSG exploration and production province, we mapped hydraulic connectivity between the Walloon Coal Measures (WCM, the target formation for gas production) and the overlying Condamine River Alluvial Aquifer (CRAA), using groundwater methane (CH4) concentration and isotopic composition (δ13C-CH4), groundwater tritium (3H) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. A continuous mobile CH4 survey adjacent to CSG developments was used to determine the source signature of CH4 derived from the WCM. Trends in groundwater δ13C-CH4 versus CH4 concentration, in association with DOC concentration and 3H analysis, identify locations where CH4 in the groundwater of the CRAA most likely originates from the WCM. The methodology is widely applicable in unconventional gas development regions worldwide for providing an early indicator of geological pathways of hydraulic connectivity

Cavalier King Charles Spaniels with Chiari-like malformation and Syringomyelia have increased variability of spatio-temporal gait characteristics

Abstract Background Chiari-like malformation in the Cavalier King Charles Spaniel is a herniation of the cerebellum and brainstem into or through the foramen magnum. This condition predisposes to Syringomyelia; fluid filled syrinxes within the spinal cord. The resulting pathology in spinal cord and cerebellum create neuropathic pain and changes in gait. This study aims to quantify the changes in gait for Cavalier King Charles Spaniel with Chiari-like malformation and Syringomyelia. Methods We compared Cavalier King Charles Spaniel with Chiari-like malformation with (n = 9) and without (n = 8) Syringomyelia to Border Terriers (n = 8). Two video cameras and manual tracking was used to quantify gait parameters. Results and conclusions We found a significant increase in coefficient of variation for the spatio-temporal characteristics and ipsilateral distance between paws and a wider base of support in the thoracic limbs but not in the pelvic limbs for Cavalier King Charles Spaniels compared with the border terrier

Effect of an opt-out point-of-care HIV-1 nucleic acid testing intervention to detect acute and prevalent HIV infection in symptomatic adult outpatients and reduce HIV transmission in Kenya: a randomized controlled trial

Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, adult outpatients with symptoms of acute infectious illness are not routinely tested for prevalent or acute HIV infection (AHI) when seeking healthcare. Methods: Adult symptomatic outpatients aged 18–39 years were evaluated by a consensus AHI risk score. Patients with a risk score ≥ 2 and no previous HIV diagnosis were enrolled in a stepped-wedge trial of opt-out delivery of point-of-care (POC) HIV-1 nucleic acid testing (NAAT), compared with standard provider-initiated HIV testing using rapid tests in the observation period. The primary outcome was the number of new diagnoses in each study period. Generalized estimating equations with a log-binomial link and robust variance estimates were used to account for clustering by health facility. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03508908. Results: Between 2017 and 2020, 13 (0.9%) out of 1374 participants in the observation period and 37 (2.5%) out of 1500 participants in the intervention period were diagnosed with HIV infection. Of the 37 newly diagnosed cases in the intervention period, two (5.4%) had AHI. Participants in the opt-out intervention had a two-fold greater odds of being diagnosed with HIV (odds ratio = 2.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.39–3.51) after adjustment for factors imbalanced across study periods. Conclusions: Among symptomatic adults aged 18–39 years targeted by our POC NAAT intervention, we identified one chronic HIV infection for every 40 patients and one AHI patient for every 750 patients tested. Although AHI yield was low in this population, routinely offered opt-out testing could diagnose twice as many patients as an approach relying on provider discretion

Randomized clinical trial to evaluate the effect of fecal microbiota transplant for initial Clostridium difficile infection in intestinal microbiome

Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of fecal donor-unrelated donor mix (FMT-FURM) transplantation as first-line therapy for C. difficile infection (CDI) in intestinal microbiome. Methods We designed an open, two-arm pilot study with oral vancomycin (250mg every 6 h for 10–14 days) or FMT-FURM as treatments for the first CDI episode in hospitalized adult patients in Hospital Universitario “Dr. Jose Eleuterio Gonzalez”. Patients were randomized by a closed envelope method in a 1: 1 ratio to either oral vancomycin or FMT-FURM. CDI resolution was considered when there was a reduction on the Bristol scale of at least 2 points, a reduction of at least 50% in the number of bowel movements, absence of fever, and resolution of abdominal pain (at least two criteria). From each patient, a fecal sample was obtained at days 0, 3, and 7 after treatment. Specimens were cultured to isolate C. difficile, and isolates were characterized by PCR. Susceptibility testing of isolates was performed using the agar dilution method. Fecal samples and FMT-FURM were analyzed by 16S rRNA sequencing. Results We included 19 patients; 10 in the vancomycin arm and 9 in the FMT-FURM arm. However, one of the patients in the vancomycin arm and two patients in the FMT-FURM arm were eliminated. Symptoms resolved in 8/9 patients (88.9%) in the vancomycin group, while symptoms resolved in 4/7 patients (57.1%) after the first FMT-FURM dose (P = 0.26) and in 5/7 patients (71.4%) after the second dose (P = 0.55). During the study, no adverse effects attributable to FMT-FURM were observed in patients. Twelve isolates were recovered, most isolates carried tcdB, tcdA, cdtA, and cdtB, with an 18-bp deletion in tcdC. All isolates were resistant to ciprofloxacin and moxifloxacin but susceptible to metronidazole, linezolid, fidaxomicin, and tetracycline. In the FMT-FURM group, the bacterial composition was dominated by Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, and Proteobacteria at all-time points and the microbiota were remarkably stable over time. The vancomycin group showed a very different pattern of the microbial composition when comparing to the FMT-FURM group over time. Conclusion The results of this preliminary study showed that FMT-FURM for initial CDI is associated with specific bacterial communities that do not resemble the donors’ sample.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Autoregression as a means of assessing the strength of seasonality in a time series

BACKGROUND: The study of the seasonal variation of disease is receiving increasing attention from health researchers. Available statistical tests for seasonality typically indicate the presence or absence of statistically significant seasonality but do not provide a meaningful measure of its strength. METHODS: We propose the coefficient of determination of the autoregressive regression model fitted to the data ([Image: see text]) as a measure for quantifying the strength of the seasonality. The performance of the proposed statistic is assessed through a simulation study and using two data sets known to demonstrate statistically significant seasonality: atrial fibrillation and asthma hospitalizations in Ontario, Canada. RESULTS: The simulation results showed the power of the [Image: see text] in adequately quantifying the strength of the seasonality of the simulated observations for all models. In the atrial fibrillation and asthma datasets, while the statistical tests such as Bartlett's Kolmogorov-Smirnov (BKS) and Fisher's Kappa support statistical evidence of seasonality for both, the [Image: see text] quantifies the strength of that seasonality. Corroborating the visual evidence that asthma is more conspicuously seasonal than atrial fibrillation, the calculated [Image: see text] for atrial fibrillation indicates a weak to moderate seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.44, 0.28 and 0.45 for both genders, males and females respectively), whereas for asthma, it indicates a strong seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.82, 0.78 and 0.82 for both genders, male and female respectively). CONCLUSIONS: For the purposes of health services research, evidence of the statistical presence of seasonality is insufficient to determine the etiologic, clinical and policy relevance of findings. Measurement of the strength of the seasonal effect, as can be determined using the [Image: see text] technique, is also important in order to provide a robust sense of seasonality

Abdominal venous thrombosis presenting in myeloproliferative neoplasm with JAK2 V617F mutation: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>An unprovoked thombotic event in a patient is cause for further evaluation of an underlying hypercoaguable state. The investigation should include a thorough search, including checking for a variety of known inherited and acquired hypercoaguble states (protein C or S deficiency, anti-phospholipid antibodies, and anti-thrombin III deficiency) and gene mutations that predispose patients to an increased risk of clotting (for example, prothrombin gene 20210 mutation, factor V Leiden, and the <it>JAK2 V617F </it>mutation).</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report the case of a 38-year-old Caucasian woman with spontaneous, unprovoked abdominal venous thrombosis and demonstrate how testing for the <it>JAK2 V617F </it>mutation was useful in unmasking an underlying hypercoaguable state.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>JAK2 V617F</it>-positive myeloproliferative neoplasm was diagnosed. This case illustrates the importance of testing for <it>JAK2 V617F </it>in patients presenting with Budd-Chiari syndrome, even in the absence of overt hematologic abnormalities, in order to establish a diagnosis of underlying myeloproliferative neoplasm.</p

Tissue-engineered tracheal replacement in a child: a 4-year follow-up study

In 2010, a tissue-engineered trachea was transplanted into a 10-year-old child using a decellularized deceased donor trachea repopulated with the recipient's respiratory epithelium and mesenchymal stromal cells. We report the child's clinical progress, tracheal epithelialization and costs over the 4 years. A chronology of events was derived from clinical notes and costs determined using reference costs per procedure. Serial tracheoscopy images, lung function tests and anti-HLA blood samples were compared. Epithelial morphology and T cell, Ki67 and cleaved caspase 3 activity were examined. Computational fluid dynamic simulations determined flow, velocity and airway pressure drops. After the first year following transplantation, the number of interventions fell and the child is currently clinically well and continues in education. Endoscopy demonstrated a complete mucosal lining at 15 months, despite retention of a stent. Histocytology indicates a differentiated respiratory layer and no abnormal immune activity. Computational fluid dynamic analysis demonstrated increased velocity and pressure drops around a distal tracheal narrowing. Cross-sectional area analysis showed restriction of growth within an area of in-stent stenosis. This report demonstrates the long-term viability of a decellularized tissue-engineered trachea within a child. Further research is needed to develop bioengineered pediatric tracheal replacements with lower morbidity, better biomechanics and lower costs