Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model

BACKGROUND: Previous smallpox ring vaccination models based on contact tracing over a network suggest that ring vaccination would be effective, but have not explicitly included response logistics and limited numbers of vaccinators. METHODS: We developed a continuous-time stochastic simulation of smallpox transmission, including network structure, post-exposure vaccination, vaccination of contacts of contacts, limited response capacity, heterogeneity in symptoms and infectiousness, vaccination prior to the discontinuation of routine vaccination, more rapid diagnosis due to public awareness, surveillance of asymptomatic contacts, and isolation of cases. RESULTS: We found that even in cases of very rapidly spreading smallpox, ring vaccination (when coupled with surveillance) is sufficient in most cases to eliminate smallpox quickly, assuming that 95% of household contacts are traced, 80% of workplace or social contacts are traced, and no casual contacts are traced, and that in most cases the ability to trace 1–5 individuals per day per index case is sufficient. If smallpox is assumed to be transmitted very quickly to contacts, it may at times escape containment by ring vaccination, but could be controlled in these circumstances by mass vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Small introductions of smallpox are likely to be easily contained by ring vaccination, provided contact tracing is feasible. Uncertainties in the nature of bioterrorist smallpox (infectiousness, vaccine efficacy) support continued planning for ring vaccination as well as mass vaccination. If initiated, ring vaccination should be conducted without delays in vaccination, should include contacts of contacts (whenever there is sufficient capacity) and should be accompanied by increased public awareness and surveillance

Minimal Conformal Technicolor and Precision Electroweak Tests

We study the minimal model of conformal technicolor, an SU(2) gauge theory near a strongly coupled conformal fixed point, with conformal symmetry softly broken by technifermion mass terms. Conformal symmetry breaking triggers chiral symmetry breaking in the pattern SU(4) -> Sp(4), which gives rise to a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson that can act as a composite Higgs boson. The top quark is elementary, and the top and electroweak gauge loop contributions to the Higgs mass are cut off entirely by Higgs compositeness. In particular, the model requires no top partners and no "little Higgs" mechanism. A nontrivial vacuum alignment results from the interplay of the top loop and technifermion mass terms. The composite Higgs mass is completely determined by the top loop, in the sense that m_h/m_t is independent of the vacuum alignment and is computable by a strong-coupling calculation. There is an additional composite pseudoscalar A with mass larger than m_h and suppressed direct production at LHC. We discuss the electroweak fit in this model in detail. Corrections to Z -> bb and the T parameter from the top sector are suppressed by the enhanced Sp(4) custodial symmetry. Even assuming that the strong contribution to the S parameter is positive and usuppressed, a good electroweak fit can be obtained for v/f ~ 0.25, where v and f are the electroweak and chiral symmetry breaking scales respectively. This requires fine tuning at the 10% level.Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures; v2: updated precision electroweak fi

Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data.</p> <p>Main findings</p> <p>First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3–5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.</p

Exploring the interpersonal-, organization-, and system-level factors that influence the implementation and use of an innovation-synoptic reporting-in cancer care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The dominant method of reporting findings from diagnostic and surgical procedures is the narrative report. In cancer care, this report inconsistently provides the information required to understand the cancer and make informed patient care decisions. Another method of reporting, the synoptic report, captures specific data items in a structured manner and contains only items critical for patient care. Research demonstrates that synoptic reports vastly improve the quality of reporting. However, synoptic reporting represents a complex innovation in cancer care, with implementation and use requiring fundamental shifts in physician behaviour and practice, and support from the organization and larger system. The objective of this study is to examine the key interpersonal, organizational, and system-level factors that influence the implementation and use of synoptic reporting in cancer care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study involves three initiatives in Nova Scotia, Canada, that have implemented synoptic reporting within their departments/programs. Case study methodology will be used to study these initiatives (the cases) in-depth, explore which factors were barriers or facilitators of implementation and use, examine relationships amongst factors, and uncover which factors appear to be similar and distinct across cases. The cases were selected as they converge and differ with respect to factors that are likely to influence the implementation and use of an innovation in practice. Data will be collected through in-depth interviews, document analysis, observation of training sessions, and examination/use of the synoptic reporting tools. An audit will be performed to determine/quantify use. Analysis will involve production of a case record/history for each case, in-depth analysis of each case, and cross-case analysis, where findings will be compared and contrasted across cases to develop theoretically informed, generalisable knowledge that can be applied to other settings/contexts. Ethical approval was granted for this study.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will contribute to our knowledge base on the multi-level factors, and the relationships amongst factors in specific contexts, that influence implementation and use of innovations such as synoptic reporting in healthcare. Such knowledge is critical to improving our understanding of implementation processes in clinical settings, and to helping researchers, clinicians, and managers/administrators develop and implement ways to more effectively integrate innovations into routine clinical care.</p

Female responses to experimental removal of sexual selection components in Drosophila melanogaster

Despite the common assumption that multiple mating should in general be favored in males, but not in females, to date there is no consensus on the general impact of multiple mating on female fitness. Notably, very little is known about the genetic and physiological features underlying the female response to sexual selection pressures. By combining an experimental evolution approach with genomic techniques, we investigated the effects of single and multiple matings on female fecundity and gene expression. We experimentally manipulated the opportunity for mating in replicate populations of Drosophila melanogaster by removing components of sexual selection, with the aim of testing differences in short term post-mating effects of females evolved under different mating strategies

Transmission patterns of smallpox: systematic review of natural outbreaks in Europe and North America since World War II

BACKGROUND: Because smallpox (variola major) may be used as a biological weapon, we reviewed outbreaks in post-World War II Europe and North America in order to understand smallpox transmission patterns. METHODS: A systematic review was used to identify papers from the National Library of Medicine, Embase, Biosis, Cochrane Library, Defense Technical Information Center, WorldCat, and reference lists of included publications. Two authors reviewed selected papers for smallpox outbreaks. RESULTS: 51 relevant outbreaks were identified from 1,389 publications. The median for the effective first generation reproduction rate (initial R) was 2 (range 0–38). The majority outbreaks were small (less than 5 cases) and contained within one generation. Outbreaks with few hospitalized patients had low initial R values (median of 1) and were prolonged if not initially recognized (median of 3 generations); outbreaks with mostly hospitalized patients had higher initial R values (median 12) and were shorter (median of 3 generations). Index cases with an atypical presentation of smallpox were less likely to have been diagnosed with smallpox; outbreaks in which the index case was not correctly diagnosed were larger (median of 27.5 cases) and longer (median of 3 generations) compared to outbreaks in which the index case was correctly diagnosed (median of 3 cases and 1 generation). CONCLUSION: Patterns of spread during Smallpox outbreaks varied with circumstances, but early detection and implementation of control measures is a most important influence on the magnitude of outbreaks. The majority of outbreaks studied in Europe and North America were controlled within a few generations if detected early

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Experimental mutation-accumulation on the X chromosome of Drosophila melanogaster reveals stronger selection on males than females

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Sex differences in the magnitude or direction of mutational effect may be important to a variety of population processes, shaping the mutation load and affecting the cost of sex itself. These differences are expected to be greatest after sexual maturity. Mutation-accumulation (MA) experiments provide the most direct way to examine the consequences of new mutations, but most studies have focused on juvenile viability without regard to sex, and on autosomes rather than sex chromosomes; both adult fitness and X-linkage have been little studied. We therefore investigated the effects of 50 generations of X-chromosome mutation accumulation on the fitness of males and females derived from an outbred population of <it>Drosophila melanogaster</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Fitness declined rapidly in both sexes as a result of MA, but adult males showed markedly greater fitness loss relative to their controls compared to females expressing identical genotypes, even when females were made homozygous for the X. We estimate that these mutations are partially additive (h ~ 0.3) in females. In addition, the majority of new mutations appear to harm both males and females.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data helps fill a gap in our understanding of the consequences of sexual selection for genetic load, and suggests that stronger selection on males may indeed purge deleterious mutations affecting female fitness.</p

Visual Exploration and Object Recognition by Lattice Deformation

Mechanisms of explicit object recognition are often difficult to investigate and require stimuli with controlled features whose expression can be manipulated in a precise quantitative fashion. Here, we developed a novel method (called “Dots”), for generating visual stimuli, which is based on the progressive deformation of a regular lattice of dots, driven by local contour information from images of objects. By applying progressively larger deformation to the lattice, the latter conveys progressively more information about the target object. Stimuli generated with the presented method enable a precise control of object-related information content while preserving low-level image statistics, globally, and affecting them only little, locally. We show that such stimuli are useful for investigating object recognition under a naturalistic setting – free visual exploration – enabling a clear dissociation between object detection and explicit recognition. Using the introduced stimuli, we show that top-down modulation induced by previous exposure to target objects can greatly influence perceptual decisions, lowering perceptual thresholds not only for object recognition but also for object detection (visual hysteresis). Visual hysteresis is target-specific, its expression and magnitude depending on the identity of individual objects. Relying on the particular features of dot stimuli and on eye-tracking measurements, we further demonstrate that top-down processes guide visual exploration, controlling how visual information is integrated by successive fixations. Prior knowledge about objects can guide saccades/fixations to sample locations that are supposed to be highly informative, even when the actual information is missing from those locations in the stimulus. The duration of individual fixations is modulated by the novelty and difficulty of the stimulus, likely reflecting cognitive demand