Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Glycerol treatment as recovery procedure for cryopreserved human skin allografts positive for bacteria and fungi

Human donor skin allografts are suitable and much used temporary biological (burn) wound dressings. They prepare the excised wound bed for final autografting and form an excellent substrate for revascularisation and for the formation of granulation tissue. Two preservation methods, glycerol preservation and cryopreservation, are commonly used by tissue banks for the long-term storage of skin grafts. The burn surgeons of the Queen Astrid Military Hospital preferentially use partly viable cryopreserved skin allografts. After mandatory 14-day bacterial and mycological culture, however, approximately 15% of the cryopreserved skin allografts cannot be released from quarantine because of positive culture. To maximize the use of our scarce and precious donor skin, we developed a glycerolisation-based recovery method for these culture positive cryopreserved allografts. The inactivation and preservation method, described in this paper, allowed for an efficient inactivation of the colonising bacteria and fungi, with the exception of spore-formers, and did not influence the structural and functional aspects of the skin allografts

High performing hospitals: a qualitative systematic review of associated factors and practical strategies for improvement.

BACKGROUND: High performing hospitals attain excellence across multiple measures of performance and multiple departments. Studying high performing hospitals can be valuable if factors associated with high performance can be identified and applied. Factors leading to high performance are complex and an exclusive quantitative approach may fail to identify richly descriptive or relevant contextual factors. The objective of this study was to undertake a systematic review of qualitative literature to identify methods used to identify high performing hospitals, the factors associated with high performers, and practical strategies for improvement. METHODS: Methods used to collect and summarise the evidence contributing to this review followed the 'enhancing transparency in reporting the synthesis of qualitative research' protocol. Peer reviewed studies were identified through Medline, Embase and Cinahl (Jan 2000-Feb 2014) using specified key words, subject terms, and medical subject headings. Eligible studies required the use of a quantitative method to identify high performing hospitals, and qualitative methods or tools to identify factors associated with high performing hospitals or hospital departments. Title, abstract, and full text screening was undertaken by four reviewers, and inter-rater reliability statistics were calculated for each review phase. Risk of bias was assessed. Following data extraction, thematic syntheses identified contextual factors important for explaining success. Practical strategies for achieving high performance were then mapped against the identified themes. RESULTS: A total of 19 studies from a possible 11,428 were included in the review. A range of process, output, outcome and other indicators were used to identify high performing hospitals. Seven themes representing factors associated with high performance (and 25 sub-themes) emerged from the thematic syntheses: positive organisational culture, senior management support, effective performance monitoring, building and maintaining a proficient workforce, effective leaders across the organisation, expertise-driven practice, and interdisciplinary teamwork. Fifty six practical strategies for achieving high performance were catalogued. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides insights into methods used to identify high performing hospitals, and yields ideas about the factors important for success. It highlights the need to advance approaches for understanding what constitutes high performance and how to harness factors associated with high performance

Demographic Diversity and Sustainable Fisheries

Fish species are diverse. For example, some exhibit early maturation while others delay maturation, some adopt semelparous reproductive strategies while others are iteroparous, and some are long-lived and others short-lived. The diversity is likely to have profound effects on fish population dynamics, which in turn has implications for fisheries management. In this study, a simple density-dependent stage-structured population model was used to investigate the effect of life history traits on sustainable yield, population resilience, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the adult abundance. The study showed that semelparous fish can produce very high sustainable yields, near or above 50% of the carrying capacity, whereas long-lived iteroparous fish can produce very low sustainable yields, which are often much less than 10% of the carrying capacity. The difference is not because of different levels of sustainable fishing mortality rate, but because of difference in the sensitivity of the equilibrium abundance to fishing mortality. On the other hand, the resilience of fish stocks increases from delayed maturation to early maturation strategies but remains almost unchanged from semelparous to long-lived iteroparous. The CV of the adult abundance increases with increased fishing mortality, not because more individuals are recruited into the adult stage (as previous speculated), but because the mean abundance is more sensitive to fishing mortality than its standard deviation. The magnitudes of these effects vary depending on the life history strategies of the fish species involved. It is evident that any past high yield of long-lived iteroparous fish is a transient yield level, and future commercial fisheries should focus more on fish that are short-lived (including semelparous species) with high compensatory capacity

Clinical knee findings in floor layers with focus on meniscal status

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of self-reported and clinical knee morbidity among floor layers compared to a group of graphic designers, with special attention to meniscal status.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We obtained information about knee complaints by questionnaire and conducted a bilateral clinical and radiographic knee examination in 134 male floor layers and 120 male graphic designers. After the exclusion of subjects with reports of earlier knee injuries the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of knee complaints and clinical findings were computed among floor layers compared to graphic designers, using logistic regression. Estimates were adjusted for effects of body mass index, age and knee straining sports. Using radiographic evaluations, we conducted side-specific sensitivity analyses regarding clinical signs of meniscal lesions after the exclusion of participants with tibiofemoral (TF) osteoarthritis (OA).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Reports of knee pain (OR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.5–4.6), pain during stair walking (OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.3–3.9) and symptoms of catching of the knee joint (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.4–5.7) were more prevalent among floor layers compared to graphic designers. Additionally, significant more floor layers than graphic designers had clinical signs suggesting possible meniscal lesions: a positive McMurray test (OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.1–5.0) and TF joint line tenderness (OR = 5.4, 95% CI = 2.4–12.0). Excluding floor layers (n = 22) and graphic designers (n = 15) with radiographic TF OA did not alter this trend between the two study groups: a positive McMurray test (OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.0–4.9), TF joint line tenderness (OR = 5.0, 95% CI = 2.0–12.5).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Results indicate that floor layers have a high prevalence of both self-reported and clinical knee morbidity. Clinical knee findings suggesting possible meniscal lesions were significant more prevalent among floor layers compared to a group of low-level exposed graphic designers and an association with occupational kneeling could be possible. However, causality cannot be confirmed due to the cross-sectional study design.</p

Clinical knee findings in floor layers with focus on meniscal status

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of self-reported and clinical knee morbidity among floor layers compared to a group of graphic designers, with special attention to meniscal status.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We obtained information about knee complaints by questionnaire and conducted a bilateral clinical and radiographic knee examination in 134 male floor layers and 120 male graphic designers. After the exclusion of subjects with reports of earlier knee injuries the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of knee complaints and clinical findings were computed among floor layers compared to graphic designers, using logistic regression. Estimates were adjusted for effects of body mass index, age and knee straining sports. Using radiographic evaluations, we conducted side-specific sensitivity analyses regarding clinical signs of meniscal lesions after the exclusion of participants with tibiofemoral (TF) osteoarthritis (OA).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Reports of knee pain (OR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.5–4.6), pain during stair walking (OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.3–3.9) and symptoms of catching of the knee joint (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.4–5.7) were more prevalent among floor layers compared to graphic designers. Additionally, significant more floor layers than graphic designers had clinical signs suggesting possible meniscal lesions: a positive McMurray test (OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.1–5.0) and TF joint line tenderness (OR = 5.4, 95% CI = 2.4–12.0). Excluding floor layers (n = 22) and graphic designers (n = 15) with radiographic TF OA did not alter this trend between the two study groups: a positive McMurray test (OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.0–4.9), TF joint line tenderness (OR = 5.0, 95% CI = 2.0–12.5).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Results indicate that floor layers have a high prevalence of both self-reported and clinical knee morbidity. Clinical knee findings suggesting possible meniscal lesions were significant more prevalent among floor layers compared to a group of low-level exposed graphic designers and an association with occupational kneeling could be possible. However, causality cannot be confirmed due to the cross-sectional study design.</p

Early predictors of impaired social functioning in male rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta)

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by social cognition impairments but its basic disease mechanisms remain poorly understood. Progress has been impeded by the absence of animal models that manifest behavioral phenotypes relevant to ASD. Rhesus monkeys are an ideal model organism to address this barrier to progress. Like humans, rhesus monkeys are highly social, possess complex social cognition abilities, and exhibit pronounced individual differences in social functioning. Moreover, we have previously shown that Low-Social (LS) vs. High-Social (HS) adult male monkeys exhibit lower social motivation and poorer social skills. It is not known, however, when these social deficits first emerge. The goals of this study were to test whether juvenile LS and HS monkeys differed as infants in their ability to process social information, and whether infant social abilities predicted later social classification (i.e., LS vs. HS), in order to facilitate earlier identification of monkeys at risk for poor social outcomes. Social classification was determined for N = 25 LS and N = 25 HS male monkeys that were 1–4 years of age. As part of a colony-wide assessment, these monkeys had previously undergone, as infants, tests of face recognition memory and the ability to respond appropriately to conspecific social signals. Monkeys later identified as LS vs. HS showed impairments in recognizing familiar vs. novel faces and in the species-typical adaptive ability to gaze avert to scenes of conspecific aggression. Additionally, multivariate logistic regression using infant social ability measures perfectly predicted later social classification of all N = 50 monkeys. These findings suggest that an early capacity to process important social information may account for differences in rhesus monkeys’ motivation and competence to establish and maintain social relationships later in life. Further development of this model will facilitate identification of novel biological targets for intervention to improve social outcomes in at-risk young monkeys

Mantle Pb paradoxes : the sulfide solution

Author Posting. © Springer, 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology 152 (2006): 295-308, doi:10.1007/s00410-006-0108-1.There is growing evidence that the budget of Pb in mantle peridotites is largely contained in sulfide, and that Pb partitions strongly into sulfide relative to silicate melt. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that diffusion rates of Pb in sulfide (solid or melt) are very fast. Given the possibility that sulfide melt ‘wets’ sub-solidus mantle silicates, and has very low viscosity, the implications for Pb behavior during mantle melting are profound. There is only sparse experimental data relating to Pb partitioning between sulfide and silicate, and no data on Pb diffusion rates in sulfides. A full understanding of Pb behavior in sulfide may hold the key to several long-standing and important Pb paradoxes and enigmas. The classical Pb isotope paradox arises from the fact that all known mantle reservoirs lie to the right of the Geochron, with no consensus as to the identity of the “balancing” reservoir. We propose that long-term segregation of sulfide (containing Pb) to the core may resolve this paradox. Another Pb paradox arises from the fact that the Ce/Pb ratio of both OIB and MORB is greater than bulk earth, and constant at a value of 25. The constancy of this “canonical ratio” implies similar partition coefficients for Ce and Pb during magmatic processes (Hofmann et al. 1986), whereas most experimental studies show that Pb is more incompatible in silicates than Ce. Retention of Pb in residual mantle sulfide during melting has the potential to bring the bulk partitioning of Ce into equality with Pb if the sulfide melt/silicate melt partition coefficient for Pb has a value of ~ 14. Modeling shows that the Ce/Pb (or Nd/Pb) of such melts will still accurately reflect that of the source, thus enforcing the paradox that OIB and MORB mantles have markedly higher Ce/Pb (and Nd/Pb) than the bulk silicate earth. This implies large deficiencies of Pb in the mantle sources for these basalts. Sulfide may play other important roles during magmagenesis: 1). advective/diffusive sulfide networks may form potent metasomatic agents (in both introducing and obliterating Pb isotopic heterogeneities in the mantle); 2). silicate melt networks may easily exchange Pb with ambient mantle sulfides (by diffusion or assimilation), thus ‘sampling’ Pb in isotopically heterogeneous mantle domains differently from the silicate-controlled isotope tracer systems (Sr, Nd, Hf), with an apparent ‘de-coupling’ of these systems.Our intemperance should not be blamed on the support we gratefully acknowledge from NSF: EAR- 0125917 to SRH and OCE-0118198 to GAG

Bringing analysis of gender and social–ecological resilience together in small-scale fisheries research: Challenges and opportunities

The demand for gender analysis is now increasingly orthodox in natural resource programming, including that for small-scale fisheries. Whilst the analysis of social–ecological resilience has made valuable contributions to integrating social dimensions into research and policy-making on natural resource management, it has so far demonstrated limited success in effectively integrating considerations of gender equity. This paper reviews the challenges in, and opportunities for, bringing a gender analysis together with social–ecological resilience analysis in the context of small-scale fisheries research in developing countries. We conclude that rather than searching for a single unifying framework for gender and resilience analysis, it will be more effective to pursue a plural solution in which closer engagement is fostered between analysis of gender and social-ecological resilience whilst preserving the strengths of each approach. This approach can make an important contribution to developing a better evidence base for small-scale fisheries management and policy