Quantifying how user-interaction can modify the perception of the value of climate information: A Bayesian approach

ArticleThis is the final version of the article. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.The growing attention user relevance is receiving in the context of climate services is giving new light to engagement activities. However, while there is an almost unanimous consensus that these are important to the delivery of usable services, there is relatively little quantitative evidence of their impact on the usefulness of the service or its value as perceived by the users and decision-makers. Using a simple Bayesian decision theoretic framework, we have analysed how the perceived value of the service changes as a function of the user’s belief in the accuracy of the forecast. Based on this, we conclude, that, at least for the generic users adopted for our analysis, 30 or more repeated forecasts may be needed to ascertain the real user value of a predictive service. However, we argue that engagement between users and service providers can play a significant role in modifying the perceived accuracy and value of the service, bringing it closer in line with the objective evaluation. This requires feedback from users on both the specific climate information content and its presentation, alongside exploring the user’s attitude to risk. If appropriate engagement can be achieved, this work suggests that it has the potential to alter the overall perceived cost-benefit ratio over a relatively short period of time, enabling users to make best use of the available climate information.This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). The authors wish to acknowledge all of those who contributed indirectly to the development of the EUPORIAS winter transport prototype (Seasonal Prototype: Risk of Impacts from NAO on Transport; http://sprint.euporias.eu/), through scientific discussion, review, data provision, stakeholder engagement and facilitation: Erika Palin, Adam Scaife, Anca Brookshaw, Alberto Arribas, and the UK Department for Transport-led stakeholder group. The UK Government Department for Transport is acknowledged for providing financial support, in parallel to that received from EUPORIAS, for the SPRINT prototype. EUPORIAS was funded by the European Commission through the 7th Framework Programme for Research, grant agreement 308291

Microbiological quality of ready-to-eat fresh vegetables and their link to food safety environment and handling practices in restaurants

Accepted, unedited manuscript- Published on-line 22-July-2016 Pending copyediting, typesetting, and reviewing of proof, and publishing in its final form.he increased consumption of ready-to-eat salads outside homes as a result of a fast paced lifestyle, awareness on their nutritional attributes and enhanced processing technology is well documented. This study aimed to determine the microbiological quality of fresh-cut salads vegetables in small and medium sized foodservice establishments (SMEs) and to identify risk factors and handling practices through observational assessment in order to investigate if an association between microbiological quality and visual assessment (inspection) scores can be established. A total of 118 samples fresh-cut vegetable salads were collected from 50 inspected locations and analysed microbiologically, in addition to 49 swabs of knives and cutting boards. There was no statistically significant correlation between visual assessment scores and bacteriological counts on vegetables or cutting boards. Nonetheless, the consistent relationship between inspection ratings on cross-contamination and cleaning components and Listeria spp. levels was statistically significant. This study demonstrated that overall visual assessment scores would not directly reflect the safety of salad vegetables and that the significance of microbiological assessment should be considered in relation to individual inspection components. It is necessary to place effective control measures on cleaning standards and risk of cross-contamination to improve the microbiological safety of fresh salad vegetables in SME

Seasonal and depth-driven changes in rhodolith bed structure and associated macroalgae off Arvoredo island (southeastern Brazil)

Rhodoliths are formed by coralline red algae and can form heterogeneous substrata with high biodiversity. Here we describe a rhodolith bed at the southern limit of the known distribution of this habitat in the western Atlantic. We characterized rhodolith and macroalgal assemblages at 5, 10 and 15. m depth during summer and winter. Lithothamnion crispatum was dominant amongst the six rhodolith-forming species present. Most rhodoliths were spheroidal in shape indicating high mobility due to water movement. Rhodolith density decreased with increasing depth and during winter. Turf-forming seaweeds accounted for 60% of the biomass growing on rhodoliths. Macroalgae increased abundance and richness in the summer, but was similar between 5 and 15. m depth. They were less abundant and diverse than that recorded in rhodolith beds further north in Brazil. Both, season and depth, affected the structure of the macroalgae assemblages. We conclude that Lithothamniom is the most representative genus of Brazilian rhodolith beds. Summer is responsible for increasing the diversity and richness of macroalgae, as well as increasing rhodolith density. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

Understanding the routes of contamination of ready-to-eat vegetables in the Middle East

publisher: Elsevier articletitle: Understanding the routes of contamination of ready-to-eat vegetables in the Middle East journaltitle: Food Control articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foodcont.2015.10.024 content_type: article copyright: Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

What have we learnt from EUPORIAS climate service prototypes?

The international effort toward climate services, epitomised by the development of the Global Framework for Climate Services and, more recently the launch of Copernicus Climate Change Service has renewed interest in the users and the role they can play in shaping the services they will eventually use. Here we critically analyse the results of the five climate service prototypes that were developed as part of the EU funded project EUPORIAS. Starting from the experience acquired in each of the projects we attempt to distil a few key lessons which, we believe, will be relevant to the wider community of climate service developers

Exploring constraints on the realised value of a forecast-based climate service

This is the final version, also available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.The increasingly widespread use of climate services for decision-making has highlighted the need for service developers to more clearly establish the benefits and limitations of the information they provide. Using a simple cost/loss framework applied to an idealised forecast system, we explore the critical level of accuracy required for the expected utility of a predictive service to exceed a benchmark based on the climatological frequency of the hazard. In this simplest case, the critical accuracy is a function only of the cost/loss ratio for the decision and the climatological frequency. Although the utility of climate services depends on a number of non-climate-related factors, comparing current forecasting capabilities to an estimate of the critical accuracy can provide a guide to the expected marginal benefit of the climate service. More generally, to ensure that climate service evaluation is relevant to users it must account for the finite duration over which a climate service is used, since the realised performance can differ significantly from its expectation. Here, the statistical distribution of realised performance is used to quantify the prior likelihood that the service will outperform a benchmark as a function of accuracy, climatological frequency, cost/loss ratio and duration of usage. This information can help users assess the potential risks associated with adopting a climate service for a given period, and may help identify geographical regions and meteorological parameters for which a forecasting tool could provide a worthwhile investment with respect to the next-best alternative.Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

The influence of pre-wash chopping and storage conditions of parsley on the efficacy of disinfection against S. Typhimurium

Initial chopping of parsley before washing for subsequent processing into ready-to-eat foods later in the day is common in some restaurants. The aim was to evaluate the influence of pre-wash chopping on the S. Typhimurium decontamination by common washing and disinfection methods including the use of vinegar (4%, v/v, acetic acid), 0.25 g/l sodium dichloroisocyanurate (NaDCC), and water combined with manual agitation. This study demonstrated limited efficiency of applied methods and that holding pre-wash chopped leaves at 30 °C reduced the effectiveness of all washing solutions. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging indicated initiation of biofilm formation after 24 h at 5 °C with noticeable adhesion of cells to inaccessible folds of the vein on the leaf surface. NaDCC was shown to be the most effective solution achieving log reductions of 1.92–3.12 on intact parsley leaves. The latter being on those held at 5 °C for 4 h; However, its effectiveness was reduced by 0.73–0.93 and 1.19 log cfu/g on chopped leaves at 5 °C and on both intact and chopped leaves at 30 °C, respectively. In conclusion, strict temperature control and avoiding pre-wash chopping are highly recommended during handling of parsley for the optimal elimination of pathogenic microorganisms

FRACTIONAL PRECIPITATION OF SODIUM POLYPHOSPHATE AND CHARACTERIZATION BY P-31 NMR: AN EXPERIMENT FOR PYSICAL CHEMISTRY CLASSES.

FRACTIONAL PRECIPITATION OF SODIUM POLYPHOSPHATE AND CHARACTERIZATION BY P-31 NMR: AN EXPERIMENT FOR PYSICAL CHEMISTRY CLASSES. This text describes an experiment on fractional precipitation of a polymer together with determination of average degree of polymerization by NMR. Commercial sodium polyphosphate was fractionated by precipitation from aqueous solution by adding increasing amounts of acetone. The polydisperse salt and nine fractions obtained from it were analyzed by P-31 Nuclear Magnetic Resonance and the degree of polymerization of the salts and of the fractions were calculated. Long-chain sodium polyphosphate was also synthesized and analyzed. This experiment was tested in a PChem lab course but it can be used also to illustrate topics of inorganic polymers and analytical chemistry.3391991199

Telomerase Reverse Transcriptase Promoter Mutations in Bladder Cancer: High Frequency Across Stages, Detection in Urine, and Lack of Association with Outcome

Background: Hotspot mutations in the promoter of the gene coding for telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) have been described and proposed to activate gene expression. Objectives: To investigate TERT mutation frequency, spectrum, association with expression and clinical outcome, and potential for detection of recurrences in urine in patients with urothelial bladder cancer (UBC). Design, setting, and participants: A set of 111 UBCs of different stages was used to assess TERT promoter mutations by Sanger sequencing and TERT messenger RNA (mRNA) expression by reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The two most frequent mutations were investigated, using a SNaPshot assay, in an independent set of 184 non-muscle-invasive and 173 muscle-invasive UBC (median follow-up: 53 mo and 21 mo, respectively). Voided urine from patients with suspicion of incident UBC (n = 174), or under surveillance after diagnosis of non-muscle-invasive UBC (n = 194), was tested using a SNaPshot assay. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Association of mutation status with age, sex, tobacco, stage, grade, fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) mutation, progression-free survival, disease-specific survival, and overall survival. Results and limitations: In the two series, 78 of 111 (70%) and 283 of 357 (79%) tumors harbored TERT mutations, C228T being the most frequent substitution (83% for both series). TERT mutations were not associated with clinical or pathologic parameters, but were more frequent among FGFR3 mutant tumors (p = 0.0002). There was no association between TERT mutations and mRNA expression (p = 0.3). Mutations were not associated with clinical outcome. In urine, TERT mutations had 90% specificity in subjects with hematuria but no bladder tumor, and 73% in recurrence-free UBC patients. The sensitivity was 62% in incident and 42% in recurrent UBC. A limitation of the study is its retrospective nature. Conclusions: Somatic TERT promoter mutations are an early, highly prevalent genetic event in UBC and are not associated with TERT mRNA levels or disease outcomes. A SNaPshot assay in urine may help to detect UBC recurrences. (C) 2013 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved

Telomerase Reverse Transcriptase Promoter Mutations in Bladder Cancer: High Frequency Across Stages, Detection in Urine, and Lack of Association with Outcome

Background: Hotspot mutations in the promoter of the gene coding for telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) have been described and proposed to activate gene expression. Objectives: To investigate TERT mutation frequency, spectrum, association with expression and clinical outcome, and potential for detection of recurrences in urine in patients with urothelial bladder cancer (UBC). Design, setting, and participants: A set of 111 UBCs of different stages was used to assess TERT promoter mutations by Sanger sequencing and TERT messenger RNA (mRNA) expression by reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The two most frequent mutations were investigated, using a SNaPshot assay, in an independent set of 184 non-muscle-invasive and 173 muscle-invasive UBC (median follow-up: 53 mo and 21 mo, respectively). Voided urine from patients with suspicion of incident UBC (n = 174), or under surveillance after diagnosis of non-muscle-invasive UBC (n = 194), was tested using a SNaPshot assay. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Association of mutation status with age, sex, tobacco, stage, grade, fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) mutation, progression-free survival, disease-specific survival, and overall survival. Results and limitations: In the two series, 78 of 111 (70%) and 283 of 357 (79%) tumors harbored TERT mutations, C228T being the most frequent substitution (83% for both series). TERT mutations were not associated with clinical or pathologic parameters, but were more frequent among FGFR3 mutant tumors (p = 0.0002). There was no association between TERT mutations and mRNA expression (p = 0.3). Mutations were not associated with clinical outcome. In urine, TERT mutations had 90% specificity in subjects with hematuria but no bladder tumor, and 73% in recurrence-free UBC patients. The sensitivity was 62% in incident and 42% in recurrent UBC. A limitation of the study is its retrospective nature. Conclusions: Somatic TERT promoter mutations are an early, highly prevalent genetic event in UBC and are not associated with TERT mRNA levels or disease outcomes. A SNaPshot assay in urine may help to detect UBC recurrences. (C) 2013 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved