Facing Up to Longevity with Old Actuarial Methods: A Comparison of Pooled Funds and Income Tontines

We compare the concepts underlying modern actuarial solutions to pension insurance and present two recently developed pension products—pooled annuity overlay funds (based on actuarial fairness) and equitable income tontines (based on equitability). These two products adopt specific approaches to the management of longevity risk by mutualising it among participants rather than transferring it completely to the insurer. As the market would appear to be ready for such innovations, our study seeks to establish a general framework for their introduction. We stress that the notion of actuarial fairness, which characterises pooled annuity overlay funds, enables participants to join and exit the fund at any time. Such freedom of action is a quite remarkable feature and one that cannot be matched by lifelong contracts

Reservoir dynamics of rabies in Southeast Tanzania and the roles of cross-species transmission and domestic dog vaccination

1) Understanding the role of different species in the transmission of multi-host pathogens, such as rabies virus, is vital for effective control strategies. Across most of sub-Saharan Africa domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) are considered the reservoir for rabies, but the role of wildlife has been long debated. Here we explore the multi-host transmission dynamics of rabies across southeast Tanzania. 2) Between January 2011 and July 2019 data on probable rabies cases were collected in the regions of Lindi and Mtwara. Hospital records of animal-bite patients presenting to healthcare facilities were used as sentinels for animal contact tracing. The timing, location and species of probable rabid animals was used to reconstruct transmission trees to infer who infected whom and the relative frequencies of within-and between-species transmission. 3) During the study, 688 probable human rabies exposures were identified, resulting in 47 deaths. Of these exposures, 389 were from domestic dogs (56.5%) and 262 from jackals (38.1%). Over the same period 549 probable animal rabies cases were traced: 303 in domestic dogs (55.2%) and 221 in jackals (40.3%). 4) Although dog-to-dog transmission was most commonly inferred (40.5% of transmission events), a third of inferred events involved wildlife-to-wildlife transmission (32.6%) and evidence suggested some sustained transmission chains within jackal populations. 5) A steady decline in probable rabies cases in both humans and animals coincided with the implementation of widespread domestic dog vaccination during the first six years of the study. Following the lapse of this programme dog rabies cases began to increase in one of the northernmost districts. 6) Synthesis and applications: in southeast Tanzania, despite a relatively high incidence of rabies in wildlife and evidence of wildlife-to-wildlife transmission, domestic dogs remain essential to the reservoir of infection. Continued dog vaccination alongside improved surveillance would allow a fuller understanding of the role of wildlife in maintaining transmission in this area. Nonetheless, dog vaccination clearly suppressed rabies in both domestic dog and wildlife populations, reducing both public health and conservation risks and, if sustained, has potential to eliminate rabies from this region

Geographical drivers and predictable climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease’s true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning

Recognition of cancer warning signs and anticipated time to help-seeking in a population sample of adults in the UK

Background: Not recognising a symptom as suspicious is a common reason given by cancer patients for delayed help-seeking; but inevitably this is retrospective. We therefore investigated associations between recognition of warning signs for breast, colorectal and lung cancer and anticipated time to help-seeking for symptoms of each cancer. Methods: Computer-assisted telephone interviews were conducted with a population-representative sample (N=6965) of UK adults age greater than or equal to50 years, using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer scale. Anticipated time to help-seeking for persistent cough, rectal bleeding and breast changes was categorised as >2 vs less than or equal to2 weeks. Recognition of persistent cough, unexplained bleeding and unexplained lump as cancer warning signs was assessed (yes/no). Associations between recognition and help-seeking were examined for each symptom controlling for demographics and perceived ease of health-care access. Results: For each symptom, the odds of waiting for >2 weeks were significantly increased in those who did not recognise the related warning sign: breast changes: OR=2.45, 95% CI 1.47–4.08; rectal bleeding: OR=1.77, 1.36–2.30; persistent cough: OR=1.30, 1.17–1.46, independent of demographics and health-care access. Conclusion: Recognition of warning signs was associated with anticipating faster help-seeking for potential symptoms of cancer. Strategies to improve recognition are likely to facilitate earlier diagnosis

Interpreting ambiguous ‘trace’ results in Schistosoma mansoni CCA Tests: Estimating sensitivity and specificity of ambiguous results with no gold standard

Background The development of new diagnostics is an important tool in the fight against disease. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) is used to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of tests in the absence of a gold standard. The main field diagnostic for Schistosoma mansoni infection, Kato-Katz (KK), is not very sensitive at low infection intensities. A point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) test has been shown to be more sensitive than KK. However, CCA can return an ambiguous ‘trace’ result between ‘positive’ and ‘negative’, and much debate has focused on interpretation of traces results. Methodology/Principle findings We show how LCA can be extended to include ambiguous trace results and analyse S. mansoni studies from both Côte d’Ivoire (CdI) and Uganda. We compare the diagnostic performance of KK and CCA and the observed results by each test to the estimated infection prevalence in the population. Prevalence by KK was higher in CdI (13.4%) than in Uganda (6.1%), but prevalence by CCA was similar between countries, both when trace was assumed to be negative (CCAtn: 11.7% in CdI and 9.7% in Uganda) and positive (CCAtp: 20.1% in CdI and 22.5% in Uganda). The estimated sensitivity of CCA was more consistent between countries than the estimated sensitivity of KK, and estimated infection prevalence did not significantly differ between CdI (20.5%) and Uganda (19.1%). The prevalence by CCA with trace as positive did not differ significantly from estimates of infection prevalence in either country, whereas both KK and CCA with trace as negative significantly underestimated infection prevalence in both countries. Conclusions Incorporation of ambiguous results into an LCA enables the effect of different treatment thresholds to be directly assessed and is applicable in many fields. Our results showed that CCA with trace as positive most accurately estimated infection prevalence

Ten months of temporal variation in the clinical journey of hospitalised patients with COVID-19: an observational cohort

Background: There is potentially considerable variation in the nature and duration of the care provided to hospitalised patients during an infectious disease epidemic or pandemic. Improvements in care and clinician confidence may shorten the time spent as an inpatient, or the need for admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) or high density unit (HDU). On the other hand, limited resources at times of high demand may lead to rationing. Nevertheless, these variables may be used as static proxies for disease severity, as outcome measures for trials, and to inform planning and logistics. Methods: We investigate these time trends in an extremely large international cohort of 142,540 patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Investigated are: time from symptom onset to hospital admission, probability of ICU/HDU admission, time from hospital admission to ICU/HDU admission, hospital case fatality ratio (hCFR) and total length of hospital stay. Results: Time from onset to admission showed a rapid decline during the first months of the pandemic followed by peaks during August/September and December 2020. ICU/HDU admission was more frequent from June to August. The hCFR was lowest from June to August. Raw numbers for overall hospital stay showed little variation, but there is clear decline in time to discharge for ICU/HDU survivors. Conclusions: Our results establish that variables of these kinds have limitations when used as outcome measures in a rapidly-evolving situation. Funding: This work was supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Wellcome [215091/Z/18/Z] and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1209135]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Integrated Polygenic Tool Substantially Enhances Coronary Artery Disease Prediction

BACKGROUND: There is considerable interest in whether genetic data can be used to improve standard cardiovascular disease risk calculators, as the latter are routinely used in clinical practice to manage preventative treatment. METHODS: Using the UK Biobank resource, we developed our own polygenic risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD). We used an additional 60 000 UK Biobank individuals to develop an integrated risk tool (IRT) that combined our polygenic risk score with established risk tools (either the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology pooled cohort equations [PCE] or UK QRISK3), and we tested our IRT in an additional, independent set of 186 451 UK Biobank individuals. RESULTS: The novel CAD polygenic risk score shows superior predictive power for CAD events, compared with other published polygenic risk scores, and is largely uncorrelated with PCE and QRISK3. When combined with PCE into an IRT, it has superior predictive accuracy. Overall, 10.4% of incident CAD cases were misclassified as low risk by PCE and correctly classified as high risk by the IRT, compared with 4.4% misclassified by the IRT and correctly classified by PCE. The overall net reclassification improvement for the IRT was 5.9% (95% CI, 4.7–7.0). When individuals were stratified into age-by-sex subgroups, the improvement was larger for all subgroups (range, 8.3%–15.4%), with the best performance in 40- to 54-year-old men (15.4% [95% CI, 11.6–19.3]). Comparable results were found using a different risk tool (QRISK3) and also a broader definition of cardiovascular disease. Use of the IRT is estimated to avoid up to 12 000 deaths in the United States over a 5-year period. CONCLUSIONS: An IRT that includes polygenic risk outperforms current risk stratification tools and offers greater opportunity for early interventions. Given the plummeting costs of genetic tests, future iterations of CAD risk tools would be enhanced with the addition of a person’s polygenic risk

Metallothionein crypt-restricted immunopositivity indices (MTCRII) correlate with aberrant crypt foci (ACF) in mouse colon

Metallothionein (MT) crypt-restricted immunopositivity indices (MTCRII) are colonic crypt stem cell mutation markers that may be induced early and in abundance after mutagen treatment. Metallothionein is the endogenous reporter gene for MTCRII, but is not typically implicated in the classical pathway of colorectal tumorigenesis. Hence, the oncological relevance of MTCRII is unclear. This study tests the hypothesis that MTCRII induced by N-methyl-N-nitrosourea (MNU) and lambda carrageenan (λCgN) associate with aberrant crypt foci (ACF) in mouse colon. Undegraded λCgN and MNU were tested alone and in combination against MTCRII and ACF in Balb/c mice, at 20 weeks after the start of treatment. MTCRII were unaffected by λCgN alone. Combined λCgN/MNU treatments induced greater MTCRII (P<0.01) as well as greater number (P<0.001) and crypt multiplicity (P<0.01) of ACF than MNU alone. MTCRII were approximately 10-fold more numerous than ACF, although linear correlations were observed between these parameters (r=0.732; P<0.01). MTCRII are induced by λCgN/MNU interactions in sufficient numbers to provide statistical power from relatively small sample sizes and correlate with ACF formation. MTCRII could thus provide the basis for a novel medium-term murine bioassay relevant to early-stage colorectal tumorigenesis

Theory of Multidimensional Solitons

We review a number of topics germane to higher-dimensional solitons in Bose-Einstein condensates. For dark solitons, we discuss dark band and planar solitons; ring dark solitons and spherical shell solitons; solitary waves in restricted geometries; vortex rings and rarefaction pulses; and multi-component Bose-Einstein condensates. For bright solitons, we discuss instability, stability, and metastability; bright soliton engineering, including pulsed atom lasers; solitons in a thermal bath; soliton-soliton interactions; and bright ring solitons and quantum vortices. A thorough reference list is included.Comment: review paper, to appear as Chapter 5a in "Emergent Nonlinear Phenomena in Bose-Einstein Condensates: Theory and Experiment," edited by P. G. Kevrekidis, D. J. Frantzeskakis, and R. Carretero-Gonzalez (Springer-Verlag