Um modelo interdisciplinar para a macroeconomia

Macroeconomic modelling has been under intense scrutiny since the Great Financial Crisis, when serious shortcomings were exposed in the methodology used to understand the economy as a whole. Criticism has been levelled at the assumptions employed in the dominant models, particularly that economic agents are homogeneous and optimising and that the economy is equilibrating. This paper seeks to explore an interdisciplinary approach to macroeconomic modelling, with techniques drawn from other (natural and social) sciences. Specifically, it discusses agent-based modelling, which is used across a wide range of disciplines, as an example of such a technique. Agent-based models are complementary to existing approaches and are suited to answering macroeconomic questions where complexity, heterogeneity, networks, and heuristics play an important role.La modelación macroeconómica está bajo intenso escrutinio desde la gran crisis financiera, que dejó al descubierto los graves defectos de la metodología utilizada para entender la economía en su conjunto. Se critican los supuestos empleados en los modelos dominantes, en particular que los agentes económicos son homogéneos y optimizadores y que la economía se equilibra. Este escrito explora un enfoque interdisciplinario de modelación macroeconómica con técnicas tomadas de otras ciencias, y examina la modelación basada en agentes como ejemplo de esas técnicas. Los modelos basados en agentes complementan los enfoques existentes y son adecuados para responder preguntas macroeconómicas donde la complejidad, la heterogeneidad, las redes y las heurísticas cumplen un papel importante.A modelagem macroeconômica está sob intensa análise desde a grande crise financeira, que expôs as graves falhas da metodologia utilizada para entender a economia como um todo. As premissas utilizadas nos modelos dominantes são criticadas, em particular, que os agentes econômicos são homogêneos e otimizadores, e que a economia é equilibrada. Este artigo explora uma abordagem interdisciplinar da modelagem macroeconômica com técnicas emprestadas de outras ciências e examina a modelagem baseada em agentes como um exemplo dessas técnicas. Os modelos baseados em agentes complementam as abordagens existentes e são adequados para responder a questões macroeconômicas em que complexidade, heterogeneidade, redes e heurísticas desempenham um papel importante

Un modelo interdisciplinario para la macroeconomía

La modelación macroeconómica está bajo intenso escrutinio desde la gran crisis financiera, que dejó al descubierto los graves defectos de la metodología utilizada para entender la economía en su conjunto. Se critican los supuestos empleados en los modelos dominantes, en particular que los agentes económicos son homogéneos y optimizadores y que la economía se equilibra. Este escrito explora un enfoque interdisciplinario de modelación macroeconómica con técnicas tomadas de otras ciencias, y examina la modelación basada en agentes como ejemplo de esas técnicas. Los modelos basados en agentes complementan los enfoques existentes y son adecuados para responder preguntas macroeconómicas donde la complejidad, la heterogeneidad, las redes y las heurísticas cumplen un papel importante

Un modelo interdisciplinario para la macroeconomía

Macroeconomic modelling has been under intense scrutiny since the Great Financial Crisis, when serious shortcomings were exposed in the methodology used to understand the economy as a whole. Criticism has been levelled at the assumptions employed in the dominant models, particularly that economic agents are homogeneous and optimising and that the economy is equilibrating. This paper seeks to explore an interdisciplinary approach to macroeconomic modelling, with techniques drawn from other (natural and social) sciences. Specifically, it discusses agent-based modelling, which is used across a wide range of disciplines, as an example of such a technique. Agent-based models are complementary to existing approaches and are suited to answering macroeconomic questions where complexity, heterogeneity, networks, and heuristics play an important role.A modelagem macroeconômica está sob intensa análise desde a grande crise financeira, que expôs as graves falhas da metodologia utilizada para entender a economia como um todo. As premissas utilizadas nos modelos dominantes são criticadas, em particular, que os agentes econômicos são homogêneos e otimizadores, e que a economia é equilibrada. Este artigo explora uma abordagem interdisciplinar da modelagem macroeconômica com técnicas emprestadas de outras ciências e examina a modelagem baseada em agentes como um exemplo dessas técnicas. Os modelos baseados em agentes complementam as abordagens existentes e são adequados para responder a questões macroeconômicas em que complexidade, heterogeneidade, redes e heurísticas desempenham um papel importante.La modelación macroeconómica está bajo intenso escrutinio desde la gran crisis financiera, que dejó al descubierto los graves defectos de la metodología utilizada para entender la economía en su conjunto. Se critican los supuestos empleados en los modelos dominantes, en particular que los agentes económicos son homogéneos y optimizadores y que la economía se equilibra. Este escrito explora un enfoque interdisciplinario de modelación macroeconómica con técnicas tomadas de otras ciencias, y examina la modelación basada en agentes como ejemplo de esas técnicas. Los modelos basados en agentes complementan los enfoques existentes y son adecuados para responder preguntas macroeconómicas donde la complejidad, la heterogeneidad, las redes y las heurísticas cumplen un papel importante

Educational success and adult health : findings from the Chicago longitudinal study

Growing evidence indicates that education is associated with health, yet we lack knowledge about the specific educational experiences influencing health trajectories. This study examines the role school factors play in the emergence of poor young adult health outcomes for a low-income, minority sample. The following research questions are addressed. First, what are the education-based predictors of daily tobacco smoking, frequent substance use, depression, and no health insurance coverage? Second, do later-occurring school factors explain the association between earlier school measures and the outcomes and, if so, what pathways account for this mediation effect? Data were derived from the Chicago Longitudinal Study, an investigation of a cohort of 1,539 individuals, born around 1980, who attended kindergarten programs in the Chicago Public Schools. Participants were followed prospectively from early childhood through age 24, and study measures were created from various data sources and multiple assessment waves. Findings from probit hierarchical regressions with controls for early sociodemographic covariates indicated that elementary school socioemotional classroom adjustment and high school completion were significantly and negatively associated with all four study outcomes. Participation in the Chicago Child Parent Center preschool program predicted lower rates of both daily tobacco smoking and no health insurance coverage (p < .05). Middle school reading achievement was inversely related to depression (p < .01), while middle school frustration tolerance was inversely associated with daily tobacco smoking and frequent drug use (p < .05). Also, negatively linked to frequent drug use was a high school measure of students’ expectation to attend college (p < .01). In nearly all cases, later-occurring school factors fully mediated significant associations between earlier ones and the outcomes. Patterns of mediation were explored along with implications of results