Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time: the availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19

The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, as well as governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat

Low-level viraemia, measured as viraemia copy-years, as a prognostic factor for medium–long-term all-cause mortality: a MASTER cohort study

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An application of Bayesian networks for the optimization of a bridge layout

Abstract: Advantages in the adoption of integrated systems on a ship\u2019s bridge are quantified with respect to a more traditional bridge layout. The study is performed by modelling the causation factor for a ship-to-ship collision scenario. The assessment is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the time required to the officer on the watch (OOW) to complete a foreseen procedure aimed at avoiding a collision with another ship. The time needed to identify and agree the evasive manoeuvre with the second ship is evaluated for the two layouts, considering also a probabilistic occurrence of disturbances distracting and delaying the OOW during the procedure. Bayesian networks are employed to model the scenario. A general increment of the reactivity of the OOW in the integrated bridge is seen, represented by a shorter time to complete the procedure and by a reduced probability of being interrupted. The overall effect is an increase in the time available to put into practice the manoeuvre itself and, eventually, to avoid the collision. Keywords: integrated bridge systems, collision causation factors, Bayesian network

Association between exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls and risk of hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Experimental and epidemiological studies have suggested an association between exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), ubiquitous environmental toxic compounds, and the risk of hypertension. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies of the association between PCB exposure and the risk of hypertension. Studies were identified by searching PubMed, Embase and Web of Science and by reviewing reference lists. Study-specific risk estimates comparing the highest versus lowest quantile of PCB distribution were combined using random-effects models. We identified 10 cross-sectional studies, 6 cohort studies, and 1 nested case-control study. A pooled excess risk of hypertension was found for total PCBs (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.28–2.26), dioxin-like (DL)-PCBs (OR 1.46, 1.19–1.79), but not for non-dioxin like (NDL)-PCBs (OR 1.19, 0.81–1.73) comparing the highest with the lowest quartile of the distribution. According to a dose-response meta-analysis, a linear dose-effect relationship was found for total PCBs [OR 2.23 (95% CI: 1.59–3.14) for 1000 ng PCB/g lipid increase]. This positive association remained when stratifying the analyses by study design (cohort vs cross-sectional studies) and population (general population vs high exposed workers/residents). Among single PCB congeners, DL-PCB 105 and 118, and non-DL-PCB138 and 153 were related to hypertension. In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggests that exposure to PCBs, particularly to DL-PCBs, may be a risk factor for hypertension, independently of other risk factors

Factors associated with immunosenescence during early adulthood in HIV-infected patients after durable efficient combination antiretroviral therapy

Perinatally HIV-infected patients face the consequences of both chronic infection effects per se and long-term combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on immunosenescence. Aims of our study were to evaluate which factors independently contribute to immunosenescence in HIV-infected young adults with a very different HIV infection duration (perinatally HIV-infected young individuals -pHIVy- and age-matched non perinatally HIV-infected youths –npHIVy), after durable efficient cART. We considered low thymic and bone marrow output, respectively evaluated by quantifying T-cell receptor excision circles (TRECs), K-deleting recombination excision circles (KRECs), and shorter telomeres lenght (TL) as surrogate biomarkers of immunosenescence. Twenty-one pHIVy and 19 npHIVy (with a mean HIV duration of 3–8 years) were included; mean age was 27 years for both groups. Immunosenescence biomarkers were comparable between pHIVy and npHIVy (despite longer HIV-infection, higher frequency of AIDS events, past cART-free periods and concomitant chronic viral infections in pHIVy). At the multivariate analysis, CD4+ was the only variable independently associated with TRECs and TL. Our data suggest that a good level of thymic activity can compensate the deleterious effects of past periods without cART, if HIV replication is suppressed for a sufficient time