Reliability growth during a development testing program

Binomial and trinomial mathematical models for reliability growth studies - statistical analysis of system failure

Radiative Efficiencies of Continuously Powered Blast Waves

We use general arguments to show that a continuously powered radiative blast wave can behave self similarly if the energy injection and radiation mechanisms are self similar. In that case, the power-law indices of the blast wave evolution are set by only one of the two constituent physical mechanisms. If the luminosity of the energy source drops fast enough, the radiation mechanisms set the power-law indices, otherwise, they are set by the behavior of the energy source itself. We obtain self similar solutions for the Newtonian and the ultra-relativistic limits. Both limits behave self similarly if we assume that the central source supplies energy in the form of a hot wind, and that the radiative mechanism is the semi-radiative mechanism of Cohen, Piran & Sari (1998). We calculate the instantaneous radiative efficiencies for both limits and find that a relativistic blast wave has a higher efficiency than a Newtonian one. The instantaneous radiative efficiency depends strongly on the hydrodynamics and cannot be approximated by an estimate of local microscopic radiative efficiencies, since a fraction of the injected energy is deposited in shocked matter. These solutions can be used to calculate Gamma Ray Bursts afterglows, for cases in which the energy is not supplied instantaneously.Comment: 28 LaTeX pages, including 9 figures and 3 table

Ship-based nitric acid measurements in the Gulf of Maine during New England Air Quality Study 2002

Gas phase nitric acid (HNO3) was measured at 5-min resolution on board the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research vessel Ronald H. Brown during the second leg (29 July to 10 August) of the New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) 2002 cruise. A primary objective of the cruise was to improve understanding of the oxidation of NOx in, and removal of the oxidation products from, the polluted marine boundary layer east of northeastern North America. For the first 9 days of this leg the ship remained north of Cape Cod, and the cruise track did not extend much farther north than the New Hampshire-Maine border. During this period, HNO3 averaged 1.1 ppb and accounted for 19% of total reactive nitrogen oxides (measured NOy). On all days, peak HNO3 mixing ratios were observed in the early afternoon (average 2.3 ppb), at levels twofold to fourfold higher than the minima around sunrise and sunset. In these daytime peaks, HNO3/NOy averaged 28%. There were secondary nighttime peaks of HNO3 (0.9 ppb average), when HNO3 accounted for 16% of total reactive nitrogen oxides. This pronounced diurnal pattern confirms that production, and subsequent deposition, of HNO3 in the polluted marine boundary layer downwind of New England removes a significant fraction of the NOx exported to the atmosphere over the Gulf of Maine. Nitric acid was correlated with O3, particularly during the early afternoon interval when both molecules reached maximum mixing ratios (R2 = 0.66). The ozone production efficiency (OPE) inferred from the slope (10 ppb O3/ppb HNO3) was similar to the OPE of 9 estimated at the Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (AIRMAP) Thompson Farm station in coastal New Hampshire during the study period

Statistical Estimation Procedures for the ''burn-in'' Process

Statistical estimation procedures for identifying and eliminating poor quality or defective item

Interactions of a Light Hypersonic Jet with a Non-Uniform Interstellar Medium

We present three dimensional simulations of the interaction of a light hypersonic jet with an inhomogeneous thermal and turbulently supported disk in an elliptical galaxy. We model the jet as a light, supersonic non-relativistic flow with parameters selected to be consistent with a relativistic jet with kinetic power just above the FR1/FR2 break. We identify four generic phases in the evolution of such a jet with the inhomogeneous interstellar medium: 1) an initial ``flood and channel'' phase, where progress is characterized by high pressure gas finding changing weak points in the ISM, flowing through channels that form and re-form over time, 2) a spherical, energy-driven bubble phase, were the bubble is larger than the disk scale, but the jet remains fully disrupted close to the nucleus, 3) a rapid, jet break--out phase the where jet breaks free of the last dense clouds, becomes collimated and pierces the spherical bubble, and 4) a classical phase, the jet propagates in a momentum-dominated fashion leading to the classical jet + cocoon + bow-shock structure. Mass transport in the simulations is investigated, and we propose a model for the morphology and component proper motions in the well-studied Compact Symmetric Object 4C31.04.Comment: 66 pages, 22 figures, PDFLaTeX, aastex macros, graphicx and amssymb packages, Accepted, to be published 2007 ApJ

Synchrotron Emission from Hot Accretion Flows and the Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropy

Current estimates of number counts of radio sources in the frequency range where the most sensitive Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments are carried out significantly under-represent sources with strongly inverted spectra. Hot accretion flows around supermassive black holes in the nuclei of nearby galaxies are expected to produce inverted radio spectra by thermal synchrotron emission. We calculate the temperature fluctuations and power spectra of these sources in the Planck Surveyor 30 GHz energy channel, where their emission is expected to peak. We find that their potential contribution is generally comparable to the instrumental noise, and approaches the CMB anisotropy level at small angular scales. Forthcoming CMB missions, which will provide a large statistical sample of inverted-spectra sources, will be crucial for determining the distribution of hot accretion flows in nearby quiescent galactic nuclei. Detection of these sources in different frequency channels will help constrain their spectral characteristics, hence their physical properties.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Chemical and physical properties of bulk aerosols within four sectors observed during TRACE-P

Chemical and physical aerosol data collected on the DC-8 during TRACE-P were grouped into four sectors based on back trajectories. The four sectors represent long-range transport from the west (WSW), regional circulation over the western Pacific and Southeast Asia (SE Asia), polluted transport from northern Asia with substantial sea salt at low altitudes (NNW) and a substantial amount of dust (Channel). WSW has generally low mixing ratios at both middle and high altitudes, with the bulk of the aerosol mass due to non-sea-salt water-soluble inorganic species. Low altitude SE Asia also has low mean mixing ratios in general, with the majority of the aerosol mass comprised of non-sea-salts, however, soot is also relatively important in this region. NNW had the highest mean sea salt mixing ratios, with the aerosol mass at low altitudes (\u3c2 km) evenly divided between sea salts, non-sea-salts, and dust. The highest mean mixing ratios of water-soluble ions and soot were observed at the lowest altitudes (\u3c2 km) in the Channel sector. The bulk of the aerosol mass exported from Asia emanates from Channel at both low and midaltitudes, due to the prevalence of dust compared to other sectors. Number densities show enhanced fine particles for Channel and NNW, while their volume distributions are enhanced due to sea salt and dust. Low-altitude Channel exhibits the highest condensation nuclei (CN) number densities along with enhanced scattering coefficients, compared to the other sectors. At midaltitudes (2–7 km), low mean CN number densities coupled with a high proportion of nonvolatile particles (≥65%) observed in polluted sectors (Channel and NNW) are attributed to wet scavenging which removes hygroscopic CN particles. Low single scatter albedo in SE Asia reflects enhanced soot

Warped discs and the directional stability of jets in Active Galactic Nuclei

Warped accretion discs in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) exert a torque on the black hole that tends to align the rotation axis with the angular momentum of the outer disc. We compute the magnitude of this torque by solving numerically for the steady state shape of the warped disc, and verify that the analytic solution of Scheuer and Feiler (1996) provides an excellent approximation. We generalise these results for discs with strong warps and arbitrary surface density profiles, and calculate the timescale on which the black hole becomes aligned with the angular momentum in the outer disc. For massive holes and accretion rates of the order of the Eddington limit the alignment timescale is always short (less than a Myr), so that jets accelerated from the inner disc region provide a prompt tracer of the angular momentum of gas at large radii in the disc. Longer timescales are predicted for low luminosity systems, depending on the degree of anisotropy in the disc's hydrodynamic response to shear and warp, and for the final decay of modest warps at large radii in the disc that are potentially observable via VLBI. We discuss the implications of this for the inferred accretion history of those Active Galactic Nuclei whose jet directions appear to be stable over long timescales. The large energy deposition rate at modest disc radii during rapid realignment episodes should make such objects transiently bright at optical and infrared wavelengths.Comment: MNRAS, in press. Revised to match accepted version, with one new figure showing alignment timescale as a function of black hole mas