Industrial accidents triggered by natural hazards: an emerging risk issue

The threat of natural hazards impacting chemical facilities and infrastructures with the subsequent release of hazardous substances has been recognised as an emerging risk which is likely to be exacerbated by the ongoing climate change. Within the European FP7 project iNTeg-Risk, efforts are dedicated to address the problem of Natech accidents by trying to understand their underlying causes and by developing methodologies and tools to assess Natech risk. Special attention is thereby given to the risk of chemical accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning. This work outlines the ongoing efforts in the development of new concepts and tools for Natech hazard and vulnerability ranking, risk assessment, risk-based design, and emergency planning and early warning

Industrial accidents triggered by natural hazards: an emerging risk issue

Abstract. The threat of natural hazards impacting chemical facilities and infrastructures with the subsequent release of hazardous substances has been recognised as an emerging risk which is likely to be exacerbated by the ongoing climate change. Within the European FP7 project iNTeg-Risk, efforts are dedicated to address the problem of Natech accidents by trying to understand their underlying causes and by developing methodologies and tools to assess Natech risk. Special attention is thereby given to the risk of chemical accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning. This work outlines the ongoing efforts in the development of new concepts and tools for Natech hazard and vulnerability ranking, risk assessment, risk-based design, and emergency planning and early warning

Accident scenarios caused by lightning impact on atmospheric storage tanks

In recent years, severe natural events raised the concern for the so-called NaTech (natural-technological) accident scenarios: Technological accidents caused by the impact of a natural event on an industrial facility or infrastructure. Severe scenarios typical of the process industry, as fires, explosions, toxic releases, and water pollution were reported as the consequence of natural events in industrial areas. The historical analysis of accidental scenarios triggered by lightning shows that the impact of a lightning on an atmospheric storage tank might be the initiating event of a severe accident. The analysis of past accident evidences that several alternative damage mechanisms and accident scenarios may follow lightning impact. Although lightning hazard is well known and is usually considered in the risk analysis of chemical and process plants, well accepted quantitative procedures to assess the contribution of accidents triggered by lightning to industrial risk are still lacking. In particular, the approaches to the assessment of accident scenarios following lightning strike are mostly based on expert judgment. In the present study, a detailed methodology is presented for the assessment of quantified event trees following lightning impact on an atmospheric tank. Different damage mechanisms have been considered in order to assess the frequencies of loss of containment due to lightning strikes. The results were used in a case study to assess the overall risk due to lightning impact scenarios in typical lay-outs of tank farms of oil refineries. Copyright © 2013, AIDIC Servizi S.r.l

Direct neutron capture of 48Ca at kT = 52 keV

The neutron capture cross section of 48Ca was measured relative to the known gold cross section at kT = 52 keV using the fast cyclic activation technique. The experiment was performed at the Van-de-Graaff accelerator, Universitaet Tuebingen. The new experimental result is in good agreement with a calculation using the direct capture model. The 1/v behaviour of the capture cross section at thermonuclear energies is confirmed, and the adopted reaction rate which is based on several previous experimental investigations remains unchanged.Comment: 9 pages (uses Revtex), 2 postscript figures, accepted for publication as Brief Report in Phys. Rev.

Is there a 1970s syndrome? Analyzing structural breaks in the metabolism of industrial economies

In this paper we focus on long-term socio-ecological transitions from the agrarian to the industrial metabolic regime. Statistical analysis is used to identify structural breaks in the development of energy use in the second half of the 20th century. A stabilization of per capita energy and resource use in most high-income countries was reached in the early 1970s, after a period of accelerated growth of resource use since the end of World War II. Most empirical turns in trend coincide with the oil price crises of 1973 and 1979. This stabilization could offer lessons for a future sustainability transition

Direct Neutron Capture for Magic-Shell Nuclei

In neutron capture for magic--shell nuclei the direct reaction mechanism can be important and may even dominate. As an example we investigated the reaction $^{48}$Ca(n,$\gamma)^{49}$Ca for projectile energies below 250\,keV in a direct capture model using the folding procedure for optical and bound state potentials. The obtained theoretical cross sections are in agreement with the experimental data showing the dominance of the direct reaction mechanism in this case. The above method was also used to calculate the cross section for $^{50}$Ca(n,$\gamma)^{51}$Ca.Comment: REVTeX, 7 pages plus 3 uuencoded figures, the complete uuencoded postscript file is available at ftp://is1.kph.tuwien.ac.at/pub/ohu/calcium.u

Measurement of neutron capture on 48^{48}Ca at thermal and thermonuclear energies

At the Karlsruhe pulsed 3.75\,MV Van de Graaff accelerator the thermonuclear $^{48}$Ca(n,$\gamma$)$^{49}$Ca(8.72\,min) cross section was measured by the fast cyclic activation technique via the 3084.5\,keV $\gamma$-ray line of the $^{49}$Ca-decay. Samples of CaCO$_3$ enriched in $^{48}$Ca by 77.87\,\% were irradiated between two gold foils which served as capture standards. The capture cross-section was measured at the neutron energies 25, 151, 176, and 218\,keV, respectively. Additionally, the thermal capture cross-section was measured at the reactor BR1 in Mol, Belgium, via the prompt and decay $\gamma$-ray lines using the same target material. The $^{48}$Ca(n,$\gamma$)$^{49}$Ca cross-section in the thermonuclear and thermal energy range has been calculated using the direct-capture model combined with folding potentials. The potential strengths are adjusted to the scattering length and the binding energies of the final states in $^{49}$Ca. The small coherent elastic cross section of $^{48}$Ca+n is explained through the nuclear Ramsauer effect. Spectroscopic factors of $^{49}$Ca have been extracted from the thermal capture cross-section with better accuracy than from a recent (d,p) experiment. Within the uncertainties both results are in agreement. The non-resonant thermal and thermonuclear experimental data for this reaction can be reproduced using the direct-capture model. A possible interference with a resonant contribution is discussed. The neutron spectroscopic factors of $^{49}$Ca determined from shell-model calculations are compared with the values extracted from the experimental cross sections for $^{48}$Ca(d,p)$^{49}$Ca and $^{48}$Ca(n,$\gamma$)$^{49}$Ca.Comment: 15 pages (uses Revtex), 7 postscript figures (uses psfig), accepted for publication in PRC, uuencoded tex-files and postscript-files also available at ftp://is1.kph.tuwien.ac.at/pub/ohu/Ca.u

Dependence of direct neutron capture on nuclear-structure models

The prediction of cross sections for nuclei far off stability is crucial in the field of nuclear astrophysics. We calculate direct neutron capture on the even-even isotopes $^{124-145}$Sn and $^{208-238}$Pb with energy levels, masses, and nuclear density distributions taken from different nuclear-structure models. The utilized structure models are a Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov model, a relativistic mean field theory, and a macroscopic-microscopic model based on the finite-range droplet model and a folded-Yukawa single-particle potential. Due to the differences in the resulting neutron separation and level energies, the investigated models yield capture cross sections sometimes differing by orders of magnitude. This may also lead to differences in the predicted astrophysical r-process paths. Astrophysical implications are discussed.Comment: 25 pages including 12 figures, RevTeX, to appear in Phys. Rev.

A proposal for a workable analysis of Energy Return on Investment (EROI) in agroecosystems. Part I: Analytical approach

This paper presents a workable approach to the energy analysis of past and present agroecosystems aimed to contribute to their sustainability assessment. This analysis sees the agroecosystem as a set of energy loops between nature and society, and adopts a farm-operator standpoint at landscape level that involves setting specific system boundaries. This in turn entails a specific form to account for energy outputs as well as inputs. According to this conceptual approach, a clear distinction between Unharvested Phytomass, Land Produce and Final Produce is established, and also a sharp divide is adopted between the energy content of internal flows of Biomass Reused and external Societal Inputs when accounting for the amount of Total Inputs Consumed . Treating the conversion of solar radiation into local biomass as a gift of nature, enthalpy values of energy carriers are accounted for net Final Produce going outside as well as for Biomass Reused or Unharvested Phytomass , given that all these flows are evaluated from inside the agroecosystem. On the other hand, the external energy carriers are accounted for as embodied values by adding up direct and indirect energy carriers required to produce or deliver these Societal Inputs to the agroecosystem. The human Labour performed by the farm operators is treated as a special case of external input. It is accounted for the fraction of their energy intake devoted to perform agricultural work, by only using enthalpy or adding transport embodied values depending on the local or external origin of ingredients of the food basket. Following this line of reasoning we propose the definition of two different sets of agroecosystem’s Energy Returns On Energy Inputs (EROIs), depending on whether we use as numerator the Final Produce or the total phytomass harvested and unharvested included in the actual Net Primary Production. By comparing Final EROI with NPP act EROI we can obtain a proxy useful to assess whether the different paths taken by the energy throughputs may undermine or not biodiversity and soil fertility in agroecosystems. Then, by alternatively including or excluding Biomass Reused and External Inputs in the denominator, we split Final EROI into their respective energy returns to either internal or external inputs. This leads to a four interrelated EROIs whose meanings, shortcomings or ambiguities are examined respectively, in order to combine them all to draw the sociometabolic energy profiles of different sorts of agroecosystems along the socio-ecological transitions from traditional organic to industrial farm systems. The conceptual and quantitative relationships between the internal and external returns of Final EROI provide a method to decompose both dimensions in a way that clarifies their respective roles when comparing different agroecosystems, and reveals their capacity for increasing energy yields. This decomposition analysis also facilitates graphing their changing energy profiles through socio-ecological transitions along history. Finally, we suggest other related or derived indicators that can be useful for different purposes. With the bookkeeping proposed the energy analysis of farm systems is widened so as to highlight the role played by the biomass unharvested or internally reused in keeping the ecological services that biodiversity and soil fertility provide. This may also allow to test in agro-forest mosaics the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis long debated in ecology, by linking our energy analysis with landscape ecology metrics.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Design, construction and testing of a low carbon thin-shell concrete flooring system

Rapid global urbanisation and population growth is driving unprecedented levels of building construction, with the total worldwide floor area expected to almost double over the next 40 years. Since most of the structural material in a building exists within the floors, these present a significant opportunity for structural engineers to contribute to a more sustainable construction industry. This paper examines a novel flooring system of textile-reinforced concrete shells with a foamed concrete fill, which has the potential to halve the amount of materials in a building’s entire structure. A new design and geometry optimisation method is described, as well as the construction and testing of two prototypes; each 18mm thick, 2m in span and 200mm tall. These textile-reinforced concrete shells are unconventional in their low total depth, low reinforcement content and lack of rigid supports. Both were reinforced with AR-glass fibre textile and constructed using fine-grained concrete, however only one featured a foamed concrete fill. Each was tested to destruction under an asymmetric load. In both cases, a hinged collapse mechanism was formed rather than sudden catastrophic failure, with positive implications for safety and robustness. A non-linear finite element model was developed which replicated the observed behaviour well, including cracking patterns. Inaccuracies in geometry arising from the hand-made construction methods were measured and their structural impact was assessed and found to be small. The investigations confirm the strength, robustness and buildability of the structural system, and establish a reliable analysis method.This research is supported by the EPSRC Centre for Decarbonisation of the Built Environment (dCarb) [grant number EP/L016869/1], the Building Research Establishment Trust (BRE) and the Cambridge University Department of Engineering