Doubly robust Bayesian inference for non-stationary streaming data with β-divergences

We present the very first robust Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection algorithm through General Bayesian Inference (GBI) with β-divergences. The resulting inference procedure is doubly robust for both the predictive and the changepoint (CP) posterior, with linear time and constant space complexity. We provide a construction for exponential models and demonstrate it on the Bayesian Linear Regression model. In so doing, we make two additional contributions: Firstly, we make GBI scalable using Structural Variational approximations that are exact as β→0 . Secondly, we give a principled way of choosing the divergence parameter β by minimizing expected predictive loss on-line. We offer the state of the art and improve the False Discovery Rate of CP S by more than 80% on real world data

Detection and identification of mirror-image letter pairs in central and peripheral vision

AbstractReading performance is poorer in the peripheral than in the central visual field, even after size-scaling to compensate for differences in visual acuity at the different eccentricities. Since several studies have indicated that the peripheral retina is deficient with respect to spatial phase discrimination, we compared the psychometric functions for detection (D) and identification (I) of size-scaled, mirror-symmetric letters (i.e. letters differing in the phase spectra of their odd symmetric components) at three inferior field eccentricities (0, 4, and 7.5 deg) using a two-alternative, temporal, forced-choice procedure and retinal image stabilization to control retinal locus. Each subject's data were fit with Weibull functions and tested for goodness-of-fit under several hypotheses. This analysis revealed that while the psychometric functions were of constant shape across eccentricity for the respective tasks, they showed statistically significant variations in the D/I threshold ratios. However, these variations were so small that poorer reading outside the fovea is unlikely to be due to reduced letter discriminability that might occur secondary to a loss of peripheral field phase sensitivity

Greenhouse gas production in degrading ice-rich permafrost deposits in northeastern Siberia

Permafrost deposits have been a sink for atmospheric carbon for millennia. Thaw-erosional processes, however, can lead to rapid degradation of ice-rich permafrost and the release of substantial amounts of organic carbon (OC). The amount of the OC stored in these deposits and their potential to be microbially decomposed to the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) depends on climatic and environmental conditions during deposition and the decomposition history before incorporation into the permafrost. Here, we examine potential greenhouse gas production in degrading ice-rich permafrost deposits from three locations in the northeast Siberian Laptev Sea region. The deposits span a period of about 55 kyr from the last glacial period and Holocene interglacial. Samples from all three locations were incubated under aerobic and anaerobic conditions for 134 days at 4 °C. Greenhouse gas production was generally higher in deposits from glacial periods, where 0.2–6.1% of the initially available OC was decomposed to CO2. In contrast, only 0.1–4.0% of initial OC were decomposed in permafrost deposits from the Holocene and the late glacial transition. Within the deposits from the Kargin interstadial period (Marine Isotope Stage 3), local depositional environments, especially soil moisture, also affected the preservation of OC. Sediments deposited under wet conditions contained more labile OC and thus produced more greenhouse gases than sediments deposited under drier conditions. To assess the greenhouse gas production potentials over longer periods, deposits from two locations were incubated for a total of 785 days. However, more than 50% of total CO2 production over 785 days occurred within the first 134 days under aerobic conditions while even 80% were produced over the same period under anaerobic conditions, which emphasizes the non-linearity of the OC decomposition processes. Methanogenesis was generally observed in active layer samples but only sporadically in permafrost samples and was several orders of magnitude smaller than CO2 production

Passive phloem loading and long-distance transport in a synthetic tree-on-a-chip

Vascular plants rely on differences of osmotic pressure to export sugars from regions of synthesis (mature leaves) to sugar sinks (roots, fruits). In this process, known as M\"unch pressure flow, the loading of sugars from photosynthetic cells to the export conduit (the phloem) is crucial, as it sets the pressure head necessary to power long-distance transport. Whereas most herbaceous plants use active mechanisms to increase phloem concentration above that of the photosynthetic cells, in most tree species, for which transport distances are largest, loading seems to occur via passive symplastic diffusion from the mesophyll to the phloem. Here, we use a synthetic microfluidic model of a passive loader to explore the nonlinear dynamics that arise during export and determine the ability of passive loading to drive long-distance transport. We first demonstrate that in our device, phloem concentration is set by the balance between the resistances to diffusive loading from the source and convective export through the phloem. Convection-limited export corresponds to classical models of M\"unch transport, where phloem concentration is close to that of the source; in contrast, diffusion-limited export leads to small phloem concentrations and weak scaling of flow rates with the hydraulic resistance. We then show that the effective regime of convection-limited export is predominant in plants with large transport resistances and low xylem pressures. Moreover, hydrostatic pressures developed in our synthetic passive loader can reach botanically relevant values as high as 10 bars. We conclude that passive loading is sufficient to drive long-distance transport in large plants, and that trees are well suited to take full advantage of passive phloem loading strategies

Cooperative dynamics in charge-ordered state of alpha-(BEDT-TTF)2I3

Electric-field-dependent pulse measurements are reported in the charge-ordered state of alpha-(BEDT-TTF)2I3. At low electric fields up to about 50 V/cm only negligible deviations from Ohmic behavior can be identified with no threshold field. At larger electric fields and up to about 100 V/cm a reproducible negative differential resistance is observed with a significant change in shape of the measured resistivity in time. These changes critically depend whether constant voltage or constant current is applied to the single crystal. At high enough electric fields the resistance displays a dramatic drop down to metallic values and relaxes subsequently in a single-exponential manner to its low-field steady-state value. We argue that such an electric-field induced negative differential resistance and switching to transient states are fingerprints of cooperative domain-wall dynamics inherent to two-dimensional bond-charge density wave with ferroelectric-like nature.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, resubmitted to Phys. Rev.

Using diffusion tractography to predict cortical connection strength and distance: a quantitative comparison with tracers in the monkey

Tractography based on diffusion MRI offers the promise of characterizing many aspects of long-distance connectivity in the brain, but requires quantitative validation to assess its strengths and limitations. Here, we evaluate tractography's ability to estimate the presence and strength of connections between areas of macaque neocortex by comparing its results with published data from retrograde tracer injections. Probabilistic tractography was performed on high-quality postmortem diffusion imaging scans from two Old World monkey brains. Tractography connection weights were estimated using a fractional scaling method based on normalized streamline density. We found a correlation between log-transformed tractography and tracer connection weights of r = 0.59, twice that reported in a recent study on the macaque. Using a novel method to estimate interareal connection lengths from tractography streamlines, we regressed out the distance dependence of connection strength and found that the correlation between tractography and tracers remains positive, albeit substantially reduced. Altogether, these observations provide a valuable, data-driven perspective on both the strengths and limitations of tractography for analyzing interareal corticocortical connectivity in nonhuman primates and a framework for assessing future tractography methodological refinements objectively

Deep Yedoma permafrost: A synthesis of depositional characteristics and carbon vulnerability

Permafrost is a distinct feature of the terrestrial Arctic and is vulnerable to climate warming. Permafrost degrades in different ways, including deepening of a seasonally unfrozen surface and localized but rapid development of deep thaw features. Pleistocene ice-rich permafrost with syngenetic ice-wedges, termed Yedoma deposits, are widespread in Siberia, Alaska, and Yukon, Canada and may be especially prone to rapid-thaw processes. Freeze-locked organic matter in such deposits can be re-mobilized on short time-scales and contribute to a carbon cycle climate feedback. Here we synthesize the characteristics and vulnerability of Yedoma deposits by synthesizing studies on the Yedoma origin and the associated organic carbon pool. We suggest that Yedoma deposits accumulated under periglacial weathering, transport, and deposition dynamics in non-glaciated regions during the late Pleistocene until the beginning of late glacial warming. The deposits formed due to a combination of aeolian, colluvial, nival, and alluvial deposition and simultaneous ground ice accumulation. We found up to 130 gigatons organic carbon in Yedoma, parts of which are well-preserved and available for fast decomposition after thaw. Based on incubation experiments, up to 10% of the Yedoma carbon is considered especially decomposable and may be released upon thaw. The substantial amount of ground ice in Yedoma makes it highly vulnerable to disturbances such as thermokarst and thermo-erosion processes. Mobilization of permafrost carbon is expected to increase under future climate warming. Our synthesis results underline the need of accounting for Yedoma carbon stocks in next generation Earth-System-Models for a more complete representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback

A phase I study of the safety and pharmacokinetics of the histone deacetylase inhibitor belinostat administered in combination with carboplatin and/or paclitaxel in patients with solid tumours

BACKGROUND: This phase I study assessed the maximum tolerated dose, dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) and pharmacokinetics of belinostat with carboplatin and paclitaxel and the anti-tumour activity of the combination in solid tumours. METHODS: Cohorts of three to six patients were treated with escalating doses of belinostat administered intravenously once daily, days 1-5 q21 days; on day 3, carboplatin (area under the curve (AUC) 5) and/or paclitaxel (175 mgm(-2)) were administered 2-3 h after the end of the belinostat infusion. RESULTS: In all 23 patients received 600-1000 mgm(-2) per day of belinostat with carboplatin and/or paclitaxel. No DLT was observed. The maximal administered dose of belinostat was 1000 mgm(-2) per day for days 1-5, with paclitaxel (175 mgm-2) and carboplatin AUC 5 administered on day 3. Grade III/IV adverse events were (n; %): leucopenia (5; 22%), neutropenia (7; 30%), thrombocytopenia (3; 13%) anaemia (1; 4%), peripheral sensory neuropathy (2; 9%), fatigue (1; 4%), vomiting (1; 4%) and myalgia (1; 4%). The pharmacokinetics of belinostat, paclitaxel and carboplatin were unaltered by the concurrent administration. There were two partial responses (one rectal cancer and one pancreatic cancer). A third patient (mixed mullerian tumour of ovarian origin) showed a complete CA-125 response. In addition, six patients showed a stable disease lasting >= 6 months. CONCLUSION: The combination was well tolerated, with no evidence of pharmacokinetic interaction. Further evaluation of anti-tumour activity is warranted. British Journal of Cancer (2010) 103, 12-17. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6605726 www.bjcancer.com Published online 15 June 2010 (C) 2010 Cancer Research U

Microbial methane cycling in sediments of Arctic thermokarst lagoons

Thermokarst lagoons represent the transition state from a freshwater lacustrine to a marine environment, and receive little attention regarding their role for greenhouse gas production and release in Arctic permafrost landscapes. We studied the fate of methane (CH4) in sediments of a thermokarst lagoon in comparison to two thermokarst lakes on the Bykovsky Peninsula in northeastern Siberia through the analysis of sediment CH4 concentrations and isotopic signature, methane-cycling microbial taxa, sediment geochemistry, lipid biomarkers, and network analysis. We assessed how differences in geochemistry between thermokarst lakes and thermokarst lagoons, caused by the infiltration of sulfate-rich marine water, altered the microbial methane-cycling community. Anaerobic sulfate-reducing ANME-2a/2b methanotrophs dominated the sulfate-rich sediments of the lagoon despite its known seasonal alternation between brackish and freshwater inflow and low sulfate concentrations compared to the usual marine ANME habitat. Non-competitive methylotrophic methanogens dominated the methanogenic community of the lakes and the lagoon, independent of differences in porewater chemistry and depth. This potentially contributed to the high CH4 concentrations observed in all sulfate-poor sediments. CH4 concentrations in the freshwater-influenced sediments averaged 1.34 ± 0.98 μmol g−1, with highly depleted δ13C-CH4 values ranging from −89‰ to −70‰. In contrast, the sulfate-affected upper 300 cm of the lagoon exhibited low average CH4 concentrations of 0.011 ± 0.005 μmol g−1 with comparatively enriched δ13C-CH4 values of −54‰ to −37‰ pointing to substantial methane oxidation. Our study shows that lagoon formation specifically supports methane oxidizers and methane oxidation through changes in pore water chemistry, especially sulfate, while methanogens are similar to lake conditions