533 research outputs found
Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness
We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings
The Clumping Transition in Niche Competition: a Robust Critical Phenomenon
We show analytically and numerically that the appearance of lumps and gaps in
the distribution of n competing species along a niche axis is a robust
phenomenon whenever the finiteness of the niche space is taken into account. In
this case depending if the niche width of the species is above or
below a threshold , which for large n coincides with 2/n, there are
two different regimes. For the lumpy pattern emerges
directly from the dominant eigenvector of the competition matrix because its
corresponding eigenvalue becomes negative. For the lumpy
pattern disappears. Furthermore, this clumping transition exhibits critical
slowing down as is approached from above. We also find that the number
of lumps of species vs. displays a stair-step structure. The positions
of these steps are distributed according to a power-law. It is thus
straightforward to predict the number of groups that can be packed along a
niche axis and it coincides with field measurements for a wide range of the
model parameters.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures;
http://iopscience.iop.org/1742-5468/2010/05/P0500
The impact of loco-regional recurrences on metastatic progression in early-stage breast cancer: a multistate model
To study whether the effects of prognostic factors associated with the occurrence of distant metastases (DM) at primary diagnosis change after the incidence of loco-regional recurrences (LRR) among women treated for invasive stage I or II breast cancer. The study population consisted of 3,601 women, enrolled in EORTC trials 10801, 10854, or 10902 treated for early-stage breast cancer. Data were analysed in a multivariate, multistate model by using multivariate Cox regression models, including a state-dependent covariate. The presence of a LRR in itself is a significant prognostic risk factor (HR: 3.64; 95%-CI: 2.02-6.5) for the occurrence of DM. Main prognostic risk factors for a DM are young age at diagnosis (</=40: HR: 1.79; 95%-CI: 1.28-2.51), larger tumour size (HR: 1.58; 95%-CI: 1.35-1.84) and node positivity (HR: 2.00; 95%-CI: 1.74-2.30). Adjuvant chemotherapy is protective for a DM (HR: 0.66; 95%-CI: 0.55-0.80). After the occurrence of a LRR the latter protective effect has disappeared (P = 0.009). The presence of LRR in itself is a significant risk factor for DM. For patients who are at risk of developing LRR, effective local control should be the main target of therapy
Ecosystem engineering by seagrasses interacts with grazing to shape an intertidal landscape
Self-facilitation through ecosystem engineering (i.e., organism modification of the abiotic environment) and consumer-resource interactions are both major determinants of spatial patchiness in ecosystems. However, interactive effects of these two mechanisms on spatial complexity have not been extensively studied. We investigated the mechanisms underlying a spatial mosaic of low-tide exposed hummocks and waterlogged hollows on an intertidal mudflat in the Wadden Sea dominated by the seagrass Zostera noltii. A combination of field measurements, an experiment and a spatially explicit model indicated that the mosaic resulted from localized sediment accretion by seagrass followed by selective waterfowl grazing. Hollows were bare in winter, but were rapidly colonized by seagrass during the growth season. Colonized hollows were heavily grazed by brent geese and widgeon in autumn, converting these patches to a bare state again and disrupting sediment accretion by seagrass. In contrast, hummocks were covered by seagrass throughout the year and were rarely grazed, most likely because the waterfowl were not able to employ their preferred but water requiring feeding strategy ('dabbling') here. Our study exemplifies that interactions between ecosystem engineering by a foundation species (seagrass) and consumption (waterfowl grazing) can increase spatial complexity at the landscape leve
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Quantifying resilience of humans and other animals
All life requires the capacity to recover from challenges that are as inevitable as they are unpredictable. Understanding this resilience is essential for managing the health of humans and their livestock. It has long been difficult to quantify resilience directly, forcing practitioners to rely on indirect static indicators of health. However, measurements from wearable electronics and other sources now allow us to analyze the dynamics of physiology and behavior with unsurpassed resolution. The resulting flood of data coincides with the emergence of novel analytical tools for estimating resilience from the pattern of micro-recoveries observed in natural time series. Such dynamic indicators of resilience (DIORs) may be used to monitor the risk of systemic failure across systems ranging from organs to entire organisms. These tools invite a fundamental rethink of our approach to the adaptive management of health and resilience
Regularity Properties and Pathologies of Position-Space Renormalization-Group Transformations
We reconsider the conceptual foundations of the renormalization-group (RG)
formalism, and prove some rigorous theorems on the regularity properties and
possible pathologies of the RG map. Regarding regularity, we show that the RG
map, defined on a suitable space of interactions (= formal Hamiltonians), is
always single-valued and Lipschitz continuous on its domain of definition. This
rules out a recently proposed scenario for the RG description of first-order
phase transitions. On the pathological side, we make rigorous some arguments of
Griffiths, Pearce and Israel, and prove in several cases that the renormalized
measure is not a Gibbs measure for any reasonable interaction. This means that
the RG map is ill-defined, and that the conventional RG description of
first-order phase transitions is not universally valid. For decimation or
Kadanoff transformations applied to the Ising model in dimension ,
these pathologies occur in a full neighborhood of the low-temperature part of the first-order
phase-transition surface. For block-averaging transformations applied to the
Ising model in dimension , the pathologies occur at low temperatures
for arbitrary magnetic-field strength. Pathologies may also occur in the
critical region for Ising models in dimension . We discuss in detail
the distinction between Gibbsian and non-Gibbsian measures, and give a rather
complete catalogue of the known examples. Finally, we discuss the heuristic and
numerical evidence on RG pathologies in the light of our rigorous theorems.Comment: 273 pages including 14 figures, Postscript, See also
ftp.scri.fsu.edu:hep-lat/papers/9210/9210032.ps.
Positive Feedbacks in Seagrass Ecosystems – Evidence from Large-Scale Empirical Data
Positive feedbacks cause a nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change and may even cause bistability. Even though the importance of feedback mechanisms has been demonstrated for many types of ecosystems, their identification and quantification is still difficult. Here, we investigated whether positive feedbacks between seagrasses and light conditions are likely in seagrass ecosystems dominated by the temperate seagrass Zostera marina. We applied a combination of multiple linear regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) on a dataset containing 83 sites scattered across Western Europe. Results confirmed that a positive feedback between sediment conditions, light conditions and seagrass density is likely to exist in seagrass ecosystems. This feedback indicated that seagrasses are able to trap and stabilize suspended sediments, which in turn improves water clarity and seagrass growth conditions. Furthermore, our analyses demonstrated that effects of eutrophication on light conditions, as indicated by surface water total nitrogen, were on average at least as important as sediment conditions. This suggests that in general, eutrophication might be the most important factor controlling seagrasses in sheltered estuaries, while the seagrass-sediment-light feedback is a dominant mechanism in more exposed areas. Our study demonstrates the potentials of SEM to identify and quantify positive feedbacks mechanisms for ecosystems and other complex systems
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