Categorical Updating in a Bayesian Propensity Problem

We present three experiments using a novel problem in which participants update their estimates of propensities when faced with an uncertain new instance. We examine this using two different causal structures (common cause/common effect) and two different scenarios (agent-based/mechanical). In the first, participants must update their estimate of the propensity for two warring nations to successfully explode missiles after being told of a new explosion on the border between both nations. In the second, participants must update their estimate of the accuracy of two early warning tests for cancer when they produce conflicting reports about a patient. Across both experiments, we find two modal responses, representing around one-third of participants each. In the first, "Categorical" response, participants update propensity estimates as if they were certain about the single event, for example, certain that one of the nations was responsible for the latest explosion, or certain about which of the two tests is correct. In the second, "No change" response, participants make no update to their propensity estimates at all. Across the three experiments, the theory is developed and tested that these two responses in fact have a single representation of the problem: because the actual outcome is binary (only one of the nations could have launched the missile; the patient either has cancer or not), these participants believe it is incorrect to update propensities in a graded manner. They therefore operate on a "certainty threshold" basis, whereby, if they are certain enough about the single event, they will make the "Categorical" response, and if they are below this threshold, they will make the "No change" response. Ramifications are considered for the "categorical" response in particular, as this approach produces a positive-feedback dynamic similar to that seen in the belief polarization/confirmation bias literature

Does a modified STarT Back Tool predict outcome with a broader group of musculoskeletal patients than back pain? A secondary analysis of cohort data.

OBJECTIVES: The STarT Back Tool has good predictive performance for non-specific low back pain in primary care. We therefore aimed to investigate whether a modified STarT Back Tool predicted outcome with a broader group of musculoskeletal patients, and assessed the consequences of using existing risk-group cut-points across different pain regions. SETTING: Secondary analysis of prospective data from 2 cohorts: (1) outpatient musculoskeletal physiotherapy services (PhysioDirect trial n=1887) and (2) musculoskeletal primary-secondary care interface services (SAMBA study n=1082). PARTICIPANTS: Patients with back, neck, upper limb, lower limb or multisite pain with a completed modified STarT Back Tool (baseline) and 6-month physical health outcome (Short Form 36 (SF-36)). OUTCOMES: Area under the receiving operator curve (AUCs) tested discriminative abilities of the tool's baseline score for identifying poor 6-month outcome (SF-36 lower tertile Physical Component Score). Risk-group cut-points were tested using sensitivity and specificity for identifying poor outcome using (1) Youden's J statistic and (2) a clinically determined rule that specificity should not fall below 0.7 (false-positive rate <30%). RESULTS: In PhysioDirect and SAMBA, poor 6-month physical health was 18.5% and 28.2%, respectively. Modified STarT Back Tool score AUCs for predicting outcome in back pain were 0.72 and 0.79, neck 0.82 and 0.88, upper limb 0.79 and 0.86, lower limb 0.77 and 0.83, and multisite pain 0.83 and 0.82 in PhysioDirect and SAMBA, respectively. Differences between pain region AUCs were non-significant. Optimal cut-points to discriminate low-risk and medium-risk/high-risk groups depended on pain region and clinical services. CONCLUSIONS: A modified STarT Back Tool similarly predicts 6-month physical health outcome across 5 musculoskeletal pain regions. However, the use of consistent risk-group cut-points was not possible and resulted in poor sensitivity (too many with long-term disability being missed) or specificity (too many with good outcome inaccurately classified as 'at risk') for some pain regions. The draft tool is now being refined and validated within a new programme of research for a broader musculoskeletal population. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN55666618; Post results

Management of shoulder pain by UK general practitioners (GPs): a national survey

OBJECTIVES: Studies in Canada, the USA and Australia suggested low confidence among general practitioners (GPs) in diagnosing and managing shoulder pain, with frequent use of investigations. There are no comparable studies in the UK; our objective was to describe the diagnosis and management of shoulder pain by GPs in the UK. METHODS: A national survey of a random sample of 5000 UK GPs collected data on shoulder pain diagnosis and management using two clinical vignettes that described primary care presentations with rotator cuff tendinopathy (RCT) and adhesive capsulitis (AdhC). RESULTS: Seven hundred and fourteen (14.7%) responses were received. 56% and 83% of GPs were confident in their diagnosis of RCT and AdhC, respectively, and a wide range of investigations and management options were reported. For the RCT presentation, plain radiographs of the shoulder were most common (60%), followed by blood tests (42%) and ultrasound scans (USS) (38%). 19% of those who recommended a radiograph and 76% of those who recommended a USS did so 'to confirm the diagnosis'. For the AdhC presentation, the most common investigations were blood tests (60%), plain shoulder radiographs (58%) and USS (31%). More than two-thirds of those recommending a USS did so 'to confirm the diagnosis'. The most commonly recommended treatment for both presentations was physiotherapy (RCT 77%, AdhC 71%) followed by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (RCT 58%, AdhC 74%). 17% opted to refer the RCT to secondary care (most often musculoskeletal interface service), compared with 31% for the AdhC. CONCLUSIONS: This survey of GPs in the UK highlights reliance on radiographs and blood tests in the management of common shoulder pain presentations. GPs report referring more than 7 out of 10 patients with RCT and AdhC to physiotherapists. These findings need to be viewed in the context of low response to the survey and, therefore, potential non-response bias

A review of implant provision for hypodontia patients within a Scottish referral centre

Background: Implant treatment to replace congenitally missing teeth often involves multidisciplinary input in a secondary care environment. High quality patient care requires an in-depth knowledge of treatment requirements. Aim: This service review aimed to determine treatment needs, efficiency of service and outcomes achieved in hypodontia patients. It also aimed to determine any specific difficulties encountered in service provision, and suggest methods to overcome these. Methods: Hypodontia patients in the Unit of Periodontics of the Scottish referral centre under consideration, who had implant placement and fixed restoration, or review completed over a 31 month period, were included. A standardised data collection form was developed and completed with reference to the patient's clinical record. Information was collected with regard to: the indication for implant treatment and its extent; the need for, complexity and duration of orthodontic treatment; the need for bone grafting and the techniques employed and indicators of implant success. Conclusion: Implant survival and success rates were high for those patients reviewed. Incidence of biological complications compared very favourably with the literature

Keele Aches and Pains Study Protocol: validity, acceptability and feasibility of the Keele STarT MSK Tool for subgrouping musculoskeletal patients in primary care

Musculoskeletal conditions represent a considerable burden worldwide, and are predominantly managed in primary care. Evidence suggests that many musculoskeletal conditions share similar prognostic factors. Systematically assessing patient’s prognosis, and matching treatments based on prognostic subgroups (stratified care), has been shown to be clinically and cost effective. This study (Keele Aches and Pains Study: KAPS) aims to refine and examine the validity of a brief questionnaire (Keele STarT MSK Tool), designed to enable risk-stratification of primary care patients with the five most common musculoskeletal pain presentations. We will also describe the subgroups of patients, and explore the acceptability and feasibility of using the tool, and how the tool is best implemented in clinical practice. The study design is mixed methods: a prospective, quantitative observational cohort study with a linked qualitative focus group and interview study. Patients who have consulted their General Practitioner or Healthcare Practitioner (GP/HCP) about a relevant musculoskeletal condition will be recruited from General practice. Participating patients will complete a baseline questionnaire (shortly after consultation), plus questionnaires 2 and 6 months later. A sub-sample of patients, along with participating GPs and HCPs, will be invited to take part in qualitative focus groups and interviews. The Keele STarT MSK Tool will be refined based on face, discriminant, construct and predictive validity at baseline and 2 months, and validated using data from 6 month follow-up. Patient and clinician perspectives about using the tool will be explored. This study will provide a validated prognostic tool (the Keele STarT MSK Tool) with established cut-points to stratify patients with the five most common musculoskeletal presentations into low, medium and high risk subgroups. The qualitative analysis of patient and healthcare perspectives will inform how to embed the tool into clinical practice using established general practice IT systems and clinician support packages

Neonicotinoid pesticide limits improvement in buzz pollination by bumblebees

Neonicotinoid pesticides have been linked to global declines of beneficial insects such as bumblebees. Exposure to trace levels of these chemicals causes sub-lethal effects, such as reduced learning and foraging efficiency. Complex behaviours may be particularly vulnerable to the neurotoxic effects of neonicotinoids. Such behaviours may include buzz pollination (sonication), in which pollinators, usually bees, use innate and learned behaviours to generate high-frequency vibrations to release pollen from flowers with specialised anther morphologies. This study assesses the effect of field-realistic, chronic exposure to the widely-used neonicotinoid thiamethoxam on the development of sonication buzz characteristics over time, as well as the collection of pollen from buzz-pollinated flowers. We found that the pollen collection of exposed bees improved less with increasing experience than that of unexposed bees, with exposed bees collecting between 47% and 56% less pollen by the end of 10 trials. We also found evidence of two distinct strategies for maximising pollen collection: (1) extensions to the duration of individual buzzes and (2) extensions of the overall time spent buzzing. We find new complexities in buzz pollination, and conclude that the impacts of field-realistic exposure to a neonicotinoid pesticide may seriously compromise this important ecosystem service

Stratified primary care versus non-stratified care for musculoskeletal pain: findings from the STarT MSK feasibility and pilot cluster randomized controlled trial

Background: Musculoskeletal (MSK) pain from the five most common presentations to primary care (back, neck, shoulder, knee or multi-site pain), where the majority of patients are managed, is a costly global health challenge. At present, first-line decisionmaking is based on clinical reasoning and stratified models of care have only been tested in patients with low back pain. We therefore, examined the feasibility of; a) a future definitive cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT), and b) General Practitioners (GPs) providing stratified care at the point-of-consultation for these five most common MSK pain presentations. Methods: The design was a pragmatic pilot, two parallel-arm (stratified versus nonstratified care), cluster RCT and the setting was 8 UK GP practices (4 intervention, 4 control) with randomisation (stratified by practice size) and blinding of trial statistician and outcome data-collectors. Participants were adult consulters with MSK pain without indicators of serious pathologies, urgent medical needs, or vulnerabilities. Potential participant records were tagged and individuals sent postal invitations using a GP point-of-consultation electronic medical record (EMR) template. The intervention was supported by the EMR template housing the Keele STarT MSK Tool (to stratify into low, medium and high-risk prognostic subgroups of persistent pain and disability) and recommended matched treatment options. Feasibility outcomes included exploration of recruitment and follow-up rates, selection bias, and GP intervention fidelity. To capture recommended outcomes including pain and function, participants completed an initial questionnaire, brief monthly questionnaire (postal or SMS), and 6-month follow-up questionnaire. An anonymised EMR audit described GP decision-making. Results: GPs screened 3063 patients (intervention=1591, control=1472), completed the EMR template with 1237 eligible patients (intervention=513, control=724) and 524 participants (42%) consented to data collection (intervention=231, control=293). Recruitment took 28 weeks (target 12 weeks) with >90% follow-up retention (target >75%). We detected no selection bias of concern and no harms identified. GP stratification tool fidelity failed to achieve a-priori success criteria, whilst fidelity to the matched treatments achieved “complete success”. Conclusions: A future definitive cluster RCT of stratified care for MSK pain is feasible and is underway, following key amendments including a clinician-completed version of the stratification tool and refinements to recommended matched treatments

Sensory Measurements: Coordination and Standardization

Do sensory measurements deserve the label of “measurement”? We argue that they do. They fit with an epistemological view of measurement held in current philosophy of science, and they face the same kinds of epistemological challenges as physical measurements do: the problem of coordination and the problem of standardization. These problems are addressed through the process of “epistemic iteration,” for all measurements. We also argue for distinguishing the problem of standardization from the problem of coordination. To exemplify our claims, we draw on olfactory performance tests, especially studies linking olfactory decline to neurodegenerative disorders

Truncated and Helix-Constrained Peptides with High Affinity and Specificity for the cFos Coiled-Coil of AP-1

Protein-based therapeutics feature large interacting surfaces. Protein folding endows structural stability to localised surface epitopes, imparting high affinity and target specificity upon interactions with binding partners. However, short synthetic peptides with sequences corresponding to such protein epitopes are unstructured in water and promiscuously bind to proteins with low affinity and specificity. Here we combine structural stability and target specificity of proteins, with low cost and rapid synthesis of small molecules, towards meeting the significant challenge of binding coiled coil proteins in transcriptional regulation. By iteratively truncating a Jun-based peptide from 37 to 22 residues, strategically incorporating i-->i+4 helix-inducing constraints, and positioning unnatural amino acids, we have produced short, water-stable, alpha-helical peptides that bind cFos. A three-dimensional NMR-derived structure for one peptide (24) confirmed a highly stable alpha-helix which was resistant to proteolytic degradation in serum. These short structured peptides are entropically pre-organized for binding with high affinity and specificity to cFos, a key component of the oncogenic transcriptional regulator Activator Protein-1 (AP-1). They competitively antagonized the cJun–cFos coiled-coil interaction. Truncating a Jun-based peptide from 37 to 22 residues decreased the binding enthalpy for cJun by ~9 kcal/mol, but this was compensated by increased conformational entropy (TDS ≤ 7.5 kcal/mol). This study demonstrates that rational design of short peptides constrained by alpha-helical cyclic pentapeptide modules is able to retain parental high helicity, as well as high affinity and specificity for cFos. These are important steps towards small antagonists of the cJun-cFos interaction that mediates gene transcription in cancer and inflammatory diseases