Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons and Liquidity

We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, fractal markets hypothesis considers financial markets as com- plex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices - DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 - we show that predictions of fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior quite well.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure

The potential of low-intensity and online interventions for depression in low- and middle-income countries

The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are confronted with a serious ‘mental health gap’, indicating an enormous disparity between the number of individuals in need of mental health care and the availability of professionals to provide such care (WHO in 2010). Traditional forms of mental health services (i.e. face-to-face, individualised assessments and interventions) are therefore not feasible. We propose three strategies for addressing this mental health gap: delivery of evidence-based, low-intensity interventions by non-specialists, the use of transdiagnostic treatment protocols, and strategic deployment of technology to facilitate access and uptake. We urge researchers from all over the world to conduct feasibility studies and randomised controlled studies on the effect of low-intensity interventions and technology supported (e.g. online) interventions in LMICs, preferably using an active control condition as comparison, to ensure we disseminate effective treatments in LMICs

Aortic stenting for neonatal coarctation of the aorta : when should this be considered?

Aortic coarctation (CoA) constitutes the fifth most common congenital heart defect (1 in 2500 live births). This lesion comprises 5-8% of congenital heart disease and has variable severity and mode of presentation. Critical coarctation in newborns usually presents with severe narrowing of the upper thoracic aorta below the isthmus and adjacent to the arterial duct, and is dependent on duct patency for survival. Rapid deterioration of the patient usually results from spontaneous closure of the patent arterial duct (PDA). This deterioration is in part due to reduced renal perfusion resulting in fluid and acid retention causing heart failure and metabolic acidosis. This may be alleviated by the administration of intravenous prostaglandin, with temporary improvement of distal aortic blood flow, and overall condition. The treatment of choice is surgical resection with the ‘extended end-to-end’ technique. We present a case of a severely ill newborn with complex coarctation, multiorgan failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation and oedema, who was treated with emergency stenting on the tenth day of life. This was followed by surgical stent removal and repair of the arch on the 29th day of life. We followed the strategy of minimally invasive interventional bridging of a borderline patient with regard to the experience of stenting of native coarctations in older patients, or complex recurrent stenosis of previously surgically treated childrenpeer-reviewe

Quantum response of dephasing open systems

We develop a theory of adiabatic response for open systems governed by Lindblad evolutions. The theory determines the dependence of the response coefficients on the dephasing rates and allows for residual dissipation even when the ground state is protected by a spectral gap. We give quantum response a geometric interpretation in terms of Hilbert space projections: For a two level system and, more generally, for systems with suitable functional form of the dephasing, the dissipative and non-dissipative parts of the response are linked to a metric and to a symplectic form. The metric is the Fubini-Study metric and the symplectic form is the adiabatic curvature. When the metric and symplectic structures are compatible the non-dissipative part of the inverse matrix of response coefficients turns out to be immune to dephasing. We give three examples of physical systems whose quantum states induce compatible metric and symplectic structures on control space: The qubit, coherent states and a model of the integer quantum Hall effect.Comment: Article rewritten, two appendices added. 16 pages, 2 figure

Checking Whether an Automaton Is Monotonic Is NP-complete

An automaton is monotonic if its states can be arranged in a linear order that is preserved by the action of every letter. We prove that the problem of deciding whether a given automaton is monotonic is NP-complete. The same result is obtained for oriented automata, whose states can be arranged in a cyclic order. Moreover, both problems remain hard under the restriction to binary input alphabets.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures. CIAA 2015. The final publication is available at http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-22360-5_2

Towards energy aware cloud computing application construction

The energy consumption of cloud computing continues to be an area of significant concern as data center growth continues to increase. This paper reports on an energy efficient interoperable cloud architecture realised as a cloud toolbox that focuses on reducing the energy consumption of cloud applications holistically across all deployment models. The architecture supports energy efficiency at service construction, deployment and operation. We discuss our practical experience during implementation of an architectural component, the Virtual Machine Image Constructor (VMIC), required to facilitate construction of energy aware cloud applications. We carry out a performance evaluation of the component on a cloud testbed. The results show the performance of Virtual Machine construction, primarily limited by available I/O, to be adequate for agile, energy aware software development. We conclude that the implementation of the VMIC is feasible, incurs minimal performance overhead comparatively to the time taken by other aspects of the cloud application construction life-cycle, and make recommendations on enhancing its performance

A European Perspective on Auditory Processing Disorder-Current Knowledge and Future Research Focus

Current notions of “hearing impairment,” as reflected in clinical audiological practice, do not acknowledge the needs of individuals who have normal hearing pure tone sensitivity but who experience auditory processing difficulties in everyday life that are indexed by reduced performance in other more sophisticated audiometric tests such as speech audiometry in noise or complex non-speech sound perception. This disorder, defined as “Auditory Processing Disorder” (APD) or “Central Auditory Processing Disorder” is classified in the current tenth version of the International Classification of diseases as H93.25 and in the forthcoming beta eleventh version. APDs may have detrimental effects on the affected individual, with low esteem, anxiety, and depression, and symptoms may remain into adulthood. These disorders may interfere with learning per se and with communication, social, emotional, and academic-work aspects of life. The objective of the present paper is to define a baseline European APD consensus formulated by experienced clinicians and researchers in this specific field of human auditory science. A secondary aim is to identify issues that future research needs to address in order to further clarify the nature of APD and thus assist in optimum diagnosis and evidence-based management. This European consensus presents the main symptoms, conditions, and specific medical history elements that should lead to auditory processing evaluation. Consensus on definition of the disorder, optimum diagnostic pathway, and appropriate management are highlighted alongside a perspective on future research focus

Seagrass Canopy Photosynthetic Response Is a Function of Canopy Density and Light Environment: A Model for Amphibolis griffithii

A three-dimensional computer model of canopies of the seagrass Amphibolis griffithii was used to investigate the consequences of variations in canopy structure and benthic light environment on leaf-level photosynthetic saturation state. The model was constructed using empirical data of plant morphometrics from a previously conducted shading experiment and validated well to in-situ data on light attenuation in canopies of different densities. Using published values of the leaf-level saturating irradiance for photosynthesis, results show that the interaction of canopy density and canopy-scale photosynthetic response is complex and non-linear, due to the combination of self-shading and the non-linearity of photosynthesis versus irradiance (P-I) curves near saturating irradiance. Therefore studies of light limitation in seagrasses should consider variation in canopy structure and density. Based on empirical work, we propose a number of possible measures for canopy scale photosynthetic response that can be plotted to yield isoclines in the space of canopy density and light environment. These plots can be used to interpret the significance of canopy changes induced as a response to decreases in the benthic light environment: in some cases canopy thinning can lead to an equivalent leaf level light environment, in others physiological changes may also be required but these alone may be inadequate for canopy survival. By providing insight to these processes the methods developed here could be a valuable management tool for seagrass conservation during dredging or other coastal developments

Assessment of Minimal Residual Disease in Standard-Risk AML

BACKGROUND: Despite the molecular heterogeneity of standard-risk acute myeloid leukemia (AML), treatment decisions are based on a limited number of molecular genetic markers and morphology-based assessment of remission. Sensitive detection of a leukemia-specific marker (e.g., a mutation in the gene encoding nucleophosmin [NPM1]) could improve prognostication by identifying submicroscopic disease during remission. METHODS: We used a reverse-transcriptase quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction assay to detect minimal residual disease in 2569 samples obtained from 346 patients with NPM1-mutated AML who had undergone intensive treatment in the National Cancer Research Institute AML17 trial. We used a custom 51-gene panel to perform targeted sequencing of 223 samples obtained at the time of diagnosis and 49 samples obtained at the time of relapse. Mutations associated with preleukemic clones were tracked by means of digital polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Molecular profiling highlighted the complexity of NPM1-mutated AML, with segregation of patients into more than 150 subgroups, thus precluding reliable outcome prediction. The determination of minimal-residual-disease status was more informative. Persistence of NPM1-mutated transcripts in blood was present in 15% of the patients after the second chemotherapy cycle and was associated with a greater risk of relapse after 3 years of follow-up than was an absence of such transcripts (82% vs. 30%; hazard ratio, 4.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.95 to 7.80; P<0.001) and a lower rate of survival (24% vs. 75%; hazard ratio for death, 4.38; 95% CI, 2.57 to 7.47; P<0.001). The presence of minimal residual disease was the only independent prognostic factor for death in multivariate analysis (hazard ratio, 4.84; 95% CI, 2.57 to 9.15; P<0.001). These results were validated in an independent cohort. On sequential monitoring of minimal residual disease, relapse was reliably predicted by a rising level of NPM1-mutated transcripts. Although mutations associated with preleukemic clones remained detectable during ongoing remission after chemotherapy, NPM1 mutations were detected in 69 of 70 patients at the time of relapse and provided a better marker of disease status. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of minimal residual disease, as determined by quantitation of NPM1-mutated transcripts, provided powerful prognostic information independent of other risk factors. (Funded by Bloodwise and the National Institute for Health Research; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN55675535.)

Community-based rehabilitation and disability-inclusive development: On a winding path to an uncertain destination

The majority of people with disabilities who live in developing countries, predominantly in the global South, do not receive any formal disability or rehabilitation services. In those countries or regions where at least some disability services are provided, the community-based rehabilitation (CBR) approach, or some form of it, is likely to be the only approach available (Evans et al. 2001)