Supply-chain modelling and control under proportional inventory-replenishment policies

A novel state-space model of a multi-node supply chain is presented, controlled via local proportional inventory-replenishment policies. The model is driven by a stochastic sequence representing customer demand. The model is analysed under stationarity conditions and a simple recursive scheme is developed for updating its covariance matrix. This allows us to characterise the ‘bullwhip effect’ (demand amplification) in the chain and to solve an optimisation problem for a three-node model involving the minimisation of inventory subject to a probabilistic constraint on downstream demand. Finally, issues related to estimation schemes based on local historical data are briefly discussed

Approximating the Nonlinear Newsvendor and Single-Item Stochastic Lot-Sizing Problems When Data Is Given by an Oracle

The single-item stochastic lot-sizing problem is to find an inventory replenishment policy in the presence of discrete stochastic demands under periodic review and finite time horizon. A closely related problem is the single-period newsvendor model. It is well known that the newsvendor problem admits a closed formula for the optimal order quantity whenever the revenue and salvage values are linear increasing functions and the procurement (ordering) cost is fixed plus linear. The optimal policy for the single-item lot-sizing model is also well known under similar assumptions. In this paper we show that the classical (single-period) newsvendor model with fixed plus linear ordering cost cannot be approximated to any degree of accuracy when either the demand distribution or the cost functions are given by an oracle. We provide a fully polynomial time approximation scheme for the nonlinear single-item stochastic lot-sizing problem, when demand distribution is given by an oracle, procurement costs are provided as nondecreasing oracles, holding/backlogging/disposal costs are linear, and lead time is positive. Similar results exist for the nonlinear newsvendor problem. These approximation schemes are designed by extending the technique of K-approximation sets and functions.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Contract CMMI-0758069)United States. Office of Naval Research (Grant N000141110056

Approximation Algorithms for Stochastic Inventory Control Models

Approximation Algorithms for Stochastic Inventory Control Model

N-oleoyldopamine, a novel endogenous capsaicin-like lipid that produces hyperalgesia.

N-Arachidonoyldopamine (NADA) was recently identified as an endogenous ligand for the vanilloid type 1 receptor (VR1). Further analysis of the bovine striatal extract from which NADA was isolated indicated the existence of substances corresponding in molecular mass to N-oleoyldopamine (OLDA), N-palmitoyldopamine (PALDA), and N-stearoyldopamine (STEARDA). Quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometric analysis of bovine striatal extracts revealed the existence of OLDA, PALDA, and STEARDA as endogenous compounds in the mammalian brain. PALDA and STEARDA failed to affect calcium influx in VR1-transfected human embryonic kidney (HEK) 293 cells or paw withdrawal latencies from a radiant heat source, and there was no evidence of spontaneous pain behavior. By contrast, OLDA induced calcium influx (EC(50) = 36 nm), reduced the latency of paw withdrawal from a radiant heat source in a dose-dependent manner (EC(50) = 0.72 microg), and produced nocifensive behavior. These effects were blocked by co-administration of the VR1 antagonist iodo-resiniferatoxin (10 nm for HEK cells and 1 microg/50 micro;l for pain behavior). These findings demonstrate the existence of an endogenous compound in the brain that is similar to capsaicin and NADA in its chemical structure and activity on VR1. Unlike NADA, OLDA was only a weak ligand for rat CB1 receptors; but like NADA, it was recognized by the anandamide membrane transporter while being a poor substrate for fatty-acid amide hydrolase. Analysis of the activity of six additional synthetic and potentially endogenous N-acyldopamine indicated the requirement of a long unsaturated fatty acid chain for an optimal functional interaction with VR1 receptors

Identification of a New Class of Molecules, the Arachidonyl Amino Acids, and Characterization of One Member That Inhibits Pain

In mammals, specific lipids and amino acids serve as crucial signaling molecules. In bacteria, conjugates of lipids and amino acids (referred to as lipoamino acids) have been identified and found to possess biological activity. Here, we report that mammals also produce lipoamino acids, specifically the arachidonyl amino acids. We show that the conjugate of arachidonic acid and glycine (N-arachidonylglycine (NAGly)) is present in bovine and rat brain as well as other tissues and that it suppresses tonic inflammatory pain. The biosynthesis of NAGly and its degradation by the enzyme fatty acid amide hydrolase can be observed in rat brain tissue. In addition to NAGly, bovine brain produces at least two other arachidonyl amino acids: N-arachidonyl gamma-aminobutyric acid (NAGABA) and N-arachidonylalanine. Like NAGly, NAGABA inhibits pain. These findings open the door to the identification of other members of this new class of biomolecules, which may be integral to pain regulation and a variety of functions in mammals

Strategies for fitting nonlinear ecological models in R, AD Model Builder, and BUGS

Summary: 1. Ecologists often use nonlinear fitting techniques to estimate the parameters of complex ecological models, with attendant frustration. This paper compares three open-source model fitting tools and discusses general strategies for defining and fitting models. 2. R is convenient and (relatively) easy to learn, AD Model Builder is fast and robust but comes with a steep learning curve, while BUGS provides the greatest flexibility at the price of speed. 3. Our model-fitting suggestions range from general cultural advice (where possible, use the tools and models that are most common in your subfield) to specific suggestions about how to change the mathematical description of models to make them more amenable to parameter estimation. 4. A companion web site (https://groups.nceas.ucsb.edu/nonlinear-modeling/projects) presents detailed examples of application of the three tools to a variety of typical ecological estimation problems; each example links both to a detailed project report and to full source code and data

Models for assessing local-scale co-abundance of animal species while accounting for differential detectability and varied responses to the environment

We developed a new modeling framework to assess how the local abundance of one species influences the local abundance of a potential competitor while explicitly accounting for differential responses to environmental conditions. Our models also incorporate imperfect detection as well as abundance estimation error for both species. As a case study, we applied the model to four pairs of mammal species in Borneo, surveyed by extensive and spatially widespread camera trapping. We detected different responses to elevation gradients within civet, macaque, and muntjac deer species pairs. Muntjac and porcupine species varied in their response to terrain ruggedness, and the two muntjac responded different to river proximity. Bornean endemic species of civet and muntjac were more sensitive than their widespread counterparts to habitat disturbance (selective logging). Local abundance within several species pairs was positively correlated, but this is likely due to the species having similar responses to (unmodeled) environmental conditions or resources rather than representing facilitation. After accounting for environment and correcting for false absences in detection, negative correlations in local abundance appear rare in tropical mammals. Direct competition may be weak in these species, possibly because the ‘ghost of competition past’ or habitat filtering have already driven separation of the species in niche space. The analytical framework presented here could increase basic understanding of how ecological interactions shape patterns of abundance across the landscape for a range of taxa, and also provide a powerful tool for forecasting the impacts of global change. © 2017 The Association for Tropical Biology and Conservatio

Behavioral and Psychophysiological Responsiveness During Child Feeding in Mothers with Histories of Eating Disorders: A Pilot Study

The aim of this pilot project was to describe maternal responsiveness during child feeding in mothers with eating disorder histories through the combined use of observational, self-report, and physiologic methods. For this non-randomized cohort pilot study, 25 mothers with histories of eating disorders and 25 mothers with no history of an eating disorder with children ages 6–36 months were selected such that the groups were similar based on child age group (within 6 months) and child sex. Maternal behavioral responsiveness to child cues was assessed by video-recording and behavioral coding of both a free-play and feeding episode. Physiologic engagement was assessed through measurement of respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) reactivity during free-play and feeding episodes. No differences were detected in observed behavioral responsiveness during feeding or free-play in mothers with eating disorder histories compared with controls. Mothers with eating disorder histories did report more parenting stress, increased anxiety, and exhibited a blunted physiologic stress response (less RSA reactivity) during both feeding and free-play interactions with their children. These results support future larger-scale investigations of RSA reactivity in mothers with eating disorders