Forward looking analysis : investigating how individuals 'do' foresight and make sense of the future

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the growing field of foresight process theory. Scanning the environment and assessing uncertainty are among the most important managerial activities in strategizing and decision-making. Although their significance in the strategy process is well documented, there is limited research on how uncertainty captured is analysed and interpreted by individuals without any formalised processes in order to anticipate the future. This paper examines how analysts from a professional service company, which specialises in forward-looking analysis, develop foresight, and how they determine the potential impact of their judgements. Within this in-depth inductive case study, firstly we explore forward-looking analysis as a foresight process. Secondly, we investigate how sensemaking takes place within forward-looking analysis. Thirdly, we advance the knowledge on the relationship between foresight and sensemaking; and specifically we show with empirical evidence that prospective sensemaking can be both ‘future perfect’ (Weickian) and ‘future oriented’ (post-Weickian)

Exploring How Experience and Learning Curves Decrease the Time Invested in Scenario Planning Interventions

Scenario planning is a strategy tool which is often deemed to be too expensive and too time intensive. Drawing on learning curve theory, we set out to ascertain whether enacting scenario planning as an iterative, repetitive process and not as a one-off intervention would help practitioners to do it faster. Through a global survey of the practice of scenario planning, we relate how we failed to confirm this proposition, but instead found other factors which appear to affect the time required to carry out scenario planning. Our research suggests that organizational factors, mainly size and prior experience in carrying out scenario planning in the organization, are statistically significant contributors to making scenario planning take less time than practitioners expected; and individual factors also affect this decrease. These individual factors mainly concern prior scenario planning experience, which -unsurprisingly- also significantly shortens the time used to conduct a given scenario planning intervention. The lessons we draw from these findings suggest that the time it takes to use strategy tools, and scenario planning in particular, can be shortened. With this research, scholars can better delineate criteria to enact strategy tools efficiently; and practitioners can better plan strategic initiatives by securing the necessary resources

Global Reinsurance Masterclass Series 7 - Imagining the future: stay ahead in the reinsurance game through scenario planning

This Masterclass is designed to help reinsurers take control of their future through the foresight technique of scenario planning. This practical managerial tool enables companies in the field of risk management to assess any external uncertainties and develop strategies in accordance

Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight

This paper presents a novel method for using scenarios for technology foresight. Technology foresight is a well-established discipline, practised with popular foresight methods such as roadmapping and scenario planning. Applying each foresight method reveals limitations in practice, some of which can be addressed by combining methods. Following calls for combining foresight methods, and past attempts to integrate scenario planning and technology roadmapping, we propose a novel method for their combination. The resulting method — ‘scenario-driven roadmapping’ differs in: i) using scenario planning first to identify plausible images of the general environment and then using the scenarios for technology roadmapping; and ii) taking advantage of ‘flex points’ – critical developments which would signal transitions along particular pathways – to create a ‘radar’ to support effective monitoring of the environment over time. This new combined method takes advantage of the strengths of both methods, while addressing their limitations. A case study vignette centred on the work of a special interest group for Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) technology adoption in the English National Health Service is presented to illustrate and reflect upon the use in practice of the ‘scenario-driven roadmapping’ method. Participants were able to develop a detailed technology roadmap with clear ‘flex points’ helping to connect present circumstances with pathways towards future scenarios. We report on how participants engaged with the scenario-driven method and outcomes achieved were recorded

Caveolin-1 and Altered Neuregulin Signaling Contribute to the Pathophysiological Progression of Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy

Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ for details.OBJECTIVE Evaluate if Erb B2 activation and the loss of caveolin-1 (Cav1) contribute to the pathophysiological progression of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Cav1 knockout and wild-type C57BL/6 mice were rendered diabetic with streptozotocin, and changes in motor nerve conduction velocity (MNCV), mechanical and thermal hypoalgesia, Erb B2 phosphorylation (pErb B2), and epidermal nerve fiber density were assessed. The contribution of Erb B2 to DPN was assessed using the Erb B2 inhibitors PKI 166 and erlotinib and a conditional bitransgenic mouse that expressed a constitutively active form of Erb B2 in myelinated Schwann cells (SCs). RESULTS Diabetic mice exhibited decreased MNCV and mechanical and thermal sensitivity, but the extent of these deficits was more severe in diabetic Cav1 knockout mice. Diabetes increased pErb B2 levels in both genotypes, but the absence of Cav1 correlated with a greater increase in pErb B2. Erb B2 activation contributed to the mechanical hypoalgesia and MNCV deficits in both diabetic genotypes because treatment with erlotinib or PKI 166 improved these indexes of DPN. Similarly, induction of a constitutively active Erb B2 in myelinated SCs was sufficient to decrease MNCV and induce a mechanical hypoalgesia in the absence of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS Increased Erb B2 activity contributes to specific indexes of DPN, and Cav1 may be an endogenous regulator of Erb B2 signaling. Altered Erb B2 signaling is a novel mechanism that contributes to SC dysfunction in diabetes, and inhibiting Erb B2 may ameliorate deficits of tactile sensitivity in DPN. Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) is a common complication of diabetes (1). Although hyperglycemia is the definitive cause of DPN (2), the vascular, glial, and neuronal damage that underlies the progressive axonopathy in DPN has a complex biochemical etiology involving oxidative stress (3,4), protein glycation (5), protein kinase C activation (6), polyol synthesis (7), and the hexosamine pathway (8). Altered neurotrophic support also contributes to sensory neuron dysfunction in DPN (9), but whether diabetes may alter growth factor signaling in Schwann cells (SCs), which also undergo substantial degeneration in diabetes, is poorly defined. Neuregulins are growth factors that control SC growth, survival, and differentiation via their interaction with Erb B receptors (10). Although Erb B2 signaling promotes developmental myelination and is clearly trophic for SCs, pharmacological evidence supports that pathologic activation of Erb B2 after axotomy (11) or infection with leprosy bacilli (12) is sufficient to induce SC dedifferentiation and demyelination. Additionally, genetic evidence supports that Erb B2 can promote the development of sensory neuropathies independent of diabetes because expression of a dominant-negative Erb B4 in nonmyelinating (13) or myelinating (14) SCs induced a temperature or mechanical sensory neuropathy, respectively. Given the contribution of Erb B2 to the degeneration of SCs, endogenous proteins that regulate Erb B2 activity may influence the development of certain aspects of sensory neuropathies. The interaction of Erb B2 with the protein caveolin-1 (Cav1) inhibits the intrinsic tyrosine kinase activity of the receptor (15). Cav1 is highly expressed in mature, myelinated SCs (16), and we have shown that prolonged hyperglycemia promoted the downregulation of Cav1 in SCs of sciatic nerve (17). Cav1 may regulate Erb B2 signaling in SCs because its forced downregulation was sufficient to enhance neuregulin-induced demyelination of SC–dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neuron cocultures (18). However, it is unknown whether an increase in Erb B2 activity may contribute to the pathophysiological development of DPN and if changes in Cav1 expression may alter Erb B2 activation in diabetic nerve. In the current study, we demonstrate that diabetic Cav1 knockout mice showed an increased activation of Erb B2 and developed greater motor nerve conduction velocity (MNCV) deficits relative to their wild-type counterparts. Inhibition of Erb B2 with two structurally diverse inhibitors corrected the MNCV deficits and mechanical hypoalgesia evident after 6 or 15 weeks of diabetes. Also, induction of a constitutively active Erb B2 in myelinated SCs of adult mice was sufficient to recapitulate the MNCV and mechanical sensitivity deficits observed in the diabetic mice. These studies provide the first evidence that activation of Erb B2 contributes to deficits associated with myelinated fiber function in diabetic nerve and suggest that Cav1 may serve as an endogenous regulator of Erb B2.This work was supported by grants from the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation and the National Institutes of Health (NS-054847 and DK-073594)

MMP-28 as a regulator of myelination

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Matrix metalloproteinase-28 (MMP-28) is a poorly understood member of the matrix metalloproteinase family. Metalloproteinases are important mediators in the development of the nervous system and can contribute to the maturation of the neural micro-environment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MMP-28 added to myelinating rat dorsal root ganglion (DRG) co-cultures reduces myelination and two antibodies targeted to MMP-28 (pAb180 and pAb183) are capable of binding MMP-28 and inhibiting its activity in a dose-dependent manner. Addition of 30 nM pAb180 or pAb183 to rat DRG cultures resulted in the 2.6 and 4.8 fold enhancement of myelination respectively while addition of MMP-28 to DRG co-cultures resulted in enhanced MAPK, ErbB2 and ErbB3 phosphorylation. MMP-28 protein expression was increased within demyelinated lesions of mouse experimental autoimmune encephalitis (EAE) and human multiple sclerosis lesions compared to surrounding normal tissue.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>MMP-28 is upregulated in conditions of demyelination in vivo, induces signaling in vitro consistent with myelination inhibition and, neutralization of MMP-28 activity can enhance myelination in vitro. These results suggest inhibition of MMP-28 may be beneficial under conditions of dysmyelination.</p

Integrating organizational, social, and individual perspectives in Web 2.0-based workplace e-learning

From the issue entitled 'Special Issue: Emerging Social and Legal Aspect'E-learning is emerging as a popular approach of education in the workplace by virtue of its flexibility to access, just-in-time delivery, and cost-effectiveness. To improve social interaction and knowledge sharing in e-learning, Web 2.0 is increasingly utilized and integrated with e-learning applications. However, existing social learning systems fail to align learning with organizational goals and individual needs in a systemic way. The dominance of technology-oriented approaches makes elearning applications less goal-effective and poor in quality and design. To solve the problem, we address the requirement of integrating organizational, social, and individual perspectives in the development of Web 2.0 elearning systems. To fulfill the requirement, a key performance indicator (KPI)-oriented approach is presented in this study. By integrating a KPI model with Web 2.0 technologies, our approach is able to: 1) set up organizational goals and link the goals with expertise required for individuals; 2) build a knowledge network by linking learning resources to a set of competences to be developed and a group of people who learn and contribute to the knowledge network through knowledge creation, sharing, and peer evaluation; and 3) improve social networking and knowledge sharing by identifying each individual's work context, expertise, learning need, performance, and contribution. The mechanism of the approach is explored and elaborated with conceptual frameworks and implementation technologies. A prototype system for Web 2.0 e-learning has been developed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. © Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2009.postprin

Ablation of Dicer from murine Schwann cells increases their proliferation while blocking myelination

The myelin sheaths that surround the thick axons of the peripheral nervous system are produced by the highly specialized Schwann cells. Differentiation of Schwann cells and myelination occur in discrete steps. Each of these requires coordinated expression of specific proteins in a precise sequence, yet the regulatory mechanisms controlling protein expression during these events are incompletely understood. Here we report that Schwann cell-specific ablation of the enzyme Dicer1, which is required for the production of small non-coding regulatory microRNAs, fully arrests Schwann cell differentiation, resulting in early postnatal lethality. Dicer(-/-) Schwann cells had lost their ability to myelinate, yet were still capable of sorting axons. Both cell death and, paradoxically, proliferation of immature Schwann cells was markedly enhanced, suggesting that their terminal differentiation is triggered by growth-arresting regulatory microRNAs. Using microRNA microarrays, we identified 16 microRNAs that are upregulated upon myelination and whose expression is controlled by Dicer in Schwann cells. This set of microRNAs appears to drive Schwann cell differentiation and myelination of peripheral nerves, thereby fulfilling a crucial function for survival of the organism

Examining the strategy development process through the lens of complex adaptive systems theory

The development of strategy remains a debate for academics and a concern for practitioners. Published research has focused on producing models for strategy development and on studying how strategy is developed in organisations. The Operational Research literature has highlighted the importance of considering complexity within strategic decision making; but little has been done to link strategy development with complexity theories, despite organisations and organisational environments becoming increasingly more complex. We review the dominant streams of strategy development and complexity theories. Our theoretical investigation results in the first conceptual framework which links an established Strategic Operational Research model, the Strategy Development Process model, with complexity via Complex Adaptive Systems theory. We present preliminary findings from the use of this conceptual framework applied to a longitudinal, in-depth case study, to demonstrate the advantages of using this integrated conceptual model. Our research shows that the conceptual model proposed provides rich data and allows for a more holistic examination of the strategy development process. © 2012 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved