Report on methods for demographic projections at multiple levels of aggregation

This report describes methods of internal consistency in population projections at multiple levels of aggregation. The first step in the process is to make the initial assumptions used in the projections at different levels of aggregation consistent. This input-level consistency can be further enhanced by output-level analysis. Comparing the results at the relevant levels of aggregation ensures internal consistency at the output level. Thus, we are able to compare the differences in the age and sex distribution of the population and specific demographic indicators (such as the old age dependency ratio) over various regional levels. In PLUREL, the national projections will be carried out using the probabilistic method while the regional projections will use deterministic or variant methods. The results at these two levels of aggregation cannot be directly compared one-to-one as there is no simple correspondence between the output variants and the probabilistic range. To avoid any problems arising from this, we develop an index representing the differences in the size and distribution of the population from the variant method to a given percentile in the probabilistic population estimate. The report discusses various population projection techniques together with their strengths and weaknesses. The relative advantage of specific models for different purposes is discussed forming a selection of models to be used for the population projections in PLUREL: National (NUTS1-0), Regional (NUTS-2) and Case Study Projections (NUTS-5). We conclude that stochastic projections are best suited for national projections, while classic or multiregional cohort-component model projections are likely to be the best choice for the regional projections and for the detailed case study projections

Mozambique's Future: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development Challenges

What are the prospects for sustainable development over the next 20 years in Mozambique? Although it looks as if much of the development prospects are determined by such inherently unpredictable events as war, peace, and weather calamities, there are also many changes and patterns which have a long-term stability and which change only slowly over time. For example, socio-demographic changes, such as labor force skills, and population health have a long momentum. These are very important indicators for the economic development potential of a country. Also, although it is impossible to predict a particular year of heavy rains or droughts, there are long time series of weather from which we can calculate the country's vulnerability to single- or multiple-year weather disasters. To focus our efforts in answering this bold question, we concentrate on four issues: (1) Can poverty be erased in the next 20 years? (2) How will school enrollment lead to higher skills in the labor force by 2020? (3) What role will water play in development, in particular, water provision by rain to rural areas, and infrastructure to cities? (4) And, most importantly, what will be the impacts of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in the next decades

Noble gas constraints on the fate of arsenic in groundwater

Groundwater contamination of geogenic arsenic (As) remains a global health threat, particularly in south-east Asia. The prominent correlation often observed between high As concentrations and methane (CH$_{4}$) stimulated the analysis of the gas dynamics in an As contaminated aquifer, whereby noble and reactive gases were analysed. Results show a progressive depletion of atmospheric gases (Ar, Kr and N$_{2}$) alongside highly increasing CH$_{4}$, implying that a free gas phase comprised mainly of CH$_{4}$ is formed within the aquifer. In contrast, Helium (He) concentrations are high within the CH$_{4}$ (gas) producing zone, suggesting longer (groundwater) residence times. We hypothesized that the observed free (CH$_{4}$) gas phase severely detracts local groundwater (flow) and significantly reduces water renewal within the gas producing zone. Results are in-line with this hypothesis, however, a second hypothesis has been developed, which focuses on the potential transport of He from an adjacent aquitard into the (CH$_{4}$) gas producing zone. This second hypothesis was formulated as it resolves the particularly high He concentrations observed, and since external solute input from the overlying heterogeneous aquitard cannot be excluded. The proposed feedback between the gas phase and hydraulics provides a plausible explanation of the anti-intuitive correlation between high As and CH$_{4}$, and the spatially highly patchy distribution of dissolved As concentrations in contaminated aquifers. Furthermore, the increased groundwater residence time would allow for the dissolution of more crystalline As-hosting iron(Fe)-oxide phases in conjunction with the formation of more stable secondary Fe minerals in the hydraulically-slowed (i.e., gas producing) zone; a subject which calls for further investigation

Composition and activity of nitrifier communities in soil are unresponsive to elevated temperature and CO2, but strongly affected by drought

Nitrification is a fundamental process in terrestrial nitrogen cycling. However, detailed information on how climate change affects the structure of nitrifier communities is lacking, specifically from experiments in which multiple climate change factors are manipulated simultaneously. Consequently, our ability to predict how soil nitrogen (N) cycling will change in a future climate is limited. We conducted a field experiment in a managed grassland and simultaneously tested the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, temperature, and drought on the abundance of active ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA), comammox (CMX) Nitrospira, and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB), and on gross mineralization and nitrification rates. We found that N transformation processes, as well as gene and transcript abundances, and nitrifier community composition were remarkably resistant to individual and interactive effects of elevated CO2 and temperature. During drought however, process rates were increased or at least maintained. At the same time, the abundance of active AOB increased probably due to higher NH4+ availability. Both, AOA and comammox Nitrospira decreased in response to drought and the active community composition of AOA and NOB was also significantly affected. In summary, our findings suggest that warming and elevated CO2 have only minor effects on nitrifier communities and soil biogeochemical variables in managed grasslands, whereas drought favors AOB and increases nitrification rates. This highlights the overriding importance of drought as a global change driver impacting on soil microbial community structure and its consequences for N cycling

Do fine root morphological and functional adaptations support regrowth success in a tropical forest restoration experiment?

In early stages of forest succession plants have a high nutrient demand, but it is still a matter of debate if regrowth success of pioneer species is related to plant functional traits favoring fast soil colonization and nutrient acquisition. In general, we would expect trade-offs between plant growth performance and fine root morphological properties in association with different plant life-history strategies. Hence, we hypothesized that fast growing plants should have a more efficient root system that allows them to outcompete slow-growing neighbors in a resource-limited environment. To test our hypothesis we monitored plant successional growth dynamics in a tropical lowland rainforest reforestation experiment conducted in southwest Costa Rica. We collected absorptive roots (<2mm diameter) from plant individuals (comprising 20 tree species and 11 plant families) with different growth dynamics (as indicated by measurements of stem diameter and height). For these samples we assessed a suite of fine root morphological traits, such as legume nodulation status, and furthermore quantified fine root nutrient concentration and phosphatase activities, as well as microbial biomass and phosphatase activity in soils in the close vicinity of fine roots. We found stark differences in fine root characteristics between the tree species investigated in this study, such that fast growing species exhibited relatively larger specific root length and higher turnover, whereas slow growing species tend to rely on mechanical resistance by increasing root tissue density and root life span. Our results suggest that the identified differences in the root trait spectrum between fast and slow growing species reflect plant functional adaptions to resource limitation, edaphic properties and soil microbial symbioses. Our findings further highlight the crucial need to foster our understanding of belowground root morphological and physiological traits during forest succession, especially so when aiming to restore forest ecosystem functioning in formerly intensified land-use systems

Toward a more sustainable mining future with electrokinetic in situ leaching

This is the final version. Available on open access from AAAS via the DOI in this recordData and materials availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Additional data related to this paper may be requested from the authors.Metals are currently almost exclusively extracted from their ore via physical excavation. This energy-intensive process dictates that metal mining remains among the foremost CO2 emitters and mine waste is the single largest waste form by mass. We propose a new approach, electrokinetic in situ leaching (EK-ISL), and demonstrate its applicability for a Cu-bearing sulfidic porphyry ore. In laboratory-scale experiments, Cu recovery was rapid (up to 57 weight % after 94 days) despite low ore hydraulic conductivity (permeability = 6.1 mD; porosity = 10.6%). Multiphysics numerical model simulations confirm the feasibility of EK-ISL at the field scale. This new approach to mining is therefore poised to spearhead a new paradigm of metal recovery from currently inaccessible ore bodies with a markedly reduced environmental footprint.Minerals Research Institute of Western Australia (MRIWA

Re-Framing the Picture: An International Comparative Assessment of Gender Equity Policies in the Film Sector: Full Report Gender Equity Policy (GEP) Analysis Project

Re-Framing the Picture presents research from the “Gender Equity Policy (GEP) Analysis” project. Building on a substantial corpus of studies and data evidencing the long history of gender inequity in the international film sector, the international team of researchers located in Germany, the UK and Canada has designed an innovative, interdisciplinary approach with the aim to “assess, understand, and model the impact of gender equity policies (GEP) in the film industry”. To re-frame the picture of gender equity in film industries, they studied the policies, practices and norms that constrain equitable industry structures. The report presents in-depth insights from three different perspectives: The Policies, the Number, and the Networks. The researchers combine an in-depth analysis of existing gender equity policies, using a specifically designed policy analysis framework and interviews with industry experts, with a quantitative analysis that looks more closely at industry data and the structures it reveals. Finally, a social network approach helps understand how different interventions might reduce the dominance of men in the three case film industries (Germany, the UK and Canada) by modelling the impact of hypothetical policies. They find that 1) fighting gender inequity remains a long-haul endeavour, 2) no one-size-fits-all solution exists, 3) policies need to be intentional and structural, 4) and we should expand the reach of policies that make access to, for instance, funding or awards nominations dependent on progress towards gender equity

The Wellesley News (12-01-1966)

https://repository.wellesley.edu/wcnews/1090/thumbnail.jp

Dilfikar

P. Fahriye'nin Hanımlara Mahsus Gazete'de tefrika edilen Dilfikar adlı roman

Geschlechterstereotype und Geschlechterrollen

Zweitveröffentlichun