Linking Flow Regime, Floodplain Lake Connectivity and Fish Catch in a Large River-Floodplain System, the Volga-Akhtuba Floodplain (Russian Federation)

River-floodplain systems are amongst the most productive—but often severely impacted—aquatic systems worldwide. We explored the ecological response of fish to flow regime in a large river-floodplain system by studying the relationships between (1) discharge and inundated floodplain area, with a focus on spatial and temporal patterns in floodplain lake connectivity, and (2) flood volume and fisheries catch. Our results demonstrate a non-linear relationship between discharge and floodplain inundation with considerable hysteresis due to differences in inundation and drainage rate. Inundation extent was mostly determined by flood volume, not peak discharge. We found that the more isolated lakes (that is, lakes with a shorter connection duration to the river) are located at higher local elevation and at larger hydrological distance from the main rivers: geographical distance to the river appears a poor predictor of lake isolation. Although year-to-year fish catches in the floodplain were significantly larger with larger flood volumes in the floodplain, they were not in the main river, suggesting that mechanisms that increase catch, such as increased floodplain access or increased somatic growth, are stimulated by flooding in the floodplain, but not in the river. Fish species that profit from flooding belong to different feeding guilds, suggesting that all trophic levels may benefit from flooding. We found indications that the ecological functioning of floodplains is not limited to its temporary availability as habitat. Refugia can be present within the floodplain itself, which should be considered in the management of large rivers and their floodplain

Poisson transition rates from time-domain measurements with finite bandwidth

In time-domain measurements of a Poisson two-level system, the observed transition rates are always smaller than those of the actual system, a general consequence of finite measurement bandwidth in an experiment. This underestimation of the rates is significant even when the measurement and detection apparatus is ten times faster than the process under study. We derive here a quantitative form for this correction using a straightforward state-transition model that includes the detection apparatus, and provide a method for determining a system's actual transition rates from bandwidth-limited measurements. We support our results with computer simulations and experimental data from time-domain measurements of quasiparticle tunneling in a single-Cooper-pair transistor.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Diphtheria antitoxin levels in the Netherlands: a population-based study.

In a population-based study in the Netherlands, diphtheria antitoxin antibodies were measured with a toxin-binding inhibition assay in 9, 134 sera from the general population and religious communities refusing vaccination. The Dutch immunization program appears to induce long-term protection against diphtheria. However, a substantial number of adults born before the program was introduced had no protective diphtheria antibody levels. Although herd immunity seems adequate, long-term population protection cannot be assured. As more than 60% of orthodox reformed persons have antibody levels lower than 0.01 IU/ml, introduction of diphtheria into religious communities refusing vaccination may constitute a danger of spread of the bacterium

Underreporting of meningococcal disease incidence in the Netherlands: results from a capture-recapture analysis based on three registration sources with correction for false positive diagnoses.

In order to come to a reliable evaluation of the effectiveness of the chosen vaccination policy regarding meningococcal disease, the completeness of registrations on meningococcal disease in the Netherlands was estimated with the capture-recapture method. Data over 1993-1998 were collected from (A) mandatory notifications (n = 2926); (B) hospital registration (n = 3968); (C) laboratory surveillance (n = 3484). As the standard capture-recapture method does not take into account false positive diagnoses, we developed a model to adjust for the lack of specificity of our sources. We estimated that 1363 cases were not registered in any of the three sources in the period of study. The completeness of the three sources was therefore estimated at 49% for source A, 67% for source B and 58% for source C. After adjustment for false positive diagnoses, the completeness of source A, B, and C was estimated as 52%, 70% and 62%, respectively. The capture-recapture methods offer an attractive approach to estimate the completeness of surveillance sources and hence contribute to a more accurate estimate of the disease burden under study. However, the method does not account for higher-order interactions or presence of false positive diagnoses. Being aware of these limitations, the capture-recapture method still elucidates the (in)completeness of sources and gives a rough estimate of this (in)completeness. This makes a more accurate monitoring of disease incidence possible and hence attributes to a more reliable foundation for the design and evaluation of health interventions such as vaccination programs

The Role of a Nutrition Support Team in the Management of Intestinal Failure Patients

Parenteral nutrition (PN) is a complex and specialized form of nutrition support that has revolutionized the care for both pediatric and adult patients with acute and chronic intestinal failure (IF). This has led to the development of multidisciplinary teams focused on th

Using ordinal logistic regression to evaluate the performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time

Background Laser-Doppler imaging (LDI) of cutaneous blood flow is beginning to be used by burn surgeons to predict the healing time of burn wounds; predicted healing time is used to determine wound treatment as either dressings or surgery. In this paper, we do a statistical analysis of the performance of the technique. Methods We used data from a study carried out by five burn centers: LDI was done once between days 2 to 5 post burn, and healing was assessed at both 14 days and 21 days post burn. Random-effects ordinal logistic regression and other models such as the continuation ratio model were used to model healing-time as a function of the LDI data, and of demographic and wound history variables. Statistical methods were also used to study the false-color palette, which enables the laser-Doppler imager to be used by clinicians as a decision-support tool. Results Overall performance is that diagnoses are over 90% correct. Related questions addressed were what was the best blood flow summary statistic and whether, given the blood flow measurements, demographic and observational variables had any additional predictive power (age, sex, race, % total body surface area burned (%TBSA), site and cause of burn, day of LDI scan, burn center). It was found that mean laser-Doppler flux over a wound area was the best statistic, and that, given the same mean flux, women recover slightly more slowly than men. Further, the likely degradation in predictive performance on moving to a patient group with larger %TBSA than those in the data sample was studied, and shown to be small. Conclusion Modeling healing time is a complex statistical problem, with random effects due to multiple burn areas per individual, and censoring caused by patients missing hospital visits and undergoing surgery. This analysis applies state-of-the art statistical methods such as the bootstrap and permutation tests to a medical problem of topical interest. New medical findings are that age and %TBSA are not important predictors of healing time when the LDI results are known, whereas gender does influence recovery time, even when blood flow is controlled for. The conclusion regarding the palette is that an optimum three-color palette can be chosen 'automatically', but the optimum choice of a 5-color palette cannot be made solely by optimizing the percentage of correct diagnoses

Standardized and Individualized Parenteral Nutrition Mixtures in a Pediatric Home Parenteral Nutrition Population

OBJECTIVES: Studies evaluating efficacy or safety of standardized parenteral nutrition (PN) versus individualized PN are lacking. We aimed to assess effects on growth and safety of standardized PN compared with individualized PN in our Home PN group. METHODS: Descriptive cohort study in Dutch children on Home PN, in which standardized PN was compared with individualized PN. Both groups received similar micronutrient-supplementation. Primary outcome was growth over 2 years, secondary outcomes were electrolyte disturbances and biochemical abnormalities. Additionally, patients were matched for age to control for potential confounding characteristics. RESULTS: Fifty patients (50% girls, median age 6.5 years) were included, 16 (32%) received standardized PN mixtures. Age (11 vs 5 years), gestational age (39.2 vs 36.2 weeks) and PN duration (97 vs 39 months) were significantly higher in the group receiving standardized PN (P: ≤0.001; 0.027; 0.013 respectively). The standardized PN group showed an increase in weight-for-age (WFA), compared with a decrease in the individualized PN group (+0.38 SD vs -0.55 SD, P: 0.003). Electrolyte disturbances and biochemical abnormalities did not differ. After matching for age, resulting in comparable groups, no significant differences were demonstrated in WFA, height-for-age, or weight-for-height SD change. CONCLUSIONS: In children with chronic IF, over 2,5 years of age, standardized PN mixtures show a comparable effect on weight, height, and weight for height when compared with individualized PN mixtures. Also, standardized PN mixtures (with added micronutrients) seem noninferior to individualized PN mixtures in terms of electrolyte disturbances and basic biochemical abnormalities. Larger studies are needed to confirm these conclusions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Academical Medical Center medical ethics committee number W18_079 #18.103

Impact of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission: assessing the empirical evidence that repeated ivermectin mass treatments may lead to elimination/eradication in West-Africa

BACKGROUND: The Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa has been closed down at the end of 2002. All subsequent control will be transferred to the participating countries and will almost entirely be based on periodic mass treatment with ivermectin. This makes the question whether elimination of infection or eradication of onchocerciasis can be achieved using this strategy of critical importance. This study was undertaken to explore this issue. METHODS: An empirical approach was adopted in which a comprehensive analysis was undertaken of available data on the impact of more than a decade of ivermectin treatment on onchocerciasis infection and transmission. Relevant entomological and epidemiological data from 14 river basins in the OCP and one basin in Cameroon were reviewed. Areas were distinguished by frequency of treatment (6-monthly or annually), endemicity level and additional control measures such as vector control. Assessment of results were in terms of epidemiological and entomological parameters, and as a measure of inputs, therapeutic and geographical coverage rates were used. RESULTS: In all of the river basins studied, ivermectin treatment sharply reduced prevalence and intensity of infection. Significant transmission, however, is still ongoing in some basins after 10–12 years of ivermectin treatment. In other basins, transmission may have been interrupted, but this needs to be confirmed by in-depth evaluations. In one mesoendemic basin, where 20 rounds of four-monthly treatment reduced prevalence of infection to levels as low as 2–3%, there was significant recrudescence of infection within a few years after interruption of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Ivermectin treatment has been very successful in eliminating onchocerciasis as a public health problem. However, the results presented in this paper make it almost certain that repeated ivermectin mass treatment will not lead to the elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis from West Africa. Data on 6-monthly treatments are not sufficient to draw definitive conclusions

Framing Male Circumcision to Promote its Adoption in Different Settings

The effectiveness of male circumcision in preventing transmission of HIV from females to males has been established. Those who are now advocating its widespread use face many challenges in convincing policy-makers and the public of circumcision’s value. We suggest that frames are a useful lens for communicating public health messages that may help promote adoption of circumcision. Frames relate to how individuals and societies perceive and understand the world. Existing frames are often hard to shift, and should be borne in mind by advocates and program implementers as they attempt to promote male circumcision by invoking new frames. Frames differ across and within societies, and advocates must find ways of delivering resonant messages that take into account prior perceptions and use the most appropriate means of communicating the benefits and value of male circumcision to different audiences