A Bayesian spatio-temporal model of panel design data: airborne particle number concentration in Brisbane, Australia

This paper outlines a methodology for semi-parametric spatio-temporal modelling of data which is dense in time but sparse in space, obtained from a split panel design, the most feasible approach to covering space and time with limited equipment. The data are hourly averaged particle number concentration (PNC) and were collected, as part of the Ultrafine Particles from Transport Emissions and Child Health (UPTECH) project. Two weeks of continuous measurements were taken at each of a number of government primary schools in the Brisbane Metropolitan Area. The monitoring equipment was taken to each school sequentially. The school data are augmented by data from long term monitoring stations at three locations in Brisbane, Australia. Fitting the model helps describe the spatial and temporal variability at a subset of the UPTECH schools and the long-term monitoring sites. The temporal variation is modelled hierarchically with penalised random walk terms, one common to all sites and a term accounting for the remaining temporal trend at each site. Parameter estimates and their uncertainty are computed in a computationally efficient approximate Bayesian inference environment, R-INLA. The temporal part of the model explains daily and weekly cycles in PNC at the schools, which can be used to estimate the exposure of school children to ultrafine particles (UFPs) emitted by vehicles. At each school and long-term monitoring site, peaks in PNC can be attributed to the morning and afternoon rush hour traffic and new particle formation events. The spatial component of the model describes the school to school variation in mean PNC at each school and within each school ground. It is shown how the spatial model can be expanded to identify spatial patterns at the city scale with the inclusion of more spatial locations.Comment: Draft of this paper presented at ISBA 2012 as poster, part of UPTECH projec

Life and Death at the Edge of a Windy Cliff

The survival probability of a particle diffusing in the two dimensional domain $x>0$ near a ``windy cliff'' at $x=0$ is investigated. The particle dies upon reaching the edge of the cliff. In addition to diffusion, the particle is influenced by a steady ``wind shear'' with velocity $\vec v(x,y)=v\,{\rm sign}(y)\,\hat x$, \ie, no average bias either toward or away from the cliff. For this semi-infinite system, the particle survival probability decays with time as $t^{-1/4}$, compared to $t^{-1/2}$ in the absence of wind. Scaling descriptions are developed to elucidate this behavior, as well as the survival probability within a semi-infinite strip of finite width $|y|<w$ with particle absorption at $x=0$. The behavior in the strip geometry can be described in terms of Taylor diffusion, an approach which accounts for the crossover to the $t^{-1/4}$ decay when the width of the strip diverges. Supporting numerical simulations of our analytical results are presented.Comment: 13 pages, plain TeX, 5 figures available upon request to SR (submitted to J. Stat. Phys.

Induced vertical disparity effects on local and global stereopsis

Purpose: Although significant amounts of vertical misalignment could have a noticeable effect on visual performance, there is no conclusive evidence about the effect of very small amount of vertical disparity on stereopsis and binocular vision. Hence, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of induced vertical disparity on local and global stereopsis at near. Materials and Methods: Ninety participants wearing best-corrected refraction had local and global stereopsis tested with 0.5 and 1.0 prism diopter (Δ) vertical prism in front of their dominant and non-dominant eye in turn. This was compared to local and global stereopsis in the same subjects without vertical prism. Data were analyzed in SPSS.17 software using the independent samples T and the repeated measures ANOVA tests. Results: Induced vertical disparity decreases local and global stereopsis. This reduction is greater when vertical disparity is induced in front of the non-dominant eye and affects global more than local stereopsis. Repeated measures ANOVA showed differences in the mean stereopsis between the different measured states for local and global values. Local stereopsis thresholds were reduced by 10s of arc or less on average with 1.0Δ of induced vertical prism in front of either eye. However, global stereopsis thresholds were reduced by over 100s of arc by the same 1.0Δ of induced vertical prism. Conclusion: Induced vertical disparity affects global stereopsis thresholds by an order of magnitude (or a factor of 10) more than local stereopsis. Hence, using a test that measures global stereopsis such as the TNO is more sensitive to vertical misalignment than a test such as the Stereofly that measures local stereopsis. © 2014 Informa Healthcare USA, Inc. All rights reserved: reproduction in whole or part not permitted

Reconstruction of three-dimensional porous media using generative adversarial neural networks

To evaluate the variability of multi-phase flow properties of porous media at the pore scale, it is necessary to acquire a number of representative samples of the void-solid structure. While modern x-ray computer tomography has made it possible to extract three-dimensional images of the pore space, assessment of the variability in the inherent material properties is often experimentally not feasible. We present a novel method to reconstruct the solid-void structure of porous media by applying a generative neural network that allows an implicit description of the probability distribution represented by three-dimensional image datasets. We show, by using an adversarial learning approach for neural networks, that this method of unsupervised learning is able to generate representative samples of porous media that honor their statistics. We successfully compare measures of pore morphology, such as the Euler characteristic, two-point statistics and directional single-phase permeability of synthetic realizations with the calculated properties of a bead pack, Berea sandstone, and Ketton limestone. Results show that GANs can be used to reconstruct high-resolution three-dimensional images of porous media at different scales that are representative of the morphology of the images used to train the neural network. The fully convolutional nature of the trained neural network allows the generation of large samples while maintaining computational efficiency. Compared to classical stochastic methods of image reconstruction, the implicit representation of the learned data distribution can be stored and reused to generate multiple realizations of the pore structure very rapidly.Comment: 21 pages, 20 figure

Survival of a Diffusing Particle in a Transverse Shear Flow: A First-Passage Problem with Continuously Varying Persistence Exponent

We consider a particle diffusing in the y-direction, dy/dt=\eta(t), subject to a transverse shear flow in the x-direction, dx/dt=f(y), where x \ge 0 and x=0 is an absorbing boundary. We treat the class of models defined by f(y) = \pm v_{\pm}(\pm y)^\alpha where the upper (lower) sign refers to y>0 (y<0). We show that the particle survives with probability Q(t) \sim t^{-\theta} with \theta = 1/4, independent of \alpha, if v_{+}=v_{-}. If v_{+} \ne v_{-}, however, we show that \theta depends on both \alpha and the ratio v_{+}/v_{-}, and we determine this dependence.Comment: 4 page

Mapping aerial metal deposition in metropolitan areas from tree bark : a case study in Sheffield, England

We investigated the use of metals accumulated on tree bark for mapping their deposition across metropolitan Sheffield by sampling 642 trees of three common species. Mean concentrations of metals were generally an order of magnitude greater than in samples from a remote uncontaminated site. We found trivially small differences among tree species with respect to metal concentrations on bark, and in subsequent statistical analyses did not discriminate between them. We mapped the concentrations of As, Cd and Ni by lognormal universal kriging using parameters estimated by residual maximum likelihood ({\sc reml}). The concentrations of Ni and Cd were greatest close to a large steel works, their probable source, and declined markedly within 500~metres of it and from there more gradually over several kilometres. Arsenic was much more evenly distributed, probably as a result of locally mined coal burned in domestic fires for many years. Tree bark seems to integrate airborne pollution over time, and our findings show that sampling and analysing it are cost-effective means of mapping and identifying sources

Vertical Heterophoria and Postural Control in Nonspecific Chronic Low Back Pain

The purpose of this study was to test postural control during quiet standing in nonspecific chronic low back pain (LBP) subjects with vertical heterophoria (VH) before and after cancellation of VH; also to compare with healthy subjects with, and without VH. Fourteen subjects with LBP took part in this study. The postural performance was measured through the center of pressure displacements with a force platform while the subjects fixated on a target placed at either 40 or 200 cm, before and after VH cancellation with an appropriate prism. Their postural performance was compared to that of 14 healthy subjects with VH and 12 without VH (i.e. vertical orthophoria) studied previously in similar conditions. For LBP subjects, cancellation of VH with a prism improved postural performance. With respect to control subjects (with or without VH), the variance of speed of the center of pressure was higher, suggesting more energy was needed to stabilize their posture in quiet upright stance. Similarly to controls, LBP subjects showed higher postural sway when they were looking at a target at a far distance than at a close distance. The most important finding is that LBP subjects with VH can improve their performance after prism-cancellation of their VH. We suggest that VH reflects mild conflict between sensory and motor inputs involved in postural control i.e. a non optimal integration of the various signals. This could affect the performance of postural control and perhaps lead to pain. Nonspecific chronic back pain may results from such prolonged conflict

Perturbation theory for the effective diffusion constant in a medium of random scatterer

We develop perturbation theory and physically motivated resummations of the perturbation theory for the problem of a tracer particle diffusing in a random media. The random media contains point scatterers of density $\rho$ uniformly distributed through out the material. The tracer is a Langevin particle subjected to the quenched random force generated by the scatterers. Via our perturbative analysis we determine when the random potential can be approximated by a Gaussian random potential. We also develop a self-similar renormalisation group approach based on thinning out the scatterers, this scheme is similar to that used with success for diffusion in Gaussian random potentials and agrees with known exact results. To assess the accuracy of this approximation scheme its predictions are confronted with results obtained by numerical simulation.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, IOP (J. Phys. A. style

Continuum Derrida Approach to Drift and Diffusivity in Random Media

By means of rather general arguments, based on an approach due to Derrida that makes use of samples of finite size, we analyse the effective diffusivity and drift tensors in certain types of random medium in which the motion of the particles is controlled by molecular diffusion and a local flow field with known statistical properties. The power of the Derrida method is that it uses the equilibrium probability distribution, that exists for each {\em finite} sample, to compute asymptotic behaviour at large times in the {\em infinite} medium. In certain cases, where this equilibrium situation is associated with a vanishing microcurrent, our results demonstrate the equality of the renormalization processes for the effective drift and diffusivity tensors. This establishes, for those cases, a Ward identity previously verified only to two-loop order in perturbation theory in certain models. The technique can be applied also to media in which the diffusivity exhibits spatial fluctuations. We derive a simple relationship between the effective diffusivity in this case and that for an associated gradient drift problem that provides an interesting constraint on previously conjectured results.Comment: 18 pages, Latex, DAMTP-96-8