Global vulnerability hotspots: differences and agreement between international indicator-based assessments

Climate change impacts and their consequences are determined not only by the intensity and frequency of different climatic hazards but also by the vulnerability of the system, society or community exposed. While general agreement exists about the importance of assessing vulnerability to understand climate risks, there is still a tendency to neglect global and regional vulnerability patterns because they are hard to quantify, despite their value in informing adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Several approaches to quantifying global vulnerability exist. These differ in terms of the indicators they use and how they classify countries or regions into vulnerability classes. The paper presents the structure of selected approaches and explores two indices in depth. The aim of this paper is to assess the level of agreement between selected international indicator-based assessments of vulnerability, at the level of climate regions. Results suggest that the two major global vulnerability assessments analysed largely agree on the location of the most and least vulnerable regions when these assessments are aggregated to a regional scale using the IPCC’s climate regions. The paper then discusses the robustness of the information derived and its usefulness for adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Measuring progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change and hazards is key for various agencies and actors in order to be able to develop informed policies and strategies for managing climate risks and to promote enabling conditions for achieving the SDGs and building resilience

Chapter 5: Food Security

The current food system (production, transport, processing, packaging, storage, retail, consumption, loss and waste) feeds the great majority of world population and supports the livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Since 1961, food supply per capita has increased more than 30%, accompanied by greater use of nitrogen fertilisers (increase of about 800%) and water resources for irrigation (increase of more than 100%). However, an estimated 821 million people are currently undernourished, 151 million children under five are stunted, 613 million women and girls aged 15 to 49 suffer from iron deficiency, and 2 billion adults are overweight or obese. The food system is under pressure from non-climate stressors (e.g., population and income growth, demand for animal-sourced products), and from climate change. These climate and non-climate stresses are impacting the four pillars of food security (availability, access, utilisation, and stability)

Assessment of land tenure and management challenges of reducing climate change impacts in the southern highlands of Tanzania

Producing more food for a growing population in the context of changing climate, while at the same time combating poverty and food insecurity, is among the enormous challenge facing Sub-Saharan African. Such factors affect land which forms the most important resource that forms the main part of the mode of production among farm households. The climate change risks, reduce arable land and pose environmental degradation that increases vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts. To reduce climate change impacts and growing land shortage, smallholder farmers in the southern highlands of Tanzania have been shifting to farming systems that are restoring exhausted soils and are increasing food crop yields, household food security, and incomes. However, some of these activities have implication on long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies. This paper reviews land tenure challenges of land use management and development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. The aim is to assess land tenure and management strategies for reducing climate change challenges and increasing food security and environmental resilience. To acquire accurate and detailed information, combinations of both qualitative and quantitative approaches were used. The use of two approaches facilitated the triangulation and validation of information collected through various methods. The main focus was on the land tenure challenges in relation to climate variability and adaptation and mitigation measures. Quantitative data compiled and analyzed by using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and Microsoft Excel software while qualitative data analyzed during and after data collection using content analysis. The results indicate land fragmentation and high land pressure in the area. This affected crop diversification and implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures, especially for that involve utilization of the large size of land. Also the small size of land resulted in the substance farming with less incentive for commercial farming. The results from Pearson Chi-Square signify the size of owned land value 65.816 with df 44 and Asymp. Sig. (2-sided) .018.And borrowed value 17. 355, with df of 14 and Asymp. Sig. (2-sided) .238. The frequency of the small size of land is higher than the large size forming leaner distribution as divergent to the normal distribution curve. It was further revealed that land acquisition through inherited, redistributed by household heads with few buying have implication on land management and changes on land uses and affects development of mitigation measures. The absence of policy incentives for good land management, high population density and land shortage places excessive pressure on land that increases challenges on management strategies. Also land ownership has an influence on land management for example rented land receive less management incentive, while the owned land can have a long term management measures. A measure that enhances land management and carbon storage both above ground and below ground and induce more effective conservation of above and below-ground biodiversity are essential.Available in the Proceedings of the International Conference on Reducing Climate Change Challenges through Forestry and Other Land Use PracticesClimate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation (CCIAM) Programme funded through the Norwegian embassy in Tanzani

Analysis of climate variability, perceptions and coping strategies of Tanzanian coastal forest dependent communities

Climate variability and change are among the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Like in many other areas globally, the coastal communities of Tanzania have always been facing climatic variability at various time scales. Using focus group discussion and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate variability and change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by the selected coastal rural and peri-urban communities in Tanzania. The perception of climate variability and change is complemented with the time-series analysis of rainfall and temperature data from Julius Nyerere International Airport Met. station and Kisarawe using Instant Statistical Software. Results indicate that households are aware of climate variability and identify indicators of climate change and variability as being decreasing rainfall trends, increasing incidences of droughts, unpredictable rainfall patterns, disappearance of wetlands and failure to predict on-set of rainy season using traditional knowledge. Households primarily attribute reduced crop yields to changes in rainfall pattern and increasing incidences of drought leading to soil moisture stress. The implications are that the agriculture dependent households are now food insecure. As a way of coping to the observed changes, the coastal communities among others have shifted to production of high value horticultural crops and use of forest resources. Nevertheless, the increased use of forest resources is threatening the existence of coastal forests and contributes to the decline of forest resources and disappearance of wildlife in the forest reserves. It is concluded that the communities studied are aware of climate issues as revealed from perceived indicators of climate variability and changes. The results from statistical analysis of 30 years climatic data are consistent with community’s perception of climate variability and change. The study recommends examining the present coping strategies for the sustainability of the coastal forests and in designing of alternative adaptive strategies such as alternative energy options, crop diversification and environmental friendly activities such as beekeeping.This article is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2014.32020NORAD funded research programme—Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation (CCIAM

Knowledge assessment on the effects of climate change due to keeping livestock in urban and periurban areas of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

This paper discusses assessment results of the respondents who kept livestock in urban and periurban areas in the three municipalities of Kinondoni, Ilala, and Temeke in Dar es Salaam city region, if they had knowledge that their activities had an effect on climate change. Data show that over two thirds of the respondents did not think that the presence of solid waste, liquid waste, and pollution resulting from keeping livestock would have an effect on climate risks in the future. However, the respondents thought that presence of chemical pollution and land degradation due to keeping livestock in urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) would have an effect on climate change. Furthermore, the article stipulates actions that urban livestock keepers would take in the future for mitigating climate risks. In addition, the respondents in UPA thought that people keeping livestock would in the future incur additional costs because of climate risks. The respondents indicated that most livestock types kept in UPA would be vulnerable and sensitive to climate risks and proposed adaptation options to take in the future. It is paramount that time has come for the three Dar es Salaam municipalities of Kinondoni, Ilala and Temeke through their relevant departments (agriculture and livestock, health, planning, community development), among other things, to educate livestock owners on climate risks due to livestock keeping and how to lessen them in the future. Other municipalities in Tanzania and elsewhere could use these results.START, WMO, IPCC, UNE

Dynamics of land use and land cover changes in the Pugu and Kazimzumbwi forest reserves

Urban growth contributes to land use and land cover changes in protected forest reserves primarily through conversion of peri-urban areas into settlements, agriculture and unsustainable harvesting of ecosystem services to meet demands of the population in the peri-urban and urban areas. It has been widely argued that increased anthropogenic activities have altered the forest cover for Pugu and Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserves. Nonetheless, these arguments are little supported by quantitative data. A study on the dynamics of land use and cover changes in the Pugu and Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserves therefore investigated long-term changes that have occurred as a result of human activities in the areas for the periods 1985-1995 and 1995-2010. Landsat TM and ETM+ images were used to locate and quantify the changes using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Perceptions of local people on historical changes and drivers for the changes were also collected from three neighbouring villages and integrated in the assessment. The analysis was augmented by statistical analysis of 30 years historical rainfall and temperature records from Dar es Salaam and Kisarawe Climatic Stations. The study revealed remarkable decline in closed forest area in the latter period at -1.7 ha/year for Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserve (KFR) and -1.53 ha/year for Pugu Forest Reserve. The woodland variably decreased during the 1985 and 1995 period for both PFR and KFR but increased for PFR and decreased for KFR in the latter period. Unlike for closed forest and woodland, the cultivated land and built up area increased between the two periods for both forests reserves, while other covers variably increased or decreased between the years. The peoples’ perceptions and drivers for the changes are presented and discussed together with the land use and land cover change analysis. The study concludes that, there has been remarkable changes in land use and cover in the catchment and these require concerted actions to reverse the changes and enable the forest reserves contribute to REDD initiatives.CCIA

The use of indigenous knowledge in weather and climate prediction in Mahenge and Ismani wards, Tanzania

This paper discusses the role of indigenous knowledge (IK) in weather and climate prediction in Mahenge and Ismani wards focusing on Safari Road and Mahenge Mjini villages in Mahenge; and Uhominyi and Ismani Tarafani villages in Ismani. The perception of local communities about climate change is assessed. Local environmental and astronomical indicators used by local communities in weather and climate prediction are identified and documented. A team of five IK experts in both Mahenge and Ismani was identified and assigned the task of making continuous observations of the IK indicators and producing seasonal rainfall forecast for the purpose of testing the accuracy and reliability of IK. Key informant interviews and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) approaches were used in data collection regarding existing IK in weather forecast. A total of 120 respondents were interviewed in study Mahenge and Ismani wards respectively. A Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was used for data analysis. More than 83% of the respondents were found to be aware of climate change. Plant phenology, particularly that of mango trees was found to be the most used indicator in both wards. An assessment of the forecasted and observed 2011/2012 seasonal rainfall indicates comparable results.This article is also published in a Proceedings of the first Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation Programme Scientific Conference, 2012Royal Norwegian Governmen

A comparative study of flooding on food security of urban and rural households in Blantyre City and Chikwawa, Malawi

The impacts of climate-related risks on rural-urban linkages and the food systems on which urban settlements depend are poorly understood. This study analysed i) the climate trends for Blantyre City and rural Chikwawa district in Malawi, ii) the sources of foods typically consumed in these locations, iii) the implications of flooding following Tropical Cyclone Idai on urban and rural households interconnected agri-food systems and food security. Although floods were reported to cause both positive and negative effects on food production, food flows between rural and urban areas, and household food security; the negative effects (i.e., destruction of crops, homes and transport routes; higher food prices) outweighed the positive. In both rural and urban areas, poorer households were disproportionately affected resulting in reduced dietary diversity and food intake, shifts to consumption of cheaper foods, and requests for emergency food donations. Given the rapid rate of urbanisation, better understanding of food security amongst urban households is required. Following extreme events such as flooding, special attention needs to be directed to assessing and addressing food availability, access and consumption challenges in both urban and rural areas reliant on interconnected agricultural and food flows, and particularly in poor households

Climate change responses benefit from a global food system approach

A food system framework breaks down entrenched sectoral categories and existing adaptation and mitigation silos, presenting novel ways of assessing and enabling integrated climate change solutions from production to consumption.Peer reviewe