A Spatial Survey of Environmental Indicators for Kazakhstan: An Examination of Current Conditions and Future Needs

The Republic of Kazakhstan, located in Central Asia, has experienced many years of environmental degradation, largely as a result of the poor management of its significant natural resources. In this survey, data relating to different environmental factors are critically analysed in order to understand the state of the environment. It was found that: warming trends are seen in sensitive areas (e.g. the steppe and near glaciers); drying trends are seen where there is already water stress (e.g. the Aral Sea); air quality has been declining recently (following improvements on the decadal timescale) in major urban centres, particularly Almaty; water quality appears to be improving in some areas (e.g. important lakes in the Aktobe and Zhambyl regions); and levels of exposure to radioactivity are below internationally recommended levels (where data have been found). More generally, there is an issue with data availability and quality, which requires attention if Kazakhstan is going to make the best use of its increasing investment in environmental actions. Current policies are reviewed and recommendations are made for future interventions

Adapting agricultural water use to climate change in a post-Soviet context: challenges and opportunities in southeast Kazakhstan

The convergence of climate change and post-Soviet socio-economic and institutional transformations has been underexplored so far, as have the consequences of such convergence on crop agriculture in Central Asia. This paper provides a place-based analysis of constraints and opportunities for adaptation to climate change, with a specific focus on water use, in two districts in southeast Kazakhstan. Data were collected by 2 multi-stakeholder participatory workshops, 21 semi-structured in-depth interviews, and secondary statistical data. The present-day agricultural system is characterised by enduring Soviet-era management structures, but without state inputs that previously sustained agricultural productivity. Low margins of profitability on many privatised farms mean that attempts to implement integrated water management have produced water users associations unable to maintain and upgrade a deteriorating irrigation infrastructure. Although actors engage in tactical adaptation measures, necessary structural adaptation of the irrigation system remains difficult without significant public or private investments. Market-based water management models have been translated ambiguously to this region, which fails to encourage efficient water use and hinders adaptation to water stress. In addition, a mutual interdependence of informal networks and formal institutions characterises both state governance and everyday life in Kazakhstan. Such interdependence simultaneously facilitates operational and tactical adaptation, but hinders structural adaptation, as informal networks exist as a parallel system that achieves substantive outcomes while perpetuating the inertia and incapacity of the state bureaucracy. This article has relevance for critical understanding of integrated water management in practice and adaptation to climate change in post-Soviet institutional settings more broadly

Dry and Humid Periods Reconstructed from Tree Rings in the Former Territory of Sogdiana (Central Asia) and Their Socio-economic Consequences over the Last Millennium

One of the richest societies along the Silk Road developed in Sogdiana, located in present-day Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. This urban civilisation reached its greatest prosperity during the golden age of the Silk Road (sixth to ninth century ce). Rapid political and economic changes, accelerated by climatic variations, were observed during last millennium in this region. The newly developed tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation for the pastmillennium revealed a series of dry and wet stages. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), two dry periods occurred (900–1000 and 1200–1250), interrupted by a phase of wetter conditions. Distinct dry periods occurred around 1510–1650, 1750–1850, and 1920–1970, respectively. The juniper tree-ring record of moisture changes revealed that major dry and pluvial episodes were consistent with those indicated by hydroclimatic proxy data from adjacent areas. These climate fluctuations have had longand short term consequences for human history in the territory of former Sogdiana

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts