Real-time representations of the output gap

Methods are described for the appropriate use of data obtained and analysed in real time to represent the output gap. The methods employ cointegrating VAR techniques to model real-time measures and realizations of output series jointly. The model is used to mitigate the impact of data revisions; to generate appropriate forecasts that can deliver economically meaningful output trends and that can take into account the end-of-sample problems encountered in measuring these trends; and to calculate probability forecasts that convey in a clear way the uncertainties associated with the gap measures. The methods are applied to data for the United States 1965q4–2004q4, and the improvements over standard methods are illustrated

Which Bank is the "Central" Bank? An Application of Markov Theory to the Canadian Large Value Transfer System

We use a method similar to Google's PageRank procedure to rank banks in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). Along the way we obtain estimates of the payment processing speeds for the individual banks. These differences in processing speeds are essential for explaining why observed daily distributions of liquidity differ from the initial distributions, which are determined by the credit limits selected by banks.Payment, clearing, and settlement systems

Homelessness in Oxford : risks and opportunities across housing and homeless transitions

This report presents initial findings from CSI’s Homelessness in Oxford project. The project was designed by Dr. Garratt and Dr. Flaherty to be the first systematic attempt to track and understand people’s transitions into and out of different experiences of homelessness in Oxford. The project also explored the roles played by statutory and non-statutory homelessness prevention and relief services in Oxford

Potential Maximization and Coalition Government Formation

A model of coalition government formation is presented in which inefficient, non-minimal winning coalitions may form in Nash equilibrium. Predictions for five games are presented and tested experimentally. The experimental data support potential maximization as a refinement of Nash equilibrium. In particular, the data support the prediction that non-minimal winning coalitions occur when the distance between policy positions of the parties is small relative to the value of forming the government. These conditions hold in games 1, 3, 4 and 5, where subjects played their unique potential-maximizing strategies 91, 52, 82 and 84 percent of the time, respectively. In the remaining game (Game 2) experimental data support the prediction of a minimal winning coalition. Players A and B played their unique potential-maximizing strategies 84 and 86 percent of the time, respectively, and the predicted minimal-winning government formed 92 percent of the time (all strategy choices for player C conform with potential maximization in Game 2). In Games 1, 2, 4 and 5 over 98 percent of the observed Nash equilibrium outcomes were those predicted by potential maximization. Other solution concepts including iterated elimination of dominated strategies and strong/coalition proof Nash equilibrium are also tested.Coalition formation, Potential maximization, Nash equilibrium refinements, Experimental study, Minimal winning

#stillhungry : who is hungry, for how long, and why?

The #stillhungry report draws on two years of detailed statistical data from West Cheshire Foodbank, part of the UK-wide Trussell Trust Foodbank Network, and makes several recommendations for practical ways in which the need for the foodbank could be reduced

Trading places : worklessness dynamics in Greater Manchester

As part of the Local Economic Assessment process, a number of additional research projects were proposed by Greater Manchester (GM) local authorities into areas where data gaps exist or a greater understanding and analysis of a particular issue is required. One such area was the dynamics of the workless population in deprived neighbourhoods. There are neighbourhoods across GM where worklessness rates are persistently high. It has been suggested that in some areas this is partly the result of individuals moving out of deprived neighbourhoods to ‘better’ areas having found employment and then being replaced by workless individuals moving into the neighbourhood. Thus, people experience positive individual level employment outcomes whilst living in a neighbourhood, but the area may change little over time and may appear unresponsive to initiatives aimed at reducing worklessness. The analysis in this report breaks new ground in using individual level data on employment transitions and geographical movements taken from Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) records to shed light on neighbourhood level population dynamics

Understanding the worklessness dynamics and characteristics of deprived areas

Research was commissioned to use individual level data from the Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS) to try to shed light on some unanswered questions about the dynamics of worklessness in deprived areas. It has been suggested that in certain deprived neighbourhoods individuals make the transition from worklessness into employment and move away to less deprived areas. As these people move away they are replaced by inflows of other workless people who may themselves find employment and move on in a similar way. Therefore, although people experience positive individual level employment outcomes whilst living in a neighbourhood, the area may change little over time and may appear unresponsive to initiatives aimed at reducing worklessness. This research examines this issue and the associated policy implications. The research classifies deprived areas according to whether they were an ‘improver’ or ‘non-improver’ area, over the period 2004 to 2007, as well as identifying ‘transition’ areas (a subset of ‘non-improver’ areas characterised by high population churn). We have published a full list of these classifications for each Lower Super Output Area in Great Britain, to enable local partners to conduct their own follow-up research into the issues locally. This has been simultaneously published alongside this report

‘There’s nothing I can do to stop it’ : homelessness among autistic people in a British city

Autistic people appear to have a higher risk of becoming and remaining homeless than people without autism. This article is based on a wider research study exploring diverse homelessness experiences in Oxford, UK. Using life mapping, a visual research method, we gained verbal and visual accounts of participants’ housing and homeless histories. These accounts support past evidence of higher than expected levels of autism among homeless people, while highlighting for the first time specific, additional risks of homelessness among autistic people. This group also appeared to have fewer means to reduce the risk of homelessness, and faced multiple challenges to resolving their homelessness. Our findings extend existing understandings of autism and homelessness, and of the disabling practices that autistic people may face within the diversity of homeless experiences, while adding valuable biographic detail to the factors leading to homelessness and attempts to exit homelessness. We also discuss potential policy interventions

English indices of deprivation 2010 : technical report

The English indices of deprivation 2010 is the third release in a series of statistics produced to measure multiple forms of deprivation at the small spatial scale. It updates the indices of deprivation 2007 and 2004, retaining broadly the same methodology, domains and indicators. This report outlines the conceptualisation underpinning the model of multiple deprivation used and describes the indicators and domains that make up the indices

The importance of soil and vegetation characteristics for establishing ground nesting bee aggregations

Most bee species are ground-nesters, yet knowledge on the nesting behaviour of this diverse group remains sparse. Evidence on the effectiveness of ground-nesting bee species as crop pollinators is growing, but there is limited information on their nesting habits and preferences and how to manage habitats to enhance populations on farms. In this study, artificially prepared plots of bare soil were constructed with the aim to attract ground-nesting bees to nest in a commercial orchard in Kent, UK. Nine soil parameters were measured to determine their preferred soil properties: hydraulic conductivity, soil compaction, soil moisture, soil temperature, soil stoniness, soil organic matter, soil root biomass, soil texture and vegetation cover. Eighteen non-parasitic ground-nesting bee species (7 Andrena, 9 Lasioglossum, 1 Halictus and 1 Colletes spp.) were recorded in the study plots. Soil stoniness and soil temperature at 10cm depth were positively correlated, and vegetation cover and hydraulic conductivity were negatively correlated with the number of ground-nesting bees on the plots. We show that artificially created habitats can be exploited for nesting by several ground-nesting bee species. This study’s findings can inform management practices to enhance ground-nesting bee populations in agricultural and urban areas