A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead

This empirical paper compares the accuracy of six univariate methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short lead times are of particular interest as univariate methods are often replaced by multivariate methods for prediction beyond about six hours ahead. The methods considered include the recently proposed exponential smoothing method for double seasonality and a new method based on principal component analysis (PCA). The methods are compared using a time series of hourly demand for Rio de Janeiro and a series of half-hourly demand for England and Wales. The PCA method performed well, but, overall, the best results were achieved with the exponential smoothing method, leading us to conclude that simpler and more robust methods, which require little domain knowledge, can outperform more complex alternatives

B2B e-marketplaces in the airline industry:process drivers and performance indicators

Competitive pressures are increasing within and between different strategically oriented groups of airlines. This paper focuses on the level of efficiency improvements gained by using e-Marketplaces in the procurement process. Findings from a survey among 88 international airlines reveal that the use of Business-to-Business (B2B) e-Marketplaces does play different roles across the various airline groupings. Airlines that are involved in strategic alliances show higher joint procurement activities than airlines that are not involved in strategic alliances. However, alliances are probably viewed as loose arrangements and thus airlines may be reluctant to share information on procurement prices and processes with another airline that could also be acting as a competitor. The financial involvement in or initiation of e-Marketplaces by airlines is very low. Low cost airlines show high use of e-Marketplaces, but demonstrate little financial involvement in contrast. Overall, the categories of spares and repairs, office supplies, tools and ground support equipment (GSE) show the greatest potential for reducing costs and increasing procurement process efficiencies. The intense competitive pressures facing carriers will make their search for tools to realise even incremental savings and efficiency gains ever more urgent. There is evidence that e-Marketplaces are one tool to improve such performance indicators

Pseudotumoural soft tissue lesions of the hand and wrist: a pictorial review

Mimickers of soft tissue tumours in the hand and wrist are more frequent than true neoplastic lesions. Pseudotumours belong to a large and heterogeneous group of disorders, varying from normal anatomical variants, cystic lesions, post-traumatic lesions, skin lesions, inflammatory and infectious lesions, non-neoplastic vascular lesions, metabolic disorders (crystal deposition disease and amyloidosis) and miscellaneous disorders. Although the imaging approach to pseudotumoural lesions is often very similar to the approach to “true” soft tissue tumoral counterparts, further management of these lesions is different. Biopsy should be performed only in doubtful cases, when the diagnosis is unclear. Therefore, the radiologist plays a pivotal role in the diagnosis of these lesions. Awareness of the normal anatomy and existence and common imaging presentation of these diseases, in combination with relevant clinical findings (clinical history, age, location and skin changes), enables the radiologist to make the correct diagnosis in most cases, thereby limiting the need for invasive procedures

Legal linked data ecosystems and the rule of law

This chapter introduces the notions of meta-rule of law and socio-legal ecosystems to both foster and regulate linked democracy. It explores the way of stimulating innovative regulations and building a regulatory quadrant for the rule of law. The chapter summarises briefly (i) the notions of responsive, better and smart regulation; (ii) requirements for legal interchange languages (legal interoperability); (iii) and cognitive ecology approaches. It shows how the protections of the substantive rule of law can be embedded into the semantic languages of the web of data and reflects on the conditions that make possible their enactment and implementation as a socio-legal ecosystem. The chapter suggests in the end a reusable multi-levelled meta-model and four notions of legal validity: positive, composite, formal, and ecological