A natural constant predicts survival to maximum age

Information about the survival of species is important in many ecological applications. Yet, the estimation of a species’ natural mortality rate M remains a major problem in the management and conservation of wild populations, often circumvented by applying empirical equations that relate mortality to other traits that are more easily observed. We show that mean adult M can be approximated from the general law of decay if the average maximum age reached by individuals in a cohort is known. This is possible because the proportion P of individuals surviving to the average maximum age in a cohort is surprisingly similar across a wide range of examined species at 1.5%. The likely reason for the narrow range of P is a universal increase in the rate of mortality near the end of life, providing strong evidence that the evolutionary theories of ageing are the norm in natural populations

On the pile-up effect and priors for L-inf and M/K: response to a comment by Hordyk et al. on "A new approach for estimating stock status from length frequency data" Reply

We thank Hordyk et al. (2019) for pointing out a typographical error in one of our equations, which has meanwhile been fixed in the online version of Froese et al. (2018) and addressed in a corrigendum for the printed version. We agree with Hordyk et al. (2019) that accounting for the pile-up effect in binned LF samples may be appropriate in, for example, tropical species with continuous reproduction, and we have provided for such correction as an option in the latest version of the LBB software. We note, however, that this correction as well as the LBSPR method of Hordyk et al. (2016) proposed by Hordyk et al. (2019) as an alternative to LBB leads to strong overestimation of exploitation and underestimation of stock status when compared with independent assessments of 34 real stocks from temperate and subtropical areas. As for the points raised by Hordyk et al. (2019) with regard to default priors for Linf and M/K, we maintain that these defaults are adequate for a wide range of exploited species. They can be easily replaced by users if better information is available. Warnings not to use LBB if LF samples do not show the typical asymmetric pattern were already provided in the original LBB paper and are repeated here.</p

Learning from the peer review of ‘Estimating stock status from relative abundance and resilience’

This contribution presents the detailed responses to the peer-review of Froese et al. (2019) “Estimating stock status from relative abundance and resilience” (ICES J. Mar. Sci. 2019) which outlined a method called “AMSY” for inferring biomass trends for stocks for which only catch-per-unit-effort and limited ancillary (‘priors’) data are available. The responses emphasize that the required priors are legitimate and straightforward to obtain, thus, making AMSY a method of choice in data-sparse situations. This is also a good example of the role of peer-review in validating and improving science

Come, tell me how you live: Habitat suitability analysis for Ostrea edulis restoration

Against the background of the UN decade on ecosystem restoration and the new EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, and in the context of marine spatial planning and complex maritime user conflicts, reliable information on habitat suitability for large-scale restoration is an important prerequisite for implementing conservation management and for supporting successful, sustainable, and ecologically efficient restoration measures. In this study, habitat suitability was assessed using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) for the restoration of the European oyster, Ostrea edulis, in marine protected areas (MPAs) of the German Bight in the North Sea: Borkum Reef Ground (Borkum Riffgrund, BRG) and Sylt Outer Reef – Eastern German Bight (Sylter Außenriff, SAR). Based on site selection criteria, exclusion and suitability factors for the MCDA were defined. Results were integrated with the available geodata to produce habitat suitability maps for oyster restoration in the area of interest. Suitable as well as unsuitable habitats have been successfully identified for both MPAs: several hundred square kilometres (≥97.2% of BRG) or several thousand square kilometres (≥74.5% of SAR) were classified as ecologically and logistically suitable for oyster restoration measures in the respective MPAs. As oyster restoration is significantly limited by human activities (e.g. bottom trawl fisheries), the management of fisheries is an important prerequisite for successful oyster restoration in both MPAs. Results show that designated fishery management measures will increase the possibilities for oyster restoration. In BRG, our results correspond to the known historical distribution. In SAR, our results significantly exceed the historically known distribution. The habitat suitability analysis will facilitate decision-making regarding ocean use, and will reduce restoration costs through targeted management activities in areas of high suitability and expand species recovery by improving the survival of reintroduced individuals. The habitat suitability analysis procedure is easily adaptable for application to other areas, other species, or other habitat restoration projects, or to other conservation management settings. The software applied is open source and the suitability calculation is described in detail to inform wider applications

Estimating stock status from relative abundance and resilience

The Law of the Sea as well as regional and national laws and agreements require exploited populations or stocks to be managed so that they can produce maximum sustainable yields. However, exploitation level and stock status are unknown for most stocks because the data required for full stock assessments are missing. This study presents a new method (AMSY) that estimates relative population size when no catch data are available using time-series of catch-per-unit-effort or other relative abundance indices as the main input. AMSY predictions for relative stock size were not significantly different from the “true” values when compared with simulated data. Also, they were not significantly different from relative stock size estimated by data-rich models in 88% of the comparisons within 140 real stocks. Application of AMSY to 38 data-poor stocks showed the suitability of the method and led to the first assessments for 23 species. Given the lack of catch data as input, AMSY estimates of exploitation come with wide margins of uncertainty which may not be suitable for management. However, AMSY seems to be well suited for estimating productivity as well as relative stock size and may, therefore, aid in the management of data-poor stocks

A new approach for estimating stock status from length frequency data

This study presents a new method (LBB) for the analysis of length frequency data from commercial catches. LBB works for species that grow throughout their lives, such as most commercially-important fish and invertebrates, and requires no input in addition to length frequency data. It estimates asymptotic length, length at first capture, relative natural mortality, and relative fishing mortality. Standard fisheries equations can then be used to approximate current exploited biomass relative to unexploited biomass. In addition, these parameters allow the estimation of length at first capture that would maximize catch and biomass for a given fishing effort, and estimation of a proxy for the relative biomass capable of producing maximum sustainable yields. Relative biomass estimates of LBB were not significantly different from the “true” values in simulated data and were similar to independent estimates from full stock assessments. LBB also presents a new indicator for assessing whether an observed size structure is indicative of a healthy stock. LBB results will obviously be misleading if the length frequency data do not represent the size composition of the exploited size range of the stock or if length frequencies resulting from the interplay of growth and mortality are masked by strong recruitment pulses

Coherent Assessments of Europe’s Marine Fishes Show Regional Divergence and Megafauna Loss

Europe has a long tradition of exploiting marine fishes and is promoting marine economic activity through its Blue Growth strategy. This increase in anthropogenic pressure, along with climate change, threatens the biodiversity of fishes and food security. Here, we examine the conservation status of 1,020 species of European marine fishes and identify factors that contribute to their extinction risk. Large fish species (greater than 1.5 m total length) are most at risk; half of these are threatened with extinction, predominantly sharks, rays and sturgeons. This analysis was based on the latest International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) European regional Red List of marine fishes, which was coherent with assessments of the status of fish stocks carried out independently by fisheries management agencies: no species classified by IUCN as threatened were considered sustainable by these agencies. A remarkable geographic divergence in stock status was also evident: in northern Europe, most stocks were not overfished, whereas in the Mediterranean Sea, almost all stocks were overfished. As Europe proceeds with its sustainable Blue Growth agenda, two main issues stand out as needing priority actions in relation to its marine fishes: the conservation of marine fish megafauna and the sustainability of Mediterranean fish stocks

Elevated trawling inside protected areas undermines conservation outcomes in a global fishing hot spot

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly used as a primary tool to conserve biodiversity. This is particularly relevant in heavily exploited fisheries hot spots such as Europe, where MPAs now cover 29% of territorial waters, with unknown effects on fishing pressure and conservation outcomes. We investigated industrial trawl fishing and sensitive indicator species in and around 727 MPAs designated by the European Union. We found that 59% of MPAs are commercially trawled, and average trawling intensity across MPAs is at least 1.4-fold higher as compared with nonprotected areas. Abundance of sensitive species (sharks, rays, and skates) decreased by 69% in heavily trawled areas. The widespread industrial exploitation of MPAs undermines global biodiversity conservation targets, elevating recent concerns about growing human pressures on protected areas worldwide

Reliable growth estimation from mark–recapture tagging data in elasmobranchs

The somatic growth of individuals governs many aspects of a species’ life history and is an important parameter in the assessment of populations. Population growth parameters are typically derived by relating the length of individuals to their age, with ages commonly estimated from growth bands formed in calcified structures such as the vertebrae or dorsal fin spines. However, routinely utilized vertebrae aging methods may not be reliable for many elasmobranchs (sharks, rays and skates), motivating alternative approaches. This study evaluates the performance of seven techniques that estimate von Bertalanffy growth parameters from mark-recapture tagging data. Evaluation of the performance was done by applying each estimation technique to: 1) simulated error-free mark-recapture tagging data and comparing the estimated versus known simulated growth parameters; 2) simulated mark-recapture data considering individual growth variability, measurement error, different length-at-capture distributions, as well as different sample sizes and comparing the estimated versus known simulated growth parameters; and 3) mark-recapture data of 14 North Atlantic elasmobranch stocks and discussing the estimated growth parameters with respect to biological plausibility and conventional length-at-age data. All investigated estimation techniques returned the known simulated growth parameters when the data is without error. When errors are introduced in the simulation, Bayesian implementations of Fabens' (BFa) and Francis’ (BFr) methods were found to be most reliable. For the observed mark-recapture data only BFa gave biologically plausible results for all 14 elasmobranch stocks. Overall, the results suggest that BFa is a reliable alternative to conventional length-at-age methods for estimating growth parameters, especially in data-limited situations which commonly occur with elasmobranchs. The only prior information needed is limited expert knowledge on maximum length in the population or stock in question. A user guide is provided to facilitate application of the method.ISSN:0165-783