75th Anniversary of ‘Existence of Electromagnetic-Hydrodynamic Waves’

We have recently passed the 75th anniversary of one of the most important results in solar and space physics: Hannes Alfv\'en's discovery of Alfv\'en waves and the Alfv\'en speed. To celebrate the anniversary, this article recounts some major episodes in the history of MHD waves. Following an initially cool reception, Alfv\'en's ideas were propelled into the spotlight by Fermi's work on cosmic rays, the new mystery of coronal heating and, as scientific perception of interplanetary space shifted dramatically and the space race started, detection of Alfv\'en waves in the solar wind. From then on, interest in MHD waves boomed, laying the foundations for modern remote observations of MHD waves in the Sun, coronal seismology and some of today's leading theories of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. In 1970, Alfv\'en received the Nobel Prize for his work in MHD, including these discoveries. The article concludes with some reflection about what the history implies about the way we do science, especially the advantages and pitfalls of idealised mathematical models.Comment: 10 pages, accepted by Solar Physic

The Number Of Magnetic Null Points In The Quiet Sun Corona

The coronal magnetic field above a particular photospheric region will vanish at a certain number of points, called null points. These points can be found directly in a potential field extrapolation or their density can be estimated from Fourier spectrum of the magnetogram. The spectral estimate, which assumes that the extrapolated field is random, homogeneous and has Gaussian statistics, is found here to be relatively accurate for quiet Sun magnetograms from SOHO's MDI. The majority of null points occur at low altitudes, and their distribution is dictated by high wavenumbers in the Fourier spectrum. This portion of the spectrum is affected by Poisson noise, and as many as five-sixths of null points identified from a direct extrapolation can be attributed to noise. The null distribution above 1500 km is found to depend on wavelengths that are reliably measured by MDI in either its low-resolution or high-resolution mode. After correcting the spectrum to remove white noise and compensate for the modulation transfer function we find that a potential field extrapolation contains, on average, one magnetic null point, with altitude greater than 1.5 Mm, above every 322 square Mm patch of quiet Sun. Analysis of 562 quiet Sun magnetograms spanning the two latest solar minimum shows that the null point density is relatively constant with roughly 10% day-to-day variation. At heights above 1.5 Mm, the null point density decreases approximately as the inverse cube of height. The photospheric field in the quiet Sun is well approximated as that from discrete elements with mean flux 1.0e19 Mx distributed randomly with density n=0.007 per square Mm

Review article: MHD wave propagation near coronal null points of magnetic fields

We present a comprehensive review of MHD wave behaviour in the neighbourhood of coronal null points: locations where the magnetic field, and hence the local Alfven speed, is zero. The behaviour of all three MHD wave modes, i.e. the Alfven wave and the fast and slow magnetoacoustic waves, has been investigated in the neighbourhood of 2D, 2.5D and (to a certain extent) 3D magnetic null points, for a variety of assumptions, configurations and geometries. In general, it is found that the fast magnetoacoustic wave behaviour is dictated by the Alfven-speed profile. In a $\beta=0$ plasma, the fast wave is focused towards the null point by a refraction effect and all the wave energy, and thus current density, accumulates close to the null point. Thus, null points will be locations for preferential heating by fast waves. Independently, the Alfven wave is found to propagate along magnetic fieldlines and is confined to the fieldlines it is generated on. As the wave approaches the null point, it spreads out due to the diverging fieldlines. Eventually, the Alfven wave accumulates along the separatrices (in 2D) or along the spine or fan-plane (in 3D). Hence, Alfven wave energy will be preferentially dissipated at these locations. It is clear that the magnetic field plays a fundamental role in the propagation and properties of MHD waves in the neighbourhood of coronal null points. This topic is a fundamental plasma process and results so far have also lead to critical insights into reconnection, mode-coupling, quasi-periodic pulsations and phase-mixing.Comment: 34 pages, 5 figures, invited review in Space Science Reviews => Note this is a 2011 paper, not a 2010 pape

Probabilistic solar wind and geomagnetic forecasting using an analogue ensemble or "Similar Day" approach

Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecasting of near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar wind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scale solar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remains a need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In this study we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or “similar day”, approach that was developed for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is that past variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide a good estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEn forecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. We show that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed and density when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magnetic field [ BNBN ] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. In general, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6 – 12 hours of observations. Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast for solar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hours to around four days. For BNBN , which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn only provides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictability of this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods. We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days. We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-wind and geomagnetic conditions

The variation of geomagnetic storm duration with intensity

Variability in the near-Earth solar wind conditions can adversely affect a number of ground- and space-based technologies. Such space-weather impacts on ground infrastructure are expected to increase primarily with geomagnetic storm intensity, but also storm duration, through time-integrated effects. Forecasting storm duration is also necessary for scheduling the resumption of safe operating of affected infrastructure. It is therefore important to understand the degree to which storm intensity and duration are correlated. The long-running, global geomagnetic disturbance index, aa , has recently been recalibrated to account for the geographic distribution of the component stations. We use this aaH index to analyse the relationship between geomagnetic storm intensity and storm duration over the past 150 years, further adding to our understanding of the climatology of geomagnetic activity. Defining storms using a peak-above-threshold approach, we find that more intense storms have longer durations, as expected, though the relationship is nonlinear. The distribution of durations for a given intensity is found to be approximately log-normal. On this basis, we provide a method to probabilistically predict storm duration given peak intensity, and test this against the aaH dataset. By considering the average profile of storms with a superposed-epoch analysis, we show that activity becomes less recurrent on the 27-day timescale with increasing intensity. This change in the dominant physical driver, and hence average profile, of geomagnetic activity with increasing threshold is likely the reason for the nonlinear behaviour of storm duration

Achievements and Challenges in the Science of Space Weather

In June 2016 a group of 40 space weather scientists attended the workshop on Scientific Foundations of Space Weather at the International Space Science Institute in Bern. In this lead article to the volume based on the talks and discussions during the workshop we review some of main past achievements in the field and outline some of the challenges that the science of space weather is facing today and in the future.Peer reviewe

Relativistic Laser-Matter Interaction and Relativistic Laboratory Astrophysics

The paper is devoted to the prospects of using the laser radiation interaction with plasmas in the laboratory relativistic astrophysics context. We discuss the dimensionless parameters characterizing the processes in the laser and astrophysical plasmas and emphasize a similarity between the laser and astrophysical plasmas in the ultrarelativistic energy limit. In particular, we address basic mechanisms of the charged particle acceleration, the collisionless shock wave and magnetic reconnection and vortex dynamics properties relevant to the problem of ultrarelativistic particle acceleration.Comment: 58 pages, 19 figure

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.Peer reviewe