Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California

Understanding the uncertainty in the projected impacts of climate change on hydrology will help decision-makers interpret the confidence in different projected future hydrologic impacts. We focus on California, which is vulnerable to hydrologic impacts of climate change. We statistically bias correct and downscale temperature and precipitation projections from 10 GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. These GCM simulations include a control period (unchanging CO2 and other forcing) and perturbed period (1%/year CO2 increase). We force a hydrologic model with the downscaled GCM data to generate streamflow at strategic points. While the different GCMs predict significantly different regional climate responses to increasing atmospheric CO2, hydrological responses are robust across models: decreases in summer low flows and increases in winter flows, and a shift of flow to earlier in the year. Summer flow decreases become consistent across models at lower levels of greenhouse gases than increases in winter flows do

Rotation symmetry axes and the quality index in a 3D octahedral parallel robot manipulator system

The geometry of a 3D octahedral parallel robot manipulator system is specified in terms of two rigid octahedral structures (the fixed and moving platforms) and six actuation legs. The symmetry of the system is exploited to determine the behaviour of (a new version of) the quality index for various motions. The main results are presented graphically

Using ITIL to Improve IT Services

This paper examines the adoption and implementation of the Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL). Specifically, interviews with a CIO, as well as literature from the ITIL Official site and from the practitioner’s journals are consulted in order to determine whether the best practices contained in the ITIL framework may improve the management of information technology (IT) services, as well as assist in promoting the alignment of Business and the IT Function within the organization. A conceptual model is proposed which proposes a two-way relationship between IT and the provision of IT Services, with ITIL positioned as an intervening variable

Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by “center timing” (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1–4 decades or 4–8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5°. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between −2°C and −4°C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 m are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961–1990

Mechanical characterization of a customized decellularized scaffold for vascular tissue engineering.

Several challenges persist when attempting to utilize decellularized tissue as a scaffold for vascular tissue engineering. Namely: poor cell infiltration/migration, excessive culture times associated with repopulating the scaffolds, and the achievement of a quiescent medial layer. In an attempt to create an optimum vascular scaffold, we customized the properties of decellularized porcine carotid arteries by: (i) creating cavities within the medial layer to allow direct injection of cells, and (ii) controlling the amount of collagen digestion to increase the porosity. Histological examination of our customized scaffold revealed a highly porous tissue structure containing consistent medial cavities running longitudinally through the porous scaffold wall. Mechanical testing of the customized scaffold showed that our minimal localized disruption to the ECM does not have a detrimental effect on the bulk mechanical response of the tissue. The results demonstrate that an increased stiffness and reduced distensibility occurs after decellularization when compared to the native tissue, however post scaffold customization we can revert the scaffold tensile properties back to that of the native tissue. This most noteworthy result occurs in the elastin dominant phase of the tensile response of the scaffold, indicating that no disruption has occurred to the elastin network by our decellularization and customization techniques. Additionally, the bulk seeding potential of the customized scaffold was demonstrated by direct injection of human smooth muscle cells through the medial cavities. The optimum cell dispersion was observed in the highest porosity scaffold, with large cell numbers retained within the medial layer after 24 h static culture. In summary, this study presents a novel customized decellularized vascular scaffold that has the capability of bulk seeding the media, and in tandem to this method, the porosity of the scaffold has been increased without compromising the mechanical integrity

Environmental limits on the non-resonant cosmic-ray current-driven instability

We investigate the so-called non-resonant cosmic-ray streaming instability, first discussed by Bell (2004). The extent to which thermal damping and ion-neutral collisions reduce the growth of this instability is calculated. Limits on the growth of the non-resonant mode in SN1006 and RX J1713.7-3946 are presented.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, contributed talk at the workshop: High Energy Phenomena in Relativistic Outflows (HEPRO), Dublin, 24-28 September 200

Shunted Piezoelectric Vibration Damping Analysis Including Centrifugal Loading Effects

Excessive vibration of turbomachinery blades causes high cycle fatigue problems which require damping treatments to mitigate vibration levels. One method is the use of piezoelectric materials as passive or active dampers. Based on the technical challenges and requirements learned from previous turbomachinery rotor blades research, an effort has been made to investigate the effectiveness of a shunted piezoelectric for the turbomachinery rotor blades vibration control, specifically for a condition with centrifugal rotation. While ample research has been performed on the use of a piezoelectric material with electric circuits to attempt to control the structural vibration damping, very little study has been done regarding rotational effects. The present study attempts to fill this void. Specifically, the objectives of this study are: (a) to create and analyze finite element models for harmonic forced response vibration analysis coupled with shunted piezoelectric circuits for engine blade operational conditions, (b) to validate the experimental test approaches with numerical results and vice versa, and (c) to establish a numerical modeling capability for vibration control using shunted piezoelectric circuits under rotation. Study has focused on a resonant damping control using shunted piezoelectric patches on plate specimens. Tests and analyses were performed for both non-spinning and spinning conditions. The finite element (FE) shunted piezoelectric circuit damping simulations were performed using the ANSYS Multiphysics code for the resistive and inductive circuit piezoelectric simulations of both conditions. The FE results showed a good correlation with experimental test results. Tests and analyses of shunted piezoelectric damping control, demonstrating with plate specimens, show a great potential to reduce blade vibrations under centrifugal loading

Dark-ages reionization & galaxy formation simulation IV: UV luminosity functions of high-redshift galaxies

In this paper we present calculations of the UV luminosity function from the Dark-ages Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulations (DRAGONS) project, which combines N-body, semi-analytic and semi-numerical modelling designed to study galaxy formation during the Epoch of Reionization. Using galaxy formation physics including supernova feedback, the model naturally reproduces the UV LFs for high-redshift star-forming galaxies from $z{\sim}5$ through to $z{\sim}10$. We investigate the luminosity--star formation rate (SFR) relation, finding that variable SFR histories of galaxies result in a scatter around the median relation of $0.1$--$0.3$ dex depending on UV luminosity. We find close agreement between the model and observationally derived SFR functions. We use our calculated luminosities to investigate the luminosity function below current detection limits, and the ionizing photon budget for reionization. We predict that the slope of the UV LF remains steep below current detection limits and becomes flat at $M_\mathrm{UV}{\gtrsim}{-14}$. We find that $48$ ($17$) per cent of the total UV flux at $z{\sim}6$ ($10$) has been detected above an observational limit of $M_\mathrm{UV}{\sim}{-17}$, and that galaxies fainter than $M_\mathrm{UV}{\sim}{-17}$ are the main source of ionizing photons for reionization. We investigate the luminosity--stellar mass relation, and find a correlation for galaxies with $M_\mathrm{UV}{<}{-14}$ that has the form $M_*{\propto}10^{-0.47M_\mathrm{UV}}$, in good agreement with observations, but which flattens for fainter galaxies. We determine the luminosity--halo mass relation to be $M_\mathrm{vir}{\propto}10^{-0.35M_\mathrm{UV}}$, finding that galaxies with $M_\mathrm{UV}{=}{-20}$ reside in host dark matter haloes of $10^{11.0\pm 0.1}\mathrm{M_\odot}$ at $z{\sim}6$, and that this mass decreases towards high redshift.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRA

Large deviations for a damped telegraph process

In this paper we consider a slight generalization of the damped telegraph process in Di Crescenzo and Martinucci (2010). We prove a large deviation principle for this process and an asymptotic result for its level crossing probabilities (as the level goes to infinity). Finally we compare our results with the analogous well-known results for the standard telegraph process

Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping

When applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diuWhen applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) can become physically unrealistic. While causes are not thoroughly explored, there is a strong relationship between GCM biases in snow albedo feedback during snowmelt and bias correction resulting in unrealistic DTR values. We propose a technique to bias correct DTR, based on comparing observations and GCM historic simulations, and combine that with either bias correcting daily maximum temperatures and calculating daily minimum temperatures or vice versa. By basing the bias correction on a base period of 1961–1980 and validating it during a test period of 1981–1999, we show that bias correcting DTR and maximum daily temperature can produce more accurate estimations of daily temperature extremes while avoiding the pathological cases of unrealistic DTR values.rnal temperature range (DTR) can become physically unrealistic. While causes are not thoroughly explored, there is a strong relationship between GCM biases in snow albedo feedback during snowmelt and bias correction resulting in unrealistic DTR values. We propose a technique to bias correct DTR, based on comparing observations and GCM historic simulations, and combine that with either bias correcting daily maximum temperatures and calculating daily minimum temperatures or vice versa. By basing the bias correction on a base period of 1961–1980 and validating it during a test period of 1981–1999, we show that bias correcting DTR and maximum daily temperature can produce more accurate estimations of daily temperature extremes while avoiding the pathological cases of unrealistic DTR values