Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?

We study potential drivers for a large cross-section of commodity futures. Unlike previous studies, we examine the effect of monthly drivers on daily returns using mixed- frequency Granger causality tests. We find real economic activity as a main driver on a monthly basis, whereas financial variables seem to affect returns at daily frequency. The linkages are time-varying for various stages of the financialization of commodity markets with an overall dissipating impact in the recent period of de-financialization. As our results strongly differ from traditional low-frequency Granger causality tests under the temporal aggregation of futures returns, we show the economic value of accessing infor- mation at a higher frequency in an out-of-sample trading study. Our findings emphasize the importance of using mixed-frequency techniques to uncover relationships between monthly-published macroeconomic variables and commodity prices

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?

We study potential drivers for a large cross-section of commodity futures. Unlike previous studies, we examine the effect of monthly drivers on daily returns using mixed- frequency Granger causality tests. We find real economic activity as a main driver on a monthly basis, whereas financial variables seem to affect returns at daily frequency. The linkages are time-varying for various stages of the financialization of commodity markets with an overall dissipating impact in the recent period of de-financialization. As our results strongly differ from traditional low-frequency Granger causality tests under the temporal aggregation of futures returns, we show the economic value of accessing infor- mation at a higher frequency in an out-of-sample trading study. Our findings emphasize the importance of using mixed-frequency techniques to uncover relationships between monthly-published macroeconomic variables and commodity prices

Non-Standard Errors

URL des documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.cnrs.fr/publications/Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2021.33 - ISSN : 1955-611XVoir aussi ce document de travail sur SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3981597In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants

MedShapeNet -- A Large-Scale Dataset of 3D Medical Shapes for Computer Vision

16 pagesPrior to the deep learning era, shape was commonly used to describe the objects. Nowadays, state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms in medical imaging are predominantly diverging from computer vision, where voxel grids, meshes, point clouds, and implicit surface models are used. This is seen from numerous shape-related publications in premier vision conferences as well as the growing popularity of ShapeNet (about 51,300 models) and Princeton ModelNet (127,915 models). For the medical domain, we present a large collection of anatomical shapes (e.g., bones, organs, vessels) and 3D models of surgical instrument, called MedShapeNet, created to facilitate the translation of data-driven vision algorithms to medical applications and to adapt SOTA vision algorithms to medical problems. As a unique feature, we directly model the majority of shapes on the imaging data of real patients. As of today, MedShapeNet includes 23 dataset with more than 100,000 shapes that are paired with annotations (ground truth). Our data is freely accessible via a web interface and a Python application programming interface (API) and can be used for discriminative, reconstructive, and variational benchmarks as well as various applications in virtual, augmented, or mixed reality, and 3D printing. Exemplary, we present use cases in the fields of classification of brain tumors, facial and skull reconstructions, multi-class anatomy completion, education, and 3D printing. In future, we will extend the data and improve the interfaces. The project pages are: https://medshapenet.ikim.nrw/ and https://github.com/Jianningli/medshapenet-feedbac

MedShapeNet -- A Large-Scale Dataset of 3D Medical Shapes for Computer Vision

16 pagesPrior to the deep learning era, shape was commonly used to describe the objects. Nowadays, state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms in medical imaging are predominantly diverging from computer vision, where voxel grids, meshes, point clouds, and implicit surface models are used. This is seen from numerous shape-related publications in premier vision conferences as well as the growing popularity of ShapeNet (about 51,300 models) and Princeton ModelNet (127,915 models). For the medical domain, we present a large collection of anatomical shapes (e.g., bones, organs, vessels) and 3D models of surgical instrument, called MedShapeNet, created to facilitate the translation of data-driven vision algorithms to medical applications and to adapt SOTA vision algorithms to medical problems. As a unique feature, we directly model the majority of shapes on the imaging data of real patients. As of today, MedShapeNet includes 23 dataset with more than 100,000 shapes that are paired with annotations (ground truth). Our data is freely accessible via a web interface and a Python application programming interface (API) and can be used for discriminative, reconstructive, and variational benchmarks as well as various applications in virtual, augmented, or mixed reality, and 3D printing. Exemplary, we present use cases in the fields of classification of brain tumors, facial and skull reconstructions, multi-class anatomy completion, education, and 3D printing. In future, we will extend the data and improve the interfaces. The project pages are: https://medshapenet.ikim.nrw/ and https://github.com/Jianningli/medshapenet-feedbac

MedShapeNet -- A Large-Scale Dataset of 3D Medical Shapes for Computer Vision

16 pagesPrior to the deep learning era, shape was commonly used to describe the objects. Nowadays, state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms in medical imaging are predominantly diverging from computer vision, where voxel grids, meshes, point clouds, and implicit surface models are used. This is seen from numerous shape-related publications in premier vision conferences as well as the growing popularity of ShapeNet (about 51,300 models) and Princeton ModelNet (127,915 models). For the medical domain, we present a large collection of anatomical shapes (e.g., bones, organs, vessels) and 3D models of surgical instrument, called MedShapeNet, created to facilitate the translation of data-driven vision algorithms to medical applications and to adapt SOTA vision algorithms to medical problems. As a unique feature, we directly model the majority of shapes on the imaging data of real patients. As of today, MedShapeNet includes 23 dataset with more than 100,000 shapes that are paired with annotations (ground truth). Our data is freely accessible via a web interface and a Python application programming interface (API) and can be used for discriminative, reconstructive, and variational benchmarks as well as various applications in virtual, augmented, or mixed reality, and 3D printing. Exemplary, we present use cases in the fields of classification of brain tumors, facial and skull reconstructions, multi-class anatomy completion, education, and 3D printing. In future, we will extend the data and improve the interfaces. The project pages are: https://medshapenet.ikim.nrw/ and https://github.com/Jianningli/medshapenet-feedbac

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants