How agency models inspire large scale participatory planning and its evaluation

International audienceWe describe how three models, for sustainable change, human agency in collective resource management, and socio-environmental systems, have been used to design a protocol and the tools for a large scale (1500 participants, 35 villages) multi-level participatory process held in Africa for Integrated Natural Resource Management, through the European Project Afromaison. The process especially combines a common action model to support proposals by stakeholders, an integration matrix to build coherent plans, a role playing game design process, and a method to combine planning and playing to engage into the plans. It has also inspired the design of the attached monitoring and evaluation process. We describe the process in two countries, Ethiopia and Uganda, present the theoretical bases of the evaluation framework using the ENCORE paradigm and the implemented methodology transferred to local evaluators. We introduce some results and propose comments on potential learning back to the modelling community

Ground-based follow-up observations of TRAPPIST-1 transits in the near-infrared

The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system is a favorable target for the atmospheric characterization of temperate earth-sized exoplanets by means of transmission spectroscopy with the forthcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). A possible obstacle to this technique could come from the photospheric heterogeneity of the host star that could affect planetary signatures in the transit transmission spectra. To constrain further this possibility, we gathered an extensive photometric data set of 25 TRAPPIST-1 transits observed in the near-IR J band (1.2 $\mu$m) with the UKIRT and the AAT, and in the NB2090 band (2.1 $\mu$m) with the VLT during the period 2015-2018. In our analysis of these data, we used a special strategy aiming to ensure uniformity in our measurements and robustness in our conclusions. We reach a photometric precision of $\sim0.003$ (RMS of the residuals), and we detect no significant temporal variations of transit depths of TRAPPIST-1 b, c, e, and g over the period of three years. The few transit depths measured for planets d and f hint towards some level of variability, but more measurements will be required for confirmation. Our depth measurements for planets b and c disagree with the stellar contamination spectra originating from the possible existence of bright spots of temperature 4500 K. We report updated transmission spectra for the six inner planets of the system which are globally flat for planets b and g and some structures are seen for planets c, d, e, and f.Comment: accepted for publication in MNRA

Global analysis of the TRAPPIST Ultra-Cool Dwarf Transit Survey

ABSTRACT We conducted a global analysis of the TRAPPIST Ultra-Cool Dwarf Transit Survey – a prototype of the SPECULOOS transit search conducted with the TRAPPIST-South robotic telescope in Chile from 2011 to 2017 – to estimate the occurrence rate of close-in planets such as TRAPPIST-1b orbiting ultra-cool dwarfs. For this purpose, the photometric data of 40 nearby ultra-cool dwarfs were reanalysed in a self-consistent and fully automated manner starting from the raw images. The pipeline developed specifically for this task generates differential light curves, removes non-planetary photometric features and stellar variability, and searches for transits. It identifies the transits of TRAPPIST-1b and TRAPPIST-1c without any human intervention. To test the pipeline and the potential output of similar surveys, we injected planetary transits into the light curves on a star-by-star basis and tested whether the pipeline is able to detect them. The achieved photometric precision enables us to identify Earth-sized planets orbiting ultra-cool dwarfs as validated by the injection tests. Our planet-injection simulation further suggests a lower limit of 10 per cent on the occurrence rate of planets similar to TRAPPIST-1b with a radius between 1 and 1.3 R⊕ and the orbital period between 1.4 and 1.8 d.</jats:p

TRAPPIST-1: Global results of the Spitzer Exploration Science Program Red Worlds

With more than 1000 hours of observation from Feb 2016 to Oct 2019, the Spitzer Exploration Program Red Worlds (ID: 13067, 13175 and 14223) exclusively targeted TRAPPIST-1, a nearby (12pc) ultracool dwarf star orbited by seven transiting Earth-sized planets, all well-suited for a detailed atmospheric characterization with the upcoming JWST. In this paper, we present the global results of the project. We analyzed 88 new transits and combined them with 100 previously analyzed transits, for a total of 188 transits observed at 3.6 or 4.5 $\mu$m. We also analyzed 29 occultations (secondary eclipses) of planet b and eight occultations of planet c observed at 4.5 $\mu$m to constrain the brightness temperatures of their daysides. We identify several orphan transit-like structures in our Spitzer photometry, but all of them are of low significance. We do not confirm any new transiting planets. We estimate for TRAPPIST-1 transit depth measurements mean noise floors of $\sim$35 and 25 ppm in channels 1 and 2 of Spitzer/IRAC, respectively. most of this noise floor is of instrumental origins and due to the large inter-pixel inhomogeneity of IRAC InSb arrays, and that the much better interpixel homogeneity of JWST instruments should result in noise floors as low as 10ppm, which is low enough to enable the atmospheric characterization of the planets by transit transmission spectroscopy. We construct updated broadband transmission spectra for all seven planets which show consistent transit depths between the two Spitzer channels. We identify and model five distinct high energy flares in the whole dataset, and discuss our results in the context of habitability. Finally, we fail to detect occultation signals of planets b and c at 4.5 $\mu$m, and can only set 3$\sigma$ upper limits on their dayside brightness temperatures (611K for b 586K for c)

Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of endocrine disruptor effects on trout

We demonstrate how mechanistic modeling can be used to predict whether and how biological responses to chemicals at (sub)organismal levels in model species (i.e., what we typically measure) translate into impacts on ecosystem service delivery (i.e., what we care about). We consider a hypothetical case study of two species of trout, brown trout (Salmo trutta; BT) and greenback cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii stomias; GCT). These hypothetical populations live in a high-altitude river system and are exposed to human-derived estrogen (17α‑ethinyl estradiol, EE2), which is the bioactive estrogen in many contraceptives. We use the individual based model in STREAM to explore how seasonally varying concentrations of EE2 could influence male spawning and sperm quality. Resulting impacts on trout recruitment and the consequences of such for anglers and for the continued viability of populations of GCT (the state fish of Colorado) are explored. in STREAM incorporates seasonally varying river flow and temperature, fishing pressure, the influence of EE2 on species-specific demography, and inter-specific competition. The model facilitates quantitative exploration of the relative importance of endocrine disruption and inter-species competition on trout population dynamics. Simulations predicted constant EE2 loading to have more impacts on GCT than BT. However, increasing removal of BT by anglers can enhance the persistence of GCT and offset some of the negative effects of EE2. We demonstrate how models that quantitatively link impacts of chemicals and other stressors on individual survival, growth, and reproduction to consequences for populations and ecosystem service delivery, can be coupled with ecosystem service valuation. The approach facilitates interpretation of toxicity data in an ecological context and gives beneficiaries of ecosystem services amore explicit role in management decisions. Although challenges remain, this type of approach may be particularly helpful for site-specific risk assessments and those in which trade offs and synergies among ecosystem services need to be considered

In search of lost hybridity: the French Daniel Deronda

Starting from a set of examples of borrowings from French in George Eliot’s Daniel Deronda, I explore the various ways in which the characters’ and narrator’s use of mixed English–French utterances generates inferences which make the transcending of their mono-cultural self possible. I go on to argue that in Jumeau’s recent French translation of the novel, the reader is not given access to those inferences, resulting in the erasing of an Anglo-European, cosmopolitan identity

An eclipsing substellar binary in a young triple system discovered by SPECULOOS

Mass, radius, and age are three of the most fundamental parameters for celestial objects, enabling studies of the evolution and internal physics of stars, brown dwarfs, and planets. Brown dwarfs are hydrogen-rich objects that are unable to sustain core fusion reactions but are supported from collapse by electron degeneracy pressure. As they age, brown dwarfs cool, reducing their radius and luminosity. Young exoplanets follow a similar behaviour. Brown dwarf evolutionary models are relied upon to infer the masses, radii and ages of these objects. Similar models are used to infer the mass and radius of directly imaged exoplanets. Unfortunately, only sparse empirical mass, radius and age measurements are currently available, and the models remain mostly unvalidated. Double-line eclipsing binaries provide the most direct route for the absolute determination of the masses and radii of stars. Here, we report the SPECULOOS discovery of 2M1510A, a nearby, eclipsing, double-line brown dwarf binary, with a widely-separated tertiary brown dwarf companion. We also find that the system is a member of the $45\pm5$ Myr-old moving group, Argus. The system's age matches those of currently known directly-imaged exoplanets. 2M1510A provides an opportunity to benchmark evolutionary models of brown dwarfs and young planets. We find that widely-used evolutionary models do reproduce the mass, radius and age of the binary components remarkably well, but overestimate the luminosity by up to 0.65 magnitudes, which could result in underestimated photometric masses for directly-imaged exoplanets and young field brown dwarfs by 20 to 35%

Development of the SPECULOOS exoplanet search project

SPECULOOS (Search for habitable Planets EClipsing ULtra-cOOl Stars) aims to perform a transit search on the nearest ($<40$pc) ultracool ($<3000$K) dwarf stars. The project's main motivation is to discover potentially habitable planets well-suited for detailed atmospheric characterisation with upcoming giant telescopes, like the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and European Large Telescope (ELT). The project is based on a network of 1m robotic telescopes, namely the four ones of the SPECULOOS-Southern Observatory (SSO) in Cerro Paranal, Chile, one telescope of the SPECULOOS-Northern Observatory (SNO) in Tenerife, and the SAINT-Ex telescope in San Pedro M\'artir, Mexico. The prototype survey of the SPECULOOS project on the 60~cm TRAPPIST telescope (Chile) discovered the TRAPPIST-1 system, composed of seven temperate Earth-sized planets orbiting a nearby (12~pc) Jupiter-sized star. In this paper, we review the current status of SPECULOOS, its first results, the plans for its development, and its connection to the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and JWST

Refining the transit-timing and photometric analysis of TRAPPIST-1: Masses, Radii, densities, dynamics, and ephemerides

We have collected transit times for the TRAPPIST-1 system with the Spitzer Space Telescope over four years. We add to these ground-based, HST and K2 transit time measurements, and revisit an N-body dynamical analysis of the seven-planet system using our complete set of times from which we refine the mass ratios of the planets to the star. We next carry out a photodynamical analysis of the Spitzer light curves to derive the density of the host star and the planet densities. We find that all seven planets' densities may be described with a single rocky mass-radius relation which is depleted in iron relative to Earth, with Fe 21 wt% versus 32 wt% for Earth, and otherwise Earth-like in composition. Alternatively, the planets may have an Earth-like composition, but enhanced in light elements, such as a surface water layer or a core-free structure with oxidized iron in the mantle. We measure planet masses to a precision of 3-5%, equivalent to a radial-velocity (RV) precision of 2.5 cm/sec, or two orders of magnitude more precise than current RV capabilities. We find the eccentricities of the planets are very small; the orbits are extremely coplanar; and the system is stable on 10 Myr timescales. We find evidence of infrequent timing outliers which we cannot explain with an eighth planet; we instead account for the outliers using a robust likelihood function. We forecast JWST timing observations, and speculate on possible implications of the planet densities for the formation, migration and evolution of the planet system

Evidence for transit-timing variations of the 11 Myr exoplanet TOI-1227 b

TOI-1227 b is an 11 Myr old validated transiting planet in the middle of its contraction phase, with a current radius of 0.85 RJ. It orbits a low-mass pre-main sequence star (0.170 M⊙, 0.56 R⊙) every 27.4 days. The magnetic activity of its young host star induces radial velocity jitter and prevents good measurements of the planetary mass. We gathered additional transit observations of TOI-1227 b with space- and ground-based telescopes, and we detected highly significant transit-timing variations (TTVs). Their amplitude is about 40 minutes and their dominant timescale is longer than 3.7 years. Their most probable origin is dynamical interactions with additional planets in the system. We modeled the TTVs with inner and outer perturbers near first and second order resonances; several orbital configurations provide an acceptable fit. More data are needed to determine the actual orbital configuration and eventually measure the planetary masses. These TTVs and an updated transit chromaticity analysis reinforce the evidence that TOI-1227 b is a planet