A comparison of popular fertility awareness methods to a DBN model of the woman's monthly cycle

Fertility Awareness Methods are effective, safe, and low-cost techniques for identifying the fertile days of a menstrual cycle. In this paper, we compare the effectiveness of predicting the fertile days by a Dynamic Bayesian Network model of the monthly cycle to 11 existing Fertility Awareness Methods. We base our comparison on a real data set of 7,017 cycles collected by 881 women. We demonstrate that the DBN model is more accurate than the best modern Fertility Awareness Methods, based on the observation of mucus, marking reasonably high percentage of days of the cycle as infertile. We argue that the DBN approach offers other advantages, such as predicting the ovulation day and being able to adjust its predictions to each woman's individual cycle

Clinical: Managing depression in children and young people

Key learning points - How to identify the signs and symptoms of depression in children and adolescents - Treatment options for young people experiencing depression - The Nurse (primary care/Health Visitors/School Nurse) role in supporting young people experiencing depressio

Modeling dynamic systems with memory: What is the right time-order?

Most practical uses of Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) involve temporal inuences of the first order, i.e., inuences between neighboring time steps. This choice is a convenient approximation inuenced by the existence of efficient algorithms for first order models and limitations of available tools. We focus on the question whether constructing higher time-order models is worth the effort when the underlying system's memory goes beyond the current state. We present the results of an experiment with a series of DBN models monitoring woman's monthly cycle. We show that higher order models are significantly more accurate. However, we have also observed overfitting and a resulting decrease in accuracy when the time order chosen is too high

Additional records of scaphitid ammonites from the basal upper Maastrichtian (Upper Cretaceous) of eastern Poland

New records of rare and/or poorly known scaphitid ammonites are presented from the basal upper Maastrichtian (Upper Cretaceous) white chalk exposed at Chelm quarry, Lublin Upland (eastern Poland). The described and illustrated material comprises four specimens, all preserved as composite moulds, and includes a well-preserved microconch of Hoploscaphites schmidi (BIRKELUND, 1982), fragmentary specimens of H. felderi KENNEDY, 1987 and Acanthoscaphites (Euroscaphites) varians blaszkiewiczi JAGT, KENNEDY & MACHALSKI, 1999, as well as a pathological macroconch of Hoploscaphites constrictus lvivensis MACHALSKI, 2005b

Chamber arrangement versus wall structure in the high-rank phylogenetic classification of Foraminifera

Foraminiferal wall micro/ultra-structures of Recent and well-preserved Jurassic (Bathonian) foraminifers of distinct foraminiferal high-rank taxonomic groups, Globothalamea (Rotaliida, Robertinida, and Textulariida), Miliolida, Spirillinata and Lagenata, are presented. Both calcite-cemented agglutinated and entirely calcareous foraminiferal walls have been investigated. Original test ultra-structures of Jurassic foraminifers are given for the first time. “Monocrystalline” wall-type which characterizes the class Spirillinata is documented in high resolution imaging. Globothalamea, Lagenata, porcelaneous representatives of Tubothalamea and Spirillinata display four different major types of wall-structure which may be related to distinct calcification processes. It confirms that these distinct molecular groups evolved separately, probably from single-chambered monothalamids, and independently developed unique wall types. Studied Jurassic simple bilocular taxa, characterized by undivided spiralling or irregular tubes, are composed of miliolid-type needle-shaped crystallites. In turn, spirillinid “monocrystalline” test structure has only been recorded within more complex, multilocular taxa possessing secondary subdivided chambers: Jurassic Paalzowella and Recent Patellina. More integrated molecular and structural studies are needed in order to better understand taxonomic position and phylogeny of tubular taxa. Unilocular and multichambered Lagenata (Lagenidae and Nodosariidae, respectively) show identical test micro and ultra-structure which suggests their close phylogenetic relationship and questions most recent theories of their separate evolutionary history and origins. A comparison of Recent, Cretaceous, and Jurassic foraminiferal test structure indicates that test characteristics at particular higher-rank taxonomic levels change very little over time and thus can serve as good proxies for the taxonomic designations of fossil taxa, when their state of preservation is appropriate for microstructural observations

Recent developments in the treatment of major depressive disorder in children and adolescents.

Major depressive disorder in adolescents is an important public health concern. It is common, a risk factor for suicide and is associated with adverse psychosocial consequences. The UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines recommend that children and young people with moderate-to-severe depression should be seen within Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services and receive specific psychological interventions, possibly in combination with antidepressant medication. Cognitive behavioural therapy (in some studies) and interpersonal psychotherapy have been demonstrated to be more effective than active control treatments for depressed adolescents. For children with depression, there is some evidence that family focused approaches are more effective than individual therapy. Fluoxetine is the antidepressant with the greatest evidence for effectiveness compared with placebo. Treatment with antidepressants and/or psychological therapy is likely to reduce suicidality, although in some young people, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors lead to increased suicidality. There is limited evidence that combination of specific psychological therapy and antidepressant medication is better than treatment with monotherapy. There are methodological limitations in the published literature that make it difficult to relate study findings to the more severely ill clinical population in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services. Young people should have access to both evidence-based psychological interventions and antidepressants for paediatric depression. Collaborative decisions on treatment should be made jointly by young people, their carers and clinicians, taking into account individual circumstances and potential benefits, risks and availability of treatment

Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between psychotic and depressive symptoms in depressed adolescents

Adults with major depressive disorder (MDD) with psychotic features (delusions and/or hallucinations) have more severe symptoms and a worse prognosis. Subclinical psychotic symptoms are more common in adolescents than adults. However, the effects of psychotic symptoms on outcome of depressive symptoms have not been well studied in adolescents. Depressed adolescents aged 11–17 with and without psychotic symptoms were compared on depression severity scores at baseline and at 28- or 42-week follow-up in two large UK cohorts. Psychotic symptoms were weakly associated with more severe depression at baseline in both cohorts. At follow-up, baseline psychotic symptoms were only associated with depressive symptoms in one sample; in the other, the effect size was close to zero. This supports the DSM5 system of psychotic symptoms being a separate code to severity rather than the ICD10 system which only allows the diagnosis of psychotic depression with severe depression. There was no clear support for psychotic symptoms being a baseline marker of treatment response

New records of the great banded furrow bee Halictus scabiosae (ROSSI, 1790) from Poland

Apiformes, Anthophila, Halictidae, range expansio

Toward precision therapeutics: general and specific factors differentiate symptom change in depressed adolescents.

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal course of multiple symptom domains in adolescents treated for major depression is not known. Revealing the temporal course of general and specific psychopathology factors, including potential differences between psychotherapies, may aid therapeutic decision-making. METHODS: Participants were adolescents with major depressive disorder (aged 11-17; 75% female; N = 465) who were part of the IMPACT trial, a randomized controlled trial comparing cognitive behavioral therapy, short-term psychoanalytic psychotherapy, and brief psychosocial intervention. Self-reported symptoms at baseline and 6, 12, 36, 52, and 86 weeks postrandomization were analyzed with bifactor modeling. RESULTS: General psychopathology factor scores decreased across treatment and one-year follow-up. Specific melancholic features and depressive cognitions factors decreased from baseline to 6 weeks. Conduct problems decreased across treatment and follow-up. Anxiety increased by 6 weeks and then reverted to baseline levels. Obsessions-compulsions did not change. Changes in general and specific factors were not significantly different between the three psychotherapies during treatment. During follow-up, however, conduct problems decreased more in brief psychosocial intervention versus cognitive behavioral therapy (1.02, 95% Bayes credible interval 0.25, 1.96), but not versus short-term psychoanalytic psychotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical response signature in this trial is best revealed by rapid reductions in depression symptoms and general psychopathology. Protracted improvements in general psychopathology and conduct problems subsequently occur. Psychosocial treatments for adolescent depression have comparable effects on general and specific psychopathology, although a psychoeducational, goal-focused approach may be indicated for youth with comorbid conduct problems