Multimodel combination techniques for analysis of hydrological simulations: Application to distributed model intercomparison project results

This paper examines several multimodel combination techniques that are used for streamflow forecasting: the simple model average (SMA), the multimodel superensemble (MMSE), modified multimodel superensemble (M3SE), and the weighted average method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multimodel combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model simulations and were compared against the best-uncalibrated as well as the best-calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the accuracy levels of the multimodel simulations. This study revealed that the multimodel simulations obtained from uncalibrated single-model simulations are generally better than any single-member model simulations, even the best-calibrated single-model simulations. Furthermore, more sophisticated multimodel combination techniques that incorporated bias correction step work better than simple multimodel average simulations or multimodel simulations without bias correction. © 2006 American Meteorological Society

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

A hybrid stabilization technique for simulating water wave - Structure interaction by incompressible Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (ISPH) method

The Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method is emerging as a potential tool for studying water wave related problems, especially for violent free surface flow and large deformation problems. The incompressible SPH (ISPH) computations have been found not to be able to maintain the stability in certain situations and there exist some spurious oscillations in the pressure time history, which is similar to the weakly compressible SPH (WCSPH). One main cause of this problem is related to the non-uniform and clustered distribution of the moving particles. In order to improve the model performance, the paper proposed an efficient hybrid numerical technique aiming to correct the ill particle distributions. The correction approach is realized through the combination of particle shifting and pressure gradient improvement. The advantages of the proposed hybrid technique in improving ISPH calculations are demonstrated through several applications that include solitary wave impact on a slope or overtopping a seawall, and regular wave slamming on the subface of open-piled structure

Characteristic Aroma Compounds in Two New Vitis vinifera Cultivars (Table Grapes) and Impact of Vintage and Greenhouse Cultivation

‘Zaoheibao’ (a red tetraploid hybrid) and ‘Wuhecuibao’ (a white triploid hybrid) grapes have beenobtained from Guibao♀ (diploid, Vitis vinifera) × Zaomeigui♂ (diploid, V. vinifera) and Guibao♀ (diploid,V. vinifera) × Wuhebaijixin♂ (triploid, V. vinifera) respectively. Aroma characterisation of the twonew table grape cultivars was firstly done by the investigation of volatile compounds. The influence ofgreenhouse cultivation and vintage on berry aroma was studied as well. The results showed that linalool,decanal, β-damascenone, hexanal and (E)-2-hexenal were the main volatile compounds of the two cultivars,which meant that the floral, fruity and sweet odour were prominent, followed by the herbaceous aroma.Greenhouse cultivation enhanced herbaceous odour in both ‘Wuhecuibao’ and ‘Zaoheibao’ berries,and reduced the floral aroma, contributed mainly by β-damascenone, in ‘Wuhecuibao’, and the sweetaroma, represented mainly by linalool, in ‘Zaoheibao’. The concentrations of the main aroma compoundswere greatly affected by vintage and the intensity of sensorial perception was correspondingly changed,but varietal odour attributes were not significantly altered. These results will not only help promote thecultivation and popularisation of these cultivars, but also will provide valuable data for the use of thesecultivars in future breeding

Interdimensional degeneracies for a quantum three-body system in D dimensions

A new approach is developed to derive the complete spectrum of exact interdimensional degeneracies for a quantum three-body system in D-dimensions. The new method gives a generalization of previous methods

Comparison of Proanthocyanidins with Different Polymerisation Degrees among Berry Skins of ‘Shiraz’, ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’, and ‘Marselan’

Proanthocyanidins in grape berries are synthesised mainly before véraison, and very little attention ispaid to the evolution of proanthocyanidins (PAs) in grapes from véraison to harvest. The present studyfocused on the changes of flavan-3-ols with different degrees of polymerisation in grape skins and thedifference in proanthocyandin composition of ‘Shiraz’, ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ and ‘Marselan’ grapes (Vitisvinifera L.). The results show that the content of flavan-3-ols, the percentage of prodelphinidins (%P)and mean degree polymerisation (mDP) found in ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ berry skins at post-véraison werehigher than those in ‘Shiraz’ and ‘Marselan’ skins. Only monomeric, dimeric, trimeric and polymericflavan-3-ols were detected in the three grape cultivars. Polymers with more than tenfold flavan-3-ol unitsaccounted for a relatively high proportion in grape berry skins, and the content in the three cultivarsdeclined continuously during ripening. Principal component analysis showed that proanthocyanidincontent, composition and mDP at grape harvest stage depended strongly on grape cultivar. This studyprovides some useful information for understanding the accumulation of PAs during berry maturationand this information can be used to improve wine quality

An improved solid boundary treatment for wave-float interactions using ISPH method

The Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method has proved to have great potentials in dealing with the wave-structure interactions. Compared with the Weakly Compressible SPH (WCSPH) method, the ISPH approach solves the pressure by using the pressure Poisson equation rather than the equation of state. This could provide a more stable and accurate pressure field that is important in the study of wave-structure interactions. This paper improves the solid boundary treatment of ISPH by using a high accuracy Simplified Finite Difference Interpolation (SFDI) scheme for the 2D wave-structure coupling problems, especially for free-moving structure. The proposed method is referred as the ISPH_BS. The model improvement is demonstrated by the documented benchmark tests and laboratory experiment covering various wave-structure interaction applications