Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: A convex optimisation approach

In this paper, we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99, we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model, which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed a priori. We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle, which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate mode

Les effets pléiotropes d’un inhibiteur réversible de récepteurs P2Y12

RésuméLe cangrelor actif par voie injectable a été le premier inhibiteur réversible des récepteurs P2Y12, et maintenant, le ticagrelor, premier inhibiteur réversible actif par voie orale, ouvre une ère nouvelle dans l’inhibition de la voie de l’ADP: en effet, ils n’ont ni la même pharmacocinétique ni la même pharmacodynamie que les inhibiteurs irréversibles que sont les métabolites actifs des thiénopyridines auxquels nous étions accoutumés. La molécule agit par sa concentration plasmatique et non par son affinité pour son récepteur. L’activité de la molécule va donc pouvoir se porter:-sur des sites P2Y12 extra-plaquettaires qui n’étaient que peu ou pas accessibles aux inhibiteurs irréversibles, et ainsi dévoiler au niveau vasculaire des effets vasodilatateurs;-sur des sites récepteurs transporteurs de moindre affinité. C’est ainsi que le ticagrélor inhibe l’« erythrocyte equilibrative nucleoside transporter », transporteur situé à la membrane des globules rouges et responsable de l’incorporation rapide et active de l’adénosine dans les globules. L’inhibition de l’ENT induit une accumulation d’adénosine avec toute une série d’effets possibles, « les effets adénosine », qui peuvent potentiellement renforcer l’effet primaire: l’adénosine a une activité directe d’anti-agrégant plaquettaire et pas seulement inhibitrice de l’agrégation plaquettaire; l’adénosine a des effets vasculaires: vasodilatateurs mais aussi de pré- et de post-conditionnement en protection contre l’ischémie-reperfusion, et des effets anti-inflammatoires au niveau local. Mais c’est aussi cet effet adénosine qui peut expliquer certains effets secondaires notés lors des études avec le ticagrélor (dyspnée, augmentation des taux plasmatiques d’acide urique et de créatinine, bradycardie en particulier). L’observation que ces patients présentant ces effets secondaires tirent un bénéfice même supérieur du traitement est un argument fort pour indiquer que l’effet adénosine participe de manière significative au bénéfice global net du traitement par le ticagrélor.SummaryCangrelor, administered intravenously, was the first reversible inhibitor of P2Y12 receptors. More recently, ticagrelor is the first oral reversible inhibitor of P2Y12 receptors. These drugs act through their extracellular concentration, in contrast to thienopyridines, which act through irreversible binding of their active metabolite to P2Y12 receptors. These drugs also differ in terms of their pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and modes of action (direct vs indirect). Besides inhibition of platelet P2Y12 receptors, ticagrelor also acts on P2Y12 receptors of other cells. These receptors are much less accessible to the high affinity and short plasma survival of the active metabolites of thienopyridines. At the vascular level, inhibition of P2Y12 receptors on smooth muscle cells prevents vasoconstriction induced by adenosine diphosphate. Ticagrelor also inhibits the erythrocyte equilibrative nucleoside transporter (ENT) (which is responsible for the rapid and active incorporation of adenosine into erythrocytes), and therefore leads to extra-cellular adenosine accumulation. Adenosine, a potent cellular mediator responsible for the ‘adenosine effects’of ticagrelor, can reinforce the primary effect of ticagrelor (adenosine has a direct inhibitory effect on platelet activation/aggregation and is not only an inhibitor of the ADP pathway of platelet activation/aggregation). Adenosine exerts multiple vascular effects – vasodilatation and protection against ischaemic – reperfusion lesions (pre-conditioning and post-conditioning effects) – and these effects can explain some of the secondary effects observed during clinical studies in patients receiving ticagrelor (dyspnoea, increase in plasma concentrations of uric acid and creatinine, bradycardia). The observation that patients affected by such side-effects benefit to a greater extent than patients who do not, provides substance to the argument that the adenosine effect of ticagrelor is significantly implicated in the net global benefit of treatment in patients with acute coronary syndromes

Modelling the contribution of short-range atmospheric and hydrological transfers to nitrogen fluxes, budgets and indirect emissions in rural landscapes

Spatial interactions within a landscape may lead to large inputs of reactive nitrogen (N<sub>r</sub>) transferred from cultivated areas and farms to oligotrophic ecosystems and induce environmental threats such as acidification, nitric pollution or eutrophication of protected areas. The paper presents a new methodology to estimate N<sub>r</sub> fluxes at the landscape scale by taking into account spatial interactions between landscape elements. This methodology includes estimates of indirect N<sub>r</sub> emissions due to short-range atmospheric and hydrological transfers. We used the NitroScape model which integrates processes of N<sub>r</sub> transformation and short-range transfer in a dynamic and spatially distributed way to simulate N<sub>r</sub> fluxes and budgets at the landscape scale. Four configurations of NitroScape were implemented by taking into account or not the atmospheric, hydrological or both pathways of N<sub>r</sub> transfer. We simulated N<sub>r</sub> fluxes, especially direct and indirect N<sub>r</sub> emissions, within a test landscape including pig farms, croplands and unmanaged ecosystems. Simulation results showed the ability of NitroScape to simulate patterns of N<sub>r</sub> emissions and recapture for each landscape element and the whole landscape. NitroScape made it possible to quantify the contribution of both atmospheric and hydrological transfers to N<sub>r</sub> fluxes, budgets and indirect N<sub>r</sub> emissions. For instance, indirect N<sub>2</sub>O emissions were estimated at around 21% of the total N<sub>2</sub>O emissions. They varied within the landscape according to land use, meteorological and soil conditions as well as topography. This first attempt proved that the NitroScape model is a useful tool to estimate the effect of spatial interactions on N<sub>r</sub> fluxes and budgets as well as indirect N<sub>r</sub> emissions within landscapes. Our approach needs to be further tested by applying NitroScape to several spatial arrangements of agro-ecosystems within the landscape and to real and larger landscapes

I021 Impact du polymorphisme génétique C(-260)T du CD14 sur la pression pulsée en fonction d’autres facteurs de risque cardiovasculaires : etude populationnelle transversale à partir du registre monica

Objectif de l’étudeLe CD14 est à l’intersection entre l’inflammation, les maladies infectieuses et le syndrome métabolique. Une corrélation positive entre la concentration plasmatique du CD14 soluble (sCD14) et la rigidité aortique a été décrite dans une étude transversale. Mais différents résultats ont été retrouvés sur l’incidence des évènements cardiovasculaires en fonction du polymorphisme C(-260)T du gène du CD14.L’objectif de cette étude est d’étudier l’influence du polymorphisme C(-260)T du CD14 sur la pression pulsée et indirectement sur le risque cardiovasculaire à partir de l’étude populationnelle transversale MONICA.Déroulement de l’étude1 155 sujets âgés entre 35 et 64 ans, en prévention primaire, ont été recrutés à partir des listes électorales de la Haute Garonne entre 1995 et 1997.MéthodesLa pression pulsée brachiale était mesurée au repos à 2 reprises puis moyennée. La concentration plasmatique du sCD14 a été mesurée par méthode immunoenzymatique. La randomisation est de type mendélienne. Les sujets ont été répartis en fonction du polymorphisme C(-260)T du CD14 après génotypage : homozygotes CC, homozygotes TT ou hétérozygotes CT.RésultatsLes sujets homozygotes TT ont une pression pulsée (PP) significativement plus basse et une concentration en sCD14 significativement plus élevée. Après ajustement avec les principaux facteurs confondants (âge, sexe, facteurs de risque cardiovasculaires traités), seul le génotype du CD14 reste corrélé à la PP. Cette corrélation n’intervient qu’en présence de facteurs de risque traités. Les diabétiques traités homozygotes TT sont ceux qui bénéficient de la plus importante baisse de PP par rapport aux homozygotes diabétiques CC (− 19,4mmHg, p=0,006).ConclusionCette étude suggère que les facteurs de risque ont un impact différent sur la pression pulsée en fonction du polymorphisme C(-260)T du CD14. Cette observation pourrait contribuer à affiner le risque cardiovasculaire absolu individuel, les sujets homozygotes TT ayant un risque cardiovasculaire moindre

Synthesis, thermogravimetric and high temperature X-ray diffraction analyses of zinc-substituted nickel manganites

Stoichiometric spinel phases Mn2.352xNi0.65ZnxO4 were prepared by thermal decomposition of mixed oxalate precursor powders Mn0.782aNi0.22ZnaC2O4znH2O (with 0 # a # 0.53) at 900°C. Cation-deficient phases Mn2.352xNi0.65Znxh3d/4O41d were identified in the temperature range 350–500°C. The nonstoichiometric coefficient d was found to strongly depend on the zinc content and the decomposition temperature. We showed that the introduction of zinc into the spinel phase enlarges the stability domain of the structure and inhibits oxidation at least up to 900°C. A cubic single-phase was observed for x # 1.00. The lattice parameter variation of the oxides in the composition range 0 # x # 0.60 can be explained using Poix’s method, in terms of the distribution of Zn21 cations on the tetrahedral sites. However, for higher zinc content (x . 0.6) a detailed analysis of data showed that a small fraction of Zn21 is located on octahedral sites

An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways

The feasibility of large-scale biological CO2 removal to achieve stringent climate targets remains unclear. Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) offers an alternative negative emissions technology (NET) option. Here we conduct the first inter-model comparison on the role of DACCS in 1.5 and 2°C scenarios, under a variety of techno-economic assumptions. Deploying DACCS significantly reduces mitigation costs, and it complements rather than substitutes other NETs. The key factor limiting DACCS deployment is the rate at which it can be scaled up. Our scenarios’ average DACCS scale-up rates of 1.5 GtCO2/yr would require considerable sorbent production and up to 300 EJ/yr of energy input by 2100. The risk of assuming that DACCS can be deployed at scale, and finding it to be subsequently unavailable, leads to a global temperature overshoot of up to 0.8°C. DACCS should therefore be developed and deployed alongside, rather than instead of, other mitigation options

Neuropathic complications after 157 procedures of continuous popliteal nerve block for hallux valgus surgery. A retrospective study

SummaryBackgroundContinuous peripheral nerve block (CPNB), in particular at the popliteal fossa, is widely used in orthopedic surgery, allowing good postoperative analgesia. Possible neuropathic complications, however, remain poorly known.ObjectiveTo review the characteristics of peripheral neuropathy (PN) after sciatic CPNB at the popliteal fossa, estimating prevalence, severity, evolution and possible risk factors, especially those relating to the procedure.MethodsRetrospective study of PN associated with popliteal fossa CPNB for hallux valgus surgery, between November 1st, 2005 and November 1st, 2009. All procedures were analyzed (type of anesthesia, approach, nerve location technique, number of procedures by operator) with, for each case of PN, analysis of clinical and electromyographic data.ResultsOne hundred and fifty seven sciatic CPNBs were performed (92% women; mean age, 55 years). The approach was lateral (n=62), posterior (n=74) or unknown (n=21). Ultrasound guidance was combined to neurostimulation for 69 patients (44%). Three women (prevalence=1.91%), aged 19, 24 and 65 years respectively, developed associated common superficial peroneal and sural nerve injury (2), axonal on electromyography, with motor (n=1) and/or sensory (n=3) residual dysfunction.DiscussionThe higher prevalence found in the present study than in the literature (0 to 0.5%) raises questions of methodological bias or technical problems. The common peroneal and sural nerves seem to be exposed, unlike the tibial. Several mechanisms can be suggested: anesthetic neurotoxicity, direct mechanical lesion, or tourniquet-related ischemia and conduction block. Further studies are necessary to determine the ideal anesthetic procedure.ConclusionPatients should be informed of the potential risk, however rare, even during mild surgery. The best possible technique should be implemented, with reinforced surveillance.Level of evidenceLevel IV retrospective study

Fossil extraction bans and carbon taxes: Assessing their interplay through multiple models

Given concerns about the ambition and effectiveness of current climate policies, a case has been made for the combination of demand side policies such as carbon pricing with supply side bans on fossil fuel extraction. However, little is known about their interplay in the context of climate stabilization strategies. Here, we present a multi-model assessment quantifying the effectiveness of supply side policies and their interactions with demand-side ones. We explore a variety of fossil fuel bans with four integrated assessment models and find that international supply side policies reduce carbon emissions but not at sufficient levels to stabilize temperature increase to well below 2°C. When combined with demand side policies, supply side policies reduce the required carbon price, dampen reliance on CO2 removal technologies, and increase investment in renewable energy. The results indicate the opportunity to integrate fossil fuel bans alongside price-based policies when exploring pathways to reach ambitious mitigation targets

Using a Crop Model to Benchmark Miscanthus and Switchgrass

Crop yields are important items in the economic performance and the environmental impacts of second-generation biofuels. Since they strongly depend on crop management and pedoclimatic conditions, it is important to compare candidate feedstocks to select the most appropriate crops in a given context. Agro-ecosystem models offer a prime route to benchmark crops, but have been little tested from this perspective thus far. Here, we tested whether an agro-ecosystem model (CERES-EGC) was specific enough to capture the differences between miscanthus and switchgrass in northern Europe. The model was compared to field observations obtained in seven long-term trials in France and the UK, involving different fertilizer input rates and harvesting dates. At the calibration site (Estrées-Mons), the mean deviations between simulated and observed crop biomass yields for miscanthus varied between −0.3 t DM ha−1 and 4.2 t DM ha−1. For switchgrass, simulated yields were within 1.0 t DM ha−1 of the experimental data. Observed miscanthus yields were higher than switchgrass yields in most sites and for all treatments, with one exception. Overall, the model captured the differences between both crops adequately, with a mean deviation of 0.46 t DM ha−1, and could be used to guide feedstock selections over larger biomass supply areas

Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: a convex optimization approach

In this paper we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99 we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed a priori. We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate model