76 research outputs found

    Association between fertility and HIV status: what implications for HIV estimates?

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    Background: Most estimates of HIV prevalence have been based on sentinel surveillance of pregnant women which may either under-estimate or over-estimate the actual prevalence in adult female population. One situation which can lead to either an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual HIV prevalence is where there is a significant difference in fertility rates between HIV-positive and HIV-negative women. Our aim was to compare the fertility rates of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women in Cameroon in order to make recommendations on the appropriate adjustments when using antenatal sentinel data to estimate HIV prevalence Methods: Cross-sectional, population-based study using data from 4493 sexually active women aged 15 to 49 years who participated in the 2004 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey. Results: In the rural area, the age-specific fertility rates in both HIV positive and HIV negative women increased from 15-19 years age bracket to a maximum at 20-24 years and then decreased monotonically till 35-49 years. Similar trends were observed in the urban area. The overall fertility rate for HIV positive women was 118.7 births per 1000 woman-years (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 98.4 to 142.0) compared to 171.3 births per 1000 woman-years (95% CI 164.5 to 178.2) for HIV negative women. The ratio of the fertility rate in HIV positive women to the fertility rate of HIV negative women (called the relative inclusion ratio) was 0.69 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.75). Conclusion: Fertility rates are lower in HIV-positive than HIV-negative women in Cameroon. The findings of this study support the use of summary RIR for the adjustment of HIV prevalence (among adult female population) obtained from sentinel surveillance in antenatal clinics

    Predicting the risk of Chronic Kidney Disease in Men and Women in England and Wales: prospective derivation and external validation of the QKidney® Scores

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic Kidney Disease is a major cause of morbidity and interventions now exist which can reduce risk. We sought to develop and validate two new risk algorithms (the QKidney<sup>® </sup>Scores) for estimating (a) the individual 5 year risk of moderate-severe CKD and (b) the individual 5 year risk of developing End Stage Kidney Failure in a primary care population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a prospective open cohort study using data from 368 QResearch<sup>® </sup>general practices to develop the scores. We validated the scores using two separate sets of practices - 188 separate QResearch<sup>® </sup>practices and 364 practices contributing to the THIN database.</p> <p>We studied 775,091 women and 799,658 men aged 35-74 years in the QResearch<sup>® </sup>derivation cohort, who contributed 4,068,643 and 4,121,926 person-years of observation respectively.</p> <p>We had two main outcomes (a) moderate-severe CKD (defined as the first evidence of CKD based on the earliest of any of the following: kidney transplant; kidney dialysis; diagnosis of nephropathy; persistent proteinuria; or glomerular filtration rate of < 45 mL/min) and (b) End Stage Kidney Failure.</p> <p>We derived separate risk equations for men and women. We calculated measures of calibration and discrimination using the two separate validation cohorts.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our final model for moderate-severe CKD included: age, ethnicity, deprivation, smoking, BMI, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, cardiovascular disease, treated hypertension, congestive cardiac failure; peripheral vascular disease, NSAID use and family history of kidney disease. In addition, it included SLE and kidney stones in women. The final model for End Stage Kidney Failure was similar except it did not include NSAID use.</p> <p>Each risk prediction algorithms performed well across all measures in both validation cohorts. For the THIN cohort, the model to predict moderate-severe CKD explained 56.38% of the total variation in women and 57.49% for men. The D statistic values were high with values of 2.33 for women and 2.38 for men. The ROC statistic was 0.875 for women and 0.876 for men.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These new algorithms have the potential to identify high risk patients who might benefit from more detailed assessment, closer monitoring or interventions to reduce their risk.</p
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