Estimating bank default with generalised extreme value regression models

The paper proposes a novel model for the prediction of bank failures, on the basis of both macroeconomic and bank-specific microeconomic factors. As bank failures are rare, in the paper we apply a regression method for binary data based on extreme value theory, which turns out to be more effective than classical logistic regression models, as it better leverages the information in the tail of the default distribution. The application of this model to the occurrence of bank defaults in a highly bank dependent economy (Italy) shows that, while microeconomic factors as well as regulatory capital are significant to explain proper failures, macroeconomic factors are relevant only when failures are defined not only in terms of actual defaults but also in terms of mergers and acquisitions. In terms of predictive accuracy, the model based on extreme value theory outperforms classical logistic regression models

The social underpinnings of mental distress in the time of COVID-19 – time for urgent action

We argue that predictions of a ‘tsunami’ of mental health problems as a consequence of the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the lockdown are overstated; feelings of anxiety and sadness are entirely normal reactions to difficult circumstances, not symptoms of poor mental health. Some people will need specialised mental health support, especially those already leading tough lives; we need immediate reversal of years of underfunding of community mental health services. However, the disproportionate effects of COVID-19 on the most disadvantaged, especially BAME people placed at risk by their social and economic conditions, were entirely predictable. Mental health is best ensured by urgently rebuilding the social and economic supports stripped away over the last decade. Governments must pump funds into local authorities to rebuild community services, peer support, mutual aid and local community and voluntary sector organisations. Health care organisations must tackle racism and discrimination to ensure genuine equal access to universal health care. Government must replace highly conditional benefit systems by something like a universal basic income. All economic and social policies must be subjected to a legally binding mental health audit. This may sound unfeasibly expensive, but the social and economic costs, not to mention the costs in personal and community suffering, though often invisible, are far greater

Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset

© 2015 Luo et al. For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease

Ovine pedomics : the first study of the ovine foot 16S rRNA-based microbiome

We report the first study of the bacterial microbiome of ovine interdigital skin based on 16S rRNA by pyrosequencing and conventional cloning with Sanger-sequencing. Three flocks were selected, one a flock with no signs of footrot or interdigital dermatitis, a second flock with interdigital dermatitis alone and a third flock with both interdigital dermatitis and footrot. The sheep were classified as having either healthy interdigital skin (H), interdigital dermatitis (ID) or virulent footrot (VFR). The ovine interdigital skin bacterial community varied significantly by flock and clinical condition. The diversity and richness of operational taxonomic units was greater in tissue from sheep with ID than H or VFR affected sheep. Actinobacteria, Bacteriodetes, Firmicutes and Proteobacteria were the most abundant phyla comprising 25 genera. Peptostreptococcus, Corynebacterium and Staphylococcus were associated with H, ID and VFR respectively. Sequences of Dichelobacter nodosus, the causal agent of ovine footrot, were not amplified due to mismatches in the 16S rRNA universal forward primer (27F). A specific real time PCR assay was used to demonstrate the presence of D. nodosus which was detected in all samples including the flock with no signs of ID or VFR. Sheep with ID had significantly higher numbers of D. nodosus (104-109 cells/g tissue) than those with H or VFR feet

The Q(weak) experimental apparatus

The Jefferson Lab experiment determined the weak charge of the proton by measuring the parity-violating elastic scattering asymmetry of longitudinally polarized electrons from an unpolarized liquid hydrogen target at small momentum transfer. A custom apparatus was designed for this experiment to meet the technical challenges presented by the smallest and most precise (e) over right arrowp asymmetry ever measured. Technical milestones were achieved at Jefferson Lab in target power, beam current, beam helicity reversal rate, polarimetry, detected rates, and control of helicity-correlated beam properties. The experiment employed 180 mu A of 89% longitudinally polarized electrons whose helicity was reversed 960 times per second. The electrons were accelerated to 1.16 GeV and directed to a beamline with extensive instrumentation to measure helicity-correlated beam properties that can induce false asymmetries. Muller and Compton polarimetry were used to measure the electron beam polarization to better than 1%. The electron beam was incident on a 34.4 cm liquid hydrogen target. After passing through a triple collimator system, scattered electrons between 5.8 degrees and 11.6 degrees were bent in the toroidal magnetic field of a resistive copper-coil magnet. The electrons inside this acceptance were focused onto eight fused silica Cherenkov detectors arrayed symmetrically around the beam axis. A total scattered electron rate of about 7 GHz was incident on the detector array. The detectors were read out in integrating mode by custom-built low-noise pre-amplifiers and 18-bit sampling ADC modules. The momentum transfer Q(2)=0.025 GeV2 was determined using dedicated low-current (similar to 100 pA) measurements with a set of drift chambers before (and a set of drift chambers and trigger scintillation counters after) the toroidal magnet. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved

The ideal job-seeker norm: unemployment and marital privileges in the professional middle-class

Objective: To understand how heterosexual US married parents interpret and respond to a spouse's unemployment and subsequent job-searching. Background: The pervasiveness of employment uncertainty, and unemployment, may propel families to embrace gender egalitarian norms. Quantitative research finds that this possibility is not borne out. Qualitative research has sought to illuminate mechanisms as to how gender norms persist even during a time that is optimal for dismantling them, but these mechanisms remain unclear. Method: Seventy-two in-depth interviews were conducted with a nonrandom sample of heterosexual, professional, dual-earner, married, unemployed women, men, and their spouses in the United States. Follow-up interviews were conducted with 35 participants. Intensive family observations were conducted with four families, two of unemployed men, and two of unemployed women. Results: Unemployed women, men, and spouses acknowledge that a set of time-intensive activities are key for reemployment (the ideal job-seeker norm). Couples with unemployed men direct resources such as time, space, and even money to facilitate unemployed men's compliance with the ideal job-seeker norm. Couples downplay the importance of women's reemployment and do not direct similar resources to help unemployed women job-search. Conclusion: Couples preserve a traditional gender status quo, often in defiance of material realities, by actively maintaining men's position at the helm of paid work and women's at unpaid work. Implications: Linking unemployment and job-seeking with the institution of heterosexual marriage reveals novel insights into social and marital processes shaping job-seeking

Seropositivity to Cytomegalovirus, Inflammation, All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease-Related Mortality in the United States

Studies have suggested that CMV infection may influence cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and mortality. However, there have been no large-scale examinations of these relationships among demographically diverse populations. The inflammatory marker C-reactive protein (CRP) is also linked with CVD outcomes and mortality and may play an important role in the pathway between CMV and mortality. We utilized a U.S. nationally representative study to examine whether CMV infection is associated with all-cause and CVD-related mortality. We also assessed whether CRP level mediated or modified these relationships., 2006 (N = 14153) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III (1988–1994). Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all-cause and CVD-related mortality by CMV serostatus. After adjusting for multiple confounders, CMV seropositivity remained statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.41). The association between CMV and CVD-related mortality did not achieve statistical significance after confounder adjustment. CRP did not mediate these associations. However, CMV seropositive individuals with high CRP levels showed a 30.1% higher risk for all-cause mortality and 29.5% higher risk for CVD-related mortality compared to CMV seropositive individuals with low CRP levels.CMV was associated with a significant increased risk for all-cause mortality and CMV seropositive subjects who also had high CRP levels were at substantially higher risk for both for all-cause and CVD-related mortality than subjects with low CRP levels. Future work should target the mechanisms by which CMV infection and low-level inflammation interact to yield significant impact on mortality

The Present and Future Role of Insect-Resistant Genetically Modified Maize in IPM

Commercial, genetically-modified (GM) maize was first planted in the United States (USA, 1996) and Canada (1997) but now is grown in 13 countries on a total of over 35 million hectares (\u3e24% of area worldwide). The first GM maize plants produced a Cry protein derived from the soil bacteriumBacillus thuringiensis (Bt), which made them resistant to European corn borer and other lepidopteran maize pests. New GM maize hybrids not only have resistance to lepidopteran pests but some have resistance to coleopteran pests and tolerance to specific herbicides. Growers are attracted to the Btmaize hybrids for their convenience and because of yield protection, reduced need for chemical insecticides, and improved grain quality. Yet, most growers worldwide still rely on traditional integrated pest management (IPM) methods to control maize pests. They must weigh the appeal of buying insect protection “in the bag” against questions regarding economics, environmental safety, and insect resistance management (IRM). Traditional management of maize insects and the opportunities and challenges presented by GM maize are considered as they relate to current and future insect-resistant products. Four countries, two that currently have commercialize Bt maize (USA and Spain) and two that do not (China and Kenya), are highlighted. As with other insect management tactics (e.g., insecticide use or tillage), GM maize should not be considered inherently compatible or incompatible with IPM. Rather, the effect of GM insect-resistance on maize IPM likely depends on how the technology is developed and used