37 research outputs found

    Combining observations with acoustic swath bathymetry and backscatter to map seabed sediment texture classes: the empirical best linear unbiased predictor

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    Seabed sediment texture can be mapped by geostatistical prediction from limited direct observations such as grab-samples. A geostatistical model can provide local estimates of the probability of each texture class so the most probable sediment class can be identified at any unsampled location, and the uncertainty of this prediction can be quantified. In this paper we show, in a case study off the northeast coast of England, how swath bathymetry and backscatter can be incorporated into a geostatistical linear mixed model (LMM) as fixed effects (covariates). Parameters of the LMM were estimated by maximum likelihood which allowed us to show that both covariates provided useful information. In a cross-validation, each observation was predicted from the rest using the LMMs with (i) no covariates, or (ii) bathymetry and backscatter as covariates. The proportion of cases in which the most probable class according to the prediction corresponded to the observed class was increased (from 58% to 65% of cases) by including the covariates which also increased the information content of the predictions, measured by the entropy of the class probabilities. A qualitative assessment of the geostatistical results shows that the model correctly predicts, for example, the occurrence of coarser sediment over discrete glacial sediment landforms, and muddier sediment in relatively quiescent, localized deep water environments. This demonstrates the potential for assimilating geophysical data with direct observations by the LMM, and could offer a basis for a routine mapping procedure which incorporates these and other ancillary information such as manually-interpreted geological and geomorphological maps

    Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

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    The Sun's outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Special issue connected with a 2016 ISSI workshop on "The Scientific Foundations of Space Weather." 44 pages, 9 figure

    Synthetic strategies, sustainability and biological applications of malic acid-based polymers

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    noThis review summarises the recent developments in the synthesis and applications of polymers derived from malic acid. There has been an increased interest in the design of sustainable and biodegradable polymers as a result of the drive to use renewable feedstocks as an alternative to petrochemicals in addition to their significant potential in biomedical applications. Synthetic strategies to access polymers from malic acid based on both condensation and ring-opening polymerization, across a broad range of conditions, are reviewed along with their advantages and limits. The role that such materials are studied for in biomedical applications is discussed, and their environmental impact based on the biodegradability of the malic polymer backbone is outlined.The Royal Society, EPSRC, BBSR

    Phased occupation and retreat of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet in the southern North Sea: geomorphic and seismostratigraphic evidence of a dynamic ice lobe

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    Along the terrestrial margin of the southern North Sea, previous studies of the MIS 2 glaciation impacting eastern Britain have played a significant role in the development of principles relating to ice sheet dynamics (e.g. deformable beds), and the practice of reconstructing the style, timing, and spatial configuration of palaeo-ice sheets. These detailed terrestrially-based findings have however relied on observations made from only the outer edges of the former ice mass, as the North Sea Lobe (NSL) of the British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) occupied an area that is now almost entirely submarine (c.21–15 ka). Compounded by the fact that marine-acquired data have been primarily of insufficient quality and density, the configuration and behaviour of the last BIIS in the southern North Sea remains surprisingly poorly constrained. This paper presents analysis of a new, integrated set of extensive seabed geomorphological and seismo-stratigraphic observations that both advances the principles developed previously onshore (e.g. multiple advance and retreat cycles), and provides a more detailed and accurate reconstruction of the BIIS at its southern-most extent in the North Sea. A new bathymetry compilation of the region reveals a series of broad sedimentary wedges and associated moraines that represent several terminal positions of the NSL. These former still-stand ice margins (1–4) are also found to relate to newly-identified architectural patterns (shallow stacked sedimentary wedges) in the region's seismic stratigraphy (previously mapped singularly as the Bolders Bank Formation). With ground-truthing constraint provided by sediment cores, these wedges are interpreted as sub-marginal till wedges, formed by complex subglacial accretionary processes that resulted in till thickening towards the former ice-sheet margins. The newly sub-divided shallow seismic stratigraphy (at least five units) also provides an indication of the relative event chronology of the NSL. While there is a general record of south-to-north retreat, seismic data also indicate episodes of ice-sheet re-advance suggestive of an oscillating margin (e.g. MIS 2 maximum not related to first incursion of ice into region). Demonstrating further landform interdependence, geographically-grouped sets of tunnel valleys are shown to be genetically related to these individual ice margins, providing clear insight into how meltwater drainage was organised at the evolving termini of this dynamic ice lobe. The newly reconstructed offshore ice margins are found to be well correlated with previously observed terrestrial limits in Lincolnshire and E. Yorkshire (Holderness) (e.g. MIS 2 maximum and Withernsea Till). This reconstruction will hopefully provide a useful framework for studies targeting the climatic, mass-balance, and external glaciological factors (i.e. Fennoscandian Ice Sheet) that influenced late-stage advance and deglaciation, important for accurately characterising both modern and palaeo-ice sheets

    Spatial prediction of seabed sediment texture classes by cokriging from a legacy database of point observations

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    This paper illustrates the potential for statistical mapping of seabed sediment texture classes. It reports the analysis of legacy data on the composition of seabed sediment samples from the UK Continental Shelf with respect to three particle size classes (sand, mud, gravel). After appropriate transformation for compositional variables the spatial variation of the sediment particle size classes was modelled geostatistically using robust variogram estimators to produce a validated linear model of coregionalization. This was then used to predict the composition of seabed sediments at the nodes of a fine grid. The predictions were back-transformed to the original scales of measurement by a Monte Carlo integration over the prediction distribution on the transformed scale. This approach allowed the probability to be computed for each class in a classification of seabed sediment texture, at each node on the grid. The probability of each class, and derived information such as the class of maximum probability could therefore be mapped. Predictions were validated at a set of 2000 randomly sampled locations. The class of maximum probability corresponded to the observed class with a frequency of 0.7, and the uncertainty of this prediction was shown to depend on the absolute probability of the class of maximum probability. Other tests showed that this geostatistical approach gives reliable predictions with meaningful uncertainty measures. This provides a basis for rapid mapping of seabed sediment texture to classes with sound quantification of the uncertainty. Remapping to revised class definitions can also be done rapidly, which will be of particular value in habitat mapping where the seabed geology is an important factor in biotope modelling
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