Cliometrics and the Nobel

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Intragroup Subgroup Attitude Clustering, External Intervention, and Intergroup Interaction Patterns: Toward a Dynamical Model of Protracted Intergroup Conflict

Scholars and practitioners working with protracted conflicts in polarized communities have long recognized the complex dynamics between intragroup disputes and intergroup relations in these settings. In fact, the multitude of factors interacting within and between groups in these conflicts, and their tendency to change over time, largely contributes to their intractable natures. Unfortunately, the ability of scholars to conduct research on such dynamic phenomena has been largely constrained by the atomistic, linear approach of traditional research models and methods. However, recent advances in dynamical systems theory have provided a new set of tools for developing computer simulations that allow us to model the dynamic patterns emerging from complex interactions of multiple variables over time. This paper presents one such model: a dynamical model of protracted intergroup conflict. Using data collected from Israeli and Palestinian communities during the current Intifada, we modeled the dynamic relations between conflict escalation and international intervention on intragroup subgroup attitude clustering and patterns of intergroup interactions. Next steps and refinements for the model are discussed